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Summary If the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants as it appears, the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the United States into the fray. Analysis At this point the situation on the ground in Mumbai remains unclear following the militant attacks of Nov. 26. But in order to understand the geopolitical significance of what is going on, it is necessary to begin looking beyond this event at what will follow. Though...

If the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants as it appears, the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the United States into the fray. At this point the situation on the ground in Mumbai remains unclear following the militant attacks of Nov. 26. But in order to understand the geopolitical significance of what is going on, it is necessary to begin looking beyond this event at what will follow. Though the situation...

Numerous Minneapolis-Saint Paul area EMS agencies, headed by the U.S. Secret Service, undertook special preparations to handle EMS operations during the Republican National Convention held Sept 1-4, 2008. Following is an inside account of the experience along with some lessons to take away for future events. Fake Ambulance Spotted On Tuesday, the second day of the RNC, a Twin Cities Paramedic spotted an "ambulance" with unusual generic markings in the city of St. Paul. The medic had attended RNC briefings on the need for heightened awareness, and as an Iraq War Veteran, he was well-educated and possessed a keen eye...

Barack Obama has been elected president of the United States by a large majority in the Electoral College. The Democrats have dramatically increased their control of Congress, increasing the number of seats they hold in the House of Representatives and moving close to the point where — with a few Republican defections — they can have veto-proof control of the Senate. Given the age of some Supreme Court justices, Obama might well have the opportunity to appoint at least one and possibly two new justices. He will begin as one of the most powerful presidents in a long while. Truly...

The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery.

The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified. The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power August 12, 2008 By George Friedman Strategic Forecasting Inc. The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict...

The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery. This, as we have argued, has opened a window of opportunity for the Russians to reassert their influence in the former Soviet sphere. Moscow did not have to concern itself...

Dr. Jeffrey W. Runge, chief medical officer at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, told a congressional subcommittee on July 22 that the risk of a large-scale biological attack on the nation is significant and that the U.S. government knows its terrorist enemies have sought to use biological agents as instruments of warfare. Runge also said that the United States believes that capability is within the terrorists’ reach. Runge gave his testimony before a subcommittee on Emerging Threats, Cybersecurity, and Science and Technology that was holding a field hearing in Providence, R.I., to discuss the topic of “Emerging Biological Threats...

Al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri is rumored to have been killed in a July 28 U.S. airstrike in Pakistan

Five years have now passed since the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Vice President Dick Cheney, in Iraq with Sen. John McCain — the presumptive Republican nominee for president — summarized the five years by saying, “If you reflect back on those five years, it’s been a difficult, challenging, but nonetheless successful endeavor. We’ve come a long way in five years, and it’s been well worth the effort.” Democratic presidential aspirant Sen. Hillary Clinton called the war a failure. The invasion of Iraq probably was a mistake, and certainly its execution was disastrous. But a unilateral and precipitous withdrawal by the...

....Our view was that the Bush administration would go to war in Iraq not because it saw it as a great idea, but because its options were to go on the defensive against al Qaeda and wait for the next attack or take the best of a bad lot of offensive actions. The second option consisted of trying to create what we called the “coalition of the coerced,” Islamic countries prepared to cooperate in the covert war against al Qaeda. Fighting in Afghanistan was merely a holding action that alone would solve nothing. So lacking good options, the administration chose...

In the introduction to Strategic Forecasting’s 2008 forecast, Dr. George Friedman writes that “...the US-jihadist war is entering its final phase,” and that “...the destruction of al Qaeda’s strategic capabilities now allows the US to shift its posture…and enables Washington to begin drawing down its forces.” He could not be more wrong. To begin, we're not fighting a “jihadist” war. We're fighting a global war on terrorism that involves the use of all the elements of national power: diplomatic, informational, military, and economic. Our fight is not just with the “jihadists” in the Middle East, but with those individuals worldwide...

The Geopolitical Foundations of Blackwater By George Friedman For the past three weeks, Blackwater, a private security firm under contract to the U.S. State Department, has been under intense scrutiny over its operations in Iraq. The Blackwater controversy has highlighted the use of civilians for what appears to be combat or near-combat missions in Iraq. Moreover, it has raised two important questions: Who controls these private forces and to whom are they accountable? The issue is neither unique to Blackwater nor to matters of combat. There have long been questions about the role of Halliburton and its former subsidiary,...

