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Keyword: stratfor

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  • Exposed: Iran's Super Strategy to Crush America in a War

    06/20/2015 3:02:53 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 51 replies
    The National Interest ^ | June 20, 2015 | Zachary Keck, managing editor
    Since assuming office in 2009, President Barack Obama has consistently held that the United States would carry out airstrikes to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This position is supported by the vast majority of U.S. policy makers, lawmakers and the political elite, regardless of political affiliation. Nonetheless, it is also generally agreed that airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities would only have a limited impact on preventing Iran from acquiring the bomb. To be sure, a concerted airstrike effort against Iran would delay its ability to build a nuclear arsenal by several years. Nonetheless, Iran would be able to...
  • Stratfor has 11 chilling predictions for what the world will look like a decade from now

    06/18/2015 6:52:59 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 34 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 06/18/2015 | Armin Rosen
    The private intelligence firm Strategic Forecasting, or Stratfor, recently published its Decade Forecast in which it projects the next 10 years of global political and economic developments. In many ways, Stratfor thinks the world of 10 years from now will be more dangerous place, with US power waning and other prominent countries experiencing a period of chaos and decline. 1. Russia will collapse ... "There will not be an uprising against Moscow, but Moscow's withering ability to support and control the Russian Federation will leave a vacuum," Stratfor warns. "What will exist in this vacuum will be the individual fragments...
  • All carriers are in port? Really?

    04/30/2014 12:57:41 AM PDT · by Little Pig · 27 replies
    Stratfor ^ | Self/StratFor
    The current Stratfor Carrier status chart:
  • Stratfor Email: Brennan Behind 'Witch Hunt' of Journalists Reporting Leaks

    05/22/2013 10:06:48 PM PDT · by Nachum · 42 replies
    Breitbart ^ | 5/22/13 | Kerry Picket
    An obscure November 2012 Wikileaks email dump points to former White House counterterrorism adviser and now-CIA chief John Brennan as the person behind the “witch hunt” of journalists who reported unflattering Obama administration leaks. A little over a week after President Barack Obama’s reelection, Wikileaks released an email dump of global intelligence files from the private intelligence company Stratfor. One particular email, dated September 21, 2010 discussed President Obama’s “Leak Investigations.”
  • Leaked: Bin Laden not buried at sea, body moved on CIA plane to US...

    02/11/2013 11:24:55 PM PST · by My Favorite Headache · 107 replies
    Wikileaks ^ | 2/12/13
    The body of Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden was not buried at sea, according to leaked emails of intelligence firm Stratfor, as revealed by WikiLeaks. Stratfor’s vice-president for intelligence, Fred Burton, believes the body was “bound for Dover, [Delaware] on [a] CIA plane” and then “onward to the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Bethesda [Maryland],” an email says. The official version is that the body of Al-Qaeda’s top man, who was killed by a US raid in Pakistan on May 2, 2011, was buried at an undisclosed location at sea in a proper Muslim ceremony. "If body dumped at...
  • Wikileaks - Sudanese Launchpad for Egyptian Attack On Ethiopian Dam

    09/21/2012 8:59:57 AM PDT · by JerseyanExile · 11 replies
    All Africa ^ | September 3, 2012 | Toby Collins
    Egyptian authorities fearful of a monopoly on Nile waters received agreement from Khartoum to build an airbase in Sudan, to launch attacks on Ethiopian damming facilities, claims the anonymous media outlet; Wikileaks. Wikileaks has leaked files allegedly from the Texas-based global intelligence company, Stratfor, which quote an anonymous "high-level Egyptian source," claiming the Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon said in 2010 his nation would do anything to prevent the secession of South Sudan because of the political implications it will have for Egypt's access to the Nile. The Nile is vital in providing fresh water to the people and agricultural projects...
  • Chicago Man Faces Life for Hacking Private Intelligence Company

    11/24/2012 5:11:28 PM PST · by Olog-hai · 10 replies
    Newsmax ^ | Saturday, 24 Nov 2012 03:49 PM | Stephen Feller
    A computer hacker connected to the group Anonymous could face life in prison for stealing credit card, email, and other personal information from a private intelligence company, and posting it on the Internet. The compromised information already has cost the company, Strategic Forecasters, several million dollars in a class-action lawsuit with its customers, one of which is the judge overseeing the criminal case against alleged hacker Jeremy Hammond’s, reported Hammond, a member of LulzSec, an offshoot of the hacktivist collective Anonymous, is accused of breaking into Strategic Forecasters’ servers and collecting thousands of emails, credit card numbers and pieces...
  • LulzSec 'Leader' Turns on Fellow Hacktivists: Feds