All U.S. presidents eventually become lame ducks, though the lameness of any particular duck depends on the amount of power he has left to wield. It not only is an issue of the president's popularity, but also of the opposition's unity and clarity. In the international context, the power of a lame duck president depends on the options he has militarily. Foreign powers do not mess with American presidents, no matter how lame one might be, as long as the president retains military options. The core of the American presidency is in its role as commander in chief. With all...

Domestic politics in most countries normally are of little interest geopolitically. On the whole this is true of the United States as well. Most political debates are more operatic than meaningful, most political actors are interchangeable and the distinctions between candidates rarely make a difference. The policies they advocate are so transformed by Congress and the Supreme Court -- the checks and balances the Founding Fathers liked so much, coupled with federalism -- that the president rarely decides anything. snip Therefore, we need to begin handicapping the presidency as we did in 2004, looking for patterns. In other words, policy...

The Estonian government announced July 12 that it will challenge the European Commission over the 2008-2013 carbon dioxide quotas that the organization established for the Baltic states. The European Union's target is to cut carbon emissions by 20 percent by 2020 across the union in conjunction with the international Kyoto agreement's target of decreasing emissions from 1990 levels by 8 percent by 2012. The carbon emissions cap is also meant to push the European Union toward more environmentally friendly energy sources and decrease its energy dependence on Russia. However, several European countries believe the carbon caps will increase their dependence...

After days of avoiding an all-out assault on the mosque/madrassa complex, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf reportedly has issued orders to storm the Pakistani capital of Islamabad's Red Mosque. The government also has claimed that Islamist militants holed up in the mosque include both wanted hard-core Pakistani jihadists as well as foreign fighters -- mostly Arabs -- affiliated with al Qaeda. The six-day security operation to dislodge Islamist militants from the Red Mosque thus appears to have entered a decisive stage.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush will meet July 1-2 at the Bush family compound in Kennebunkport, Maine. The two will have several meaty items on their plate, including the planned U.S. missile defense shield in Central Europe and Russia's threat to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. The main dish, however, will be Kosovo -- again. This issue has been on the table since 1999, when the United States and its NATO allies, angered over Serbian behavior in Kosovo, ignored Russian objections and waged a 60-day air war against Yugoslavia. The...

The ground war has begun. Several Israeli brigades now appear to be operating between the Lebanese border and the Litani River. Hezbollah forces are dispersed in multiple bunker complexes and are launching rockets from these and other locations. Hezbollah's strategy appears to be threefold. First, force Israel into costly attacks against prepared fortifications. Second, draw Israeli troops as deeply into Lebanon as possible, forcing them to fight on extended supply lines. Third, move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure...

Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder Israel lives with three realities: geographic, demographic and cultural. Geographically, it is at a permanent disadvantage, lacking strategic depth. It does enjoy the advantage of interior lines -- the ability to move forces rapidly from one front to another. Demographically, it is on the whole outnumbered, although it can achieve local superiority in numbers by choosing the time and place of war. Its greatest advantage is cultural. It has a far greater mastery of the technology and culture of war than its neighbors. Two of the realities cannot be changed. Nothing can be done about geography...

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking ...on June 27, mentioned the need to start negotiations for replacing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1), set to expire in 2009. ... Russia feels that it would benefit from the mutual inspections which START-1 requires -- a reversal from Moscow's previous position. Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles are coming to the end of their shelf-lives, and the new SS-27 model is not yet online. The access to U.S. weapons and surveillance programs that comes with the inspections would benefit Russia's already robust research and development, as well as provide verification of the United States' capabilities....

As the tension mounts over a possible North Korean ballistic missile test, the United States leaked indications Tuesday that it has activated its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed a report printed in the Washington Times that the United States has switched the system from testing status to operational status. Realistically, the BMD system becoming "operational" is less likely than an actual North Korean missile launch -- but like the North Korean launch preparations, perception is more important than reality. The BMD system consists of an integrated series of early warning and...

Iraq: Next Moves for the Shia By George Friedman In "Break Point," a piece we published about three weeks ago, we made the argument that the war in Iraq had reached the critical point. A basic political deal had been made between the three major groups in Iraq -- the Sunnis, Shia and Kurds -- and that the Sunnis at that point either would begin to contain the insurgency, or the situation could not be contained. As we put it then, "First, in response to the deal that has been made, can the Sunni political leadership move decisively to end...

The Presidency: Deepening Questions By George Friedman Readers know that we have been tracking one issue almost above all others since last fall: the strength of the Bush presidency. The question that emerged following Hurricane Katrina was whether the administration would become a classic failed presidency or whether, having flirted with disaster, it would recover. Last week, the first indicator (apart from routine approval polls) came in: Congress, in essence, blocked a deal that would have put a state-run company from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in charge of several U.S. ports.

The subscription site, STRATFOR or Strategic Forecasting, Inc. - issues almost daily a TERRORISM INTELLIGENCE REPORT with a self described "track record on accurate, insightful global intelligence and analysis earning itself a reputation as the world’s most respected private intelligence company". Strafor's Fred Burton updates the ongoing cartoon controversy (02.21.2006)as follows : "Fatwas and Rewards: An Inflection Point in the Cartoon Controversy" (I have highlighted key points received today via e-mail). "Two minor Shariah courts in India's Uttar Pradesh state have issued fatwas calling for the death of a Danish cartoonist who drew caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed. The fatwas,...

[...] Second, this time the entire process -- production, delivery, editing and airing -- was carried out in the short span of 10 days. The tape obviously was made sometime after Jan. 19 -- when U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney reacted to the offer of truce from Osama bin Laden by saying the United States does not negotiate with terrorists -- because al-Zawahiri mentions both in his remarks. It would appear, then, that al Qaeda not only has improved its ability to produce videos, but also is cutting down on the time it takes to get a tape to Al...

Source: Stratfor.com Dissecting the 'Chinese Miracle' By Peter Zeihan The "Chinese miracle" has been a leading economic story for several years now. The headlines are familiar: "China's GDP Growth Fastest in Asia." "China Overtakes United Kingdom as Fourth-Largest Economy." "China Becomes World's Second-Largest Energy Consumer." "China Revises GDP Growth Rates Upward -- Again." Everywhere, one can find news articles about China, rising like a phoenix from the economic debris of its Maoist system to change and challenge the world in every way imaginable. But just like the phoenix, the idea of an inevitable Chinese juggernaut is a myth. Moreover, Western...

Stratfor, a private intelligence and security consulting organization, has released a 10-year geopolitical forecast predicting the decline of China and Russia, the rise of Japan, the disintegration of the European Union and the continued dominance of the United States. Stratfor said its forecast, released Monday, is based on its ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world. The forecast is intended to help its clients (including corporations, governments, and financial institutions) form long-range strategic plan by "identifying potential risks and opportunities." According to the 2005-2015 forecast, the United States will continue...

(CNSNews.com) - Stratfor, a private intelligence and security consulting organization, has released a 10-year geopolitical forecast predicting the decline of China and Russia, the rise of Japan, the disintegration of the European Union and the continued dominance of the United States. Stratfor said its forecast, released Monday, is based on its ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world. The forecast is intended to help its clients (including corporations, governments, and financial institutions) form long-range strategic plan by "identifying potential risks and opportunities." According to the 2005-2015 forecast, the United States...

Stratfor Founder Said 9/11 Attack Designed to Draw U.S. into Combat Intelligence Expert Noted Jihadi Victory Over USSR As Watershed Event Addressing JINSA’s Board of Directors on November 14 2004, Dr. George Friedman, founder and chairman of Stratfor, the world’s leading privately held intelligence company, discussed al Qaeda’s origins and explained how that history ties to both the events of September 11 as well as the current war in Iraq. According to Friedman, the war in Iraq was born out of the Cold War. His conclusion comes mainly from the fact that the U.S. trained Islamic jihadists so that they...

A new audiotaped communique allegedly from Osama bin Laden surfaced Dec. 27. On the tape, the al Qaeda leader calls upon Iraqis to boycott the Jan. 30 elections and announces that top Iraqi jihadist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is the network's representative in Iraq. This message shows that al Qaeda is very much interested in becoming a player in Iraq. That al Qaeda officially has announced al-Zarqawi's affiliation with the militant network also indicates that al Qaeda may be weakening -- or returning to its old tactics. Analysis Arabic-language satellite channel Al Jazeera reported that it has received a...

Ukraine will hold a rerun of its presidential runoff election Dec. 26. Like the original presidential election between candidates Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and opposition Viktor Yushchenko, this election is sure to cause controversy in Ukraine. Summary Ukraine will hold a rerun of its presidential runoff election Dec. 26. Like the original presidential election between candidates Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and opposition Viktor Yushchenko, this election is sure to cause controversy in Ukraine. Analysis After the Ukrainian Supreme Court's decision to nullify the country's hotly contested presidential runoff election, the country will hold a rerun of the election Dec....