    03/06/2012 9:02:03 PM PST · by Olog-hai · 7 replies
    ABC News via Yahoo News ^ | March 6, 2012 | RICHARD ESPOSITO, AARON KATERSKY and PIERRE THOMAS
    Six members of the suspected computer hacking groups affiliated with Anonymous were charged—including the suspected ring leader, who directed the entire operation from a Manhattan apartment complex—after it was revealed one of the group's most high profile members has been working with federal authorities for months. Hector Monsegur, a 28-year-old American believed to use the name "Sabu" on the internet, was arrested by federal agents last year and has been cooperating with law enforcement ever since, officials said. He pleaded guilty last August, a plea unsealed in federal court in Lower Manhattan today. At least four of the five other...
  • WikiLeaks: McCain knew Obama team stuffed ballot boxes bribed Jackson took Russian money in 2008

    04/22/2012 6:20:38 AM PDT · by IbJensen · 37 replies
    Coach Is Right ^ | 4/22/2012 | Kevin “Coach” Collins
    According to internal Emails circulated among the staff at Stratfor, an Austin Texas based private intelligence gathering firm, John McCain was presented with proof that Democrats in Pennsylvania and Ohio used voter fraud to win those states and committed other disturbing crimes. The communiqués were stolen and made public by WikiLeaks. An Email dated November 7, 2008 under the subject line “ Insight – The Dems & Dirty Tricks ** Internal Use Only – Pls Do Not Forward **,” was sent by Fred Burton, Stratfor’s V.P. of Intelligence. It said in part, The black Dems were caught stuffing the ballot...
  • WikiLeaks: McCain knew Obama team stuffed ballot boxes, bribed Jackson; took Russian money in 2008

    04/22/2012 7:34:16 AM PDT · by jmaroneps37 · 45 replies ^ | April 22, 2012 | Kevin "Coach" Collins
    According to internal Emails circulated among the staff at Stratfor, an Austin Texas based private intelligence gathering firm, John McCain was presented with proof that Democrats in Pennsylvania and Ohio used voter fraud to win those states and committed other disturbing crimes. The communiqués were stolen and made public by WikiLeaks. An Email dated November 7, 2008 under the subject line “ Insight – The Dems & Dirty Tricks ** Internal Use Only – Pls Do Not Forward **,” was sent by Fred Burton, Stratfor’s V.P. of Intelligence. It said in part, "The black Dems were caught stuffing the ballot...
  • Hacktivist's Mom Has a Few Questions for Anonymous

    03/15/2012 8:48:25 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 4 replies ^ | March 16, 2012 | John Ransom
    When hacktivist Jeremy Hammond was arrested last week in Chicago as a part of a wide government investigation in the online group Anonymous, his mother, Rose Collins, called him a genius without any wisdom. “Again?” she asked when informed by the Chicago Tribune that her son had been arrested for hacking. “I love my son, but he is a genius with no brain. He has a 168 IQ, but he has no wisdom.”  In an attempt to educate the world at-large about the dangers of Anonymous, Rose Collins reached out to Townhall Finance and spoke about Jeremy and Anonymous. She ended by asking a...
  • ARRESTS Sow Mistrust Inside a Clan of Hackers [@BarrettBrownLOL Statement on Yesterday's FBI Raid]

    03/07/2012 4:58:43 PM PST · by fight_truth_decay · 5 replies
    NYT ^ | March 6, 2012 | SOMINI SENGUPTA
    For months, The Real Sabu, as he called himself on Twitter, boasted, cursed and egged on his followers to take part in computer attacks against private companies and government agencies worldwide. “Don’t give in to these people,” he wrote on Monday, ridiculing “cowards” in the federal government. “Fight back. Stay strong.” It turns out that Sabu had become an informant for federal law enforcement authorities. On Tuesday, in what could be one of the biggest breakthroughs in the government crackdown on a loose, large confederation of politically inspired “hacktivists,” he was unmasked and revealed to have helped the authorities catch...
  • Five arrested in high-profile cyberattacks [ Anonymous - LMAO!! ]