On Dec. 13, 2003, U.S. troops found former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein hiding in a hole near Tikrit, his hometown. Hussein's capture was heralded as a turning point in the war, a sign that coalition forces were indeed making progress against the insurgency. A year later, Stratfor reflects on an insurgency that has taken on a distinct life of its own. In the wake of the insurgency's deadliest attack against U.S. forces Dec. 21 in Mosul, we continue this four-part series with part two, a look at the nationalist guerrilla movement. Summary Of the three main guerrilla movements in Iraq...

The Russian defeat in Ukraine is nearly complete. In presidential runoff elections, the Ukrainian government's candidate, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, won the official ballot. However, protests launched by opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko over alleged election fraud -- combined with strong international pressure -- caused the results to be overturned. New elections will be held Dec. 26, and Yushchenko is widely expected to win. Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, in an effort to deny Yushchenko the powers that he himself has enjoyed, succeeded in forcing the Ukrainian opposition to accept constitutional amendments that will transfer some presidential powers to the Parliament, but...

WARNING: Do not embarrass yourself by interepting this as an editorial and posting your ill-founded objections to its implications. It is a four cornered piece of analysis, nothing more. Ax. Summary After being re-elected leader of Germany's opposition Christian Democratic Union on Dec. 6, Angela Merkel spoke out against multiculturalism and condemned Berlin's attempts to integrate ethnic communities. Merkel's statements echo the sentiments of a certain earlier German government, and the re-emergence of right-wing parties there could portend another shift in the country's policies toward foreigners. Analysis Angela Merkel, leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Party, lambasted Germany's policies...

Deutsche Bank recommended in a Nov. 30 report that Russian state energy firm Gazprom "buy Yuganskneftegaz, Yukos's main production unit, as part of a wider strategy to increase its presence in the oil sector." Deutsche Bank went on to recommend that Gazprom -- already the world's largest natural gas firm with production of 540 billion cubic meters annually and exports of 190 billion cubic meters -- also snap up Surgutneftegaz and Sibneft, Russia's fourth- and fifth-largest oil firms. Gazprom would then have annual oil production pushing 4 million barrels per day (bpd), making it a top mover and shaker in...

Why are we in Iraq? It is not, as some ranters claim, because George Bush is stupid and bloodthirsty and John Howard a spineless crawler. Nor is it because the US has regressed to Wilsonian imperialism. For those seriously interested in the question I recommend a seriously interesting new book, America's Secret War by George Friedman. Friedman is founder of Stratfor, a private, subscription-financed global intelligence service, which I find consistently well-informed. Friedman writes of the struggle in Iraq in relentlessly Realpolitik terms. -snip- From this fortress headquarters, Friedman writes, al-Qa'ida ("the Base" in English) pressed its grand design for...

Summary The U.S. Embassy in India issued a statement saying the U.S. Consulate General in Mumbai would be closed Nov. 23 after threats of possible attacks. The warning lacked specifics, and considering that most militant activity in India has been away from centers of U.S. interests, the closure and warning are likely a precautionary, proactive measure. Analysis The U.S. Consulate General in the western Indian city of Mumbai was closed after receiving threats of possible attacks, the U.S. Embassy announced Nov. 23. No specifics were provided in the statement, which said the move was taken after the receipt of information...

Summary State-run radio in Tehran reported that Iran has suspended uranium enrichment and all related activities. Despite several recent accusations that could undermine Iran's agreement with Britain, France and Germany to suspend its nuclear program, Iran's desire to strengthen its bargaining power with the international community and ward off threats from the United States ensures the deal will stand. Analysis Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said Nov. 22 that Tehran has suspended its nuclear and uranium enrichment program. In Vienna, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei said the claim appears true and seemingly includes a suspension of operations...

Summary Pakistani authorities Nov. 22 released on bail the husband of the country's top opposition politician. Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's regime likely will try to use this decision to co-opt the secular opposition. Given the circumstances of the release, it is unlikely that a deal will be struck between the opposition and Islamabad. Analysis Asif A. Zardari was released on bail Nov. 22 after being in prison since 1996 on corruption charges. Zardari is the husband of two-time former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who also leads the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). While the media is rife with speculation...

Summary With pro-Moscow candidate Viktor Yanukovich emerging victorious in Ukraine's presidential runoff, and pro-U.S. challenger Viktor Yushchenko launching a popular revolt in response, Ukraine nears an historic crossroads: Stay with Russia or drift to the West. The stakes are high and the country is sharply divided -- a situation that likely will lead to violence in Ukraine's most significant internal conflict since independence. Analysis With 99.14 percent of the vote counted in Ukraine's presidential runoff election, the Ukrainian Central Election Commission has declared pro-Moscow candidate Viktor Yanukovich the winner, with 49.42 percent of the vote. His pro-Western contender, Viktor Yushchenko,...