    03/06/2012 9:54:32 PM PST · by NoLibZone · 8 replies
    CNN ^ | March 7 2012 | Susan Candiotti,
    Top members of the computer hacker group "Anonymous" and its offshoots were arrested and charged Tuesday after a wide-ranging investigation used the help of a group leader who was working as a secret government informant. Five of the suspects, considered by investigators among the "most sophisticated hackers in the world," were arrested in the United States and Europe and charged in a Manhattan federal court over their alleged role in high-profile cyberattacks against government agencies and large companies, according to an indictment. A sixth man, Hector Xavier Monsegur, a notorious hacker known as "Sabu," pleaded guilty in August to computer...
  • WikiLeaks Publishes Intelligence Firm’s E-Mails [Stratfor]

    02/27/2012 7:07:46 AM PST · by fight_truth_decay · 25 replies ^ | February 27, 2012 | SOMINI SENGUPTA
    <p>WikiLeaks said Monday that it had begun to expose e-mail correspondence from the global geopolitical analysis firm known as Stratfor, detailing the company’s work for clients.</p> <p>WikiLeaks did not disclose how it had obtained the e-mails, but Stratfor acknowledged in December that its data servers had been breached by a group of hackers known as Anonymous. The loose-knit group publicly supports WikiLeaks.</p>
  • Wikileaks publishes millions of emails stolen from US think tank

    02/27/2012 6:48:37 AM PST · by nuconvert · 9 replies
    Notorious whistleblowing website WikiLeaks has published five million emails from a geopolitical analysis company that Reuters likened to a “shadow CIA.” The emails, stolen in late December from the U.S.-based company, could reveal private information on Stratfor readers and subscribers, the details of sensitive sources, and even throw light on the intelligence-gathering community, Reuters reported. According to a WikiLeaks statement accompanying the posting of the documents, they reveal the inner workings of the intelligence publisher, which works with companies such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and various government agencies.
  • The State of the World: A Framework [Which Candidate Is Strongest On Meta-Geopolitical Issues?]

    02/21/2012 10:34:42 AM PST · by fight_truth_decay
    Stratfor ^ | February 21, 2012 | 0959 GMT | By George Friedman
    The evolution of geopolitics is cyclical. Powers rise, fall and shift. Changes occur in every generation in an unending ballet. However, the period between 1989 and 1991 was unique in that a long cycle of human history spanning hundreds of years ended, and with it a shorter cycle also came to a close. The world is still reverberating from the events of that period. On Dec. 25, 1991, an epoch ended. On that day the Soviet Union collapsed, and for the first time in almost 500 years no European power was a global power, meaning no European state integrated economic,...
  • Anonymous exposes 75,000 credit card numbers

    01/01/2012 2:43:56 PM PST · by NoLibZone · 43 replies
    washington post ^ | 1-1-2012 | Jolie O'Dell
    Hacker collective Anonymous has just dumped 200 GB of names, email addresses and passwords for around 860,000 Stratfor users. Anonymous also exposed credit card numbers for 75,000 paying customers of Stratfor. Stratfor, a security think tank, provides reports on international security and related threats to government and military personnel as well as to the private sector. It is unknown whether Anonymous gained access to other, more sensitive information during the Stratfor hacks, which occurred on December 24. “The time for talk is over,” wrote Anonymous last night on Pastebin. “It’s time to dump the full 75,000 names, addresses, CCs and...
  • Occupy Wall Street hackers steal U.S. Military Member Credit Card Data

    12/26/2011 9:21:41 AM PST · by Erik Latranyi · 14 replies
    Mr Conservative Blog ^ | 26 December 2011 | Blog Admin
    Reference: ‘Anonymous’ is the name of a collective group of activist hackers who originally posted videos scheduling the Occupy Wall Street protests. These videos spread virally and played a significant role in the O.W.S. grassroots campaign. The hacker collective ‘Anonymous’ says it has stolen four thousand emails, passwords and credit card details from a US-based security think-tank “Stratfor”. Stratfor’s clients include the US Department of Defense, US Air Force, Apple, law enforcement agencies and media organizations. Anonymous said the list it had posted was a small slice of the 200 gigabytes worth of plunder it stole from Stratfor and promised...
  • Hackers target US security think tank (Stratfor)

    12/25/2011 6:50:57 AM PST · by markomalley · 15 replies
    AP ^ | 12/25/11 | CASSANDRA VINOGRAD
    Hackers on Sunday claimed to have stolen 200 GB of e-mails and credit card data from United States security think tank Stratfor, promising a weeklong Christmas-inspired assault on a long list of targets. Members of the loose hacking movement known as "Anonymous" posted a link on Twitter to what it said was Stratfor