Today's diary begins with a rather unusual situation report that Stratfor posted this morning: "1214 GMT - U.S. officials are looking into reports that some 25 Chechen militants might have crossed into Arizona from Mexico sometime in July, a report in the Oct. 13 Washington Times claims. The report of the militant infiltration was initially made in August or September and was based on information from an unidentified intelligence source, the Times reported." The story was from only a single source and that made us question running with it at first, particularly as it seemed so odd. It is not...

Two events occurred in Iran on Oct. 20 that could have a far-reaching impact on the U.S. role in Iraq in particular and the Middle East in general. The first was in the early morning when Hasan Rowhani, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, gave a ringing endorsement to U.S. President George W. Bush's re-election campaign. Naturally, an endorsement from a member of the "Axis of Evil" was quickly rejected by the administration, but it can hardly be dismissed when it comes mere hours after the president acquiesced to the possibility of a Shiite-controlled Islamic republic in Iraq --...

NEW YORK In assessing the final presidential debate Wednesday night, newspaper editorials gave less space to the performance of John Kerry and George W. Bush than to the overall usefulness of the three one-on-one matches. To the surprise of many editorial writers, they found the triple feature to be a truly valuable tool for voters, with most saying they offered a clear view of where each candidate stands. The Chicago Tribune, for example, asked readers to "cherish" the debates. "Like the first two debates," it said, "Wednesday night's rounder in Arizona showcased rugged but revealing politicking between two men who...

Summary The U.S. military says the two deadly bombs that exploded within Baghdad's Green Zone on Oct. 14 likely were smuggled into the sprawling compound. If this is true, security has been breached within the previously impermeable zone -- raising the specter of additional violence within it. Analysis Two bomb blasts inside Baghdad's protected Green Zone on Oct. 14 killed three U.S. civilians and two Iraqis, and injured 13. After first reporting the explosions as caused by mortar rounds, the U.S. military acknowledged that homemade bombs -- apparently smuggled into the compound -- caused the mayhem. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Jamaat...

During the two debates held so far, we have learned three things. First, that George W. Bush never made a mistake. Second, that John Kerry would never have made any of the mistakes Bush made, and that he does not intend to make any mistakes in the future. Third, and most important, that there is precious little substantial disagreement between the two candidates on war strategy going forward. Whatever Kerry has had to say about Bush's execution of the war in the past, he has made it clear that he will continue what Bush calls the "War on Terror"...

In a book published this week, Dr. George Friedman, the founder of the lucid Stratfor, a private for-profit think-tank and intelligence-gathering organization which has been dubbed "the shadow CIA", proposes to explain what the war in Iraq, and the larger "war on terrorism", is really all about. It sure wasn't about WMD hidden in Iraq — one of several public arguments for removing Saddam Hussein which, because it didn't work out, has been hailed by our media (which once bought into the argument but has since cashed out) as the only reason. Yet as both parties in the U.S. election...

Hossein Mousavian, Iran's chief delegate to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated Oct. 6 that Iran had produced "a few tons" of uranium hexafluoride, a critical step in the process of creating a nuclear weapon -- or, if you work for the Iranian press service, to fabricate nuclear fuel for a power reactor. Mousavian insisted that the amount created was purely on an experimental basis and not part of an industrial production process. Experimental indeed. The 37 tons of yellowcake, or processed uranium ore, that Iran has said it will convert to uranium hexafluoride and then on to enriched...

Summary The Interim Iraqi Government is close to forging a deal with radical Shiite Islamist leader Muqtada al-Sadr's movement to integrate the group into the country's evolving political process. While his group is being incorporated into mainstream politics, al-Sadr can not afford to appear to his constituency as accepting the presence of U.S.-led coalition troops in the country. Al-Sadr will likely try to transform his Mehdi Army into a movement along the lines of the Lebanese Shiite Islamist group Hezbollah -- allowing the movement to be a legitimate political group while retaining its anti-occupation character. Analysis The Interim Iraqi Government...

Beneath all the public reasons for invading Iraq lies a secret war agenda that has paid off in the war on al-Qaeda, according to a leading intelligence analyst. Friedman's book, ``America's Secret War: Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between America and its Enemies,'' which goes on sale Tuesday, argues that midway through the war on terrorism, America has made major gains while al-Qaeda has failed in most of its goals and is on the defensive. Iraq, he argues, is a keystone of American strategy against al-Qaeda. ``Doing nothing would have been disastrous,'' Friedman said. Gains against al-Qaeda so far, he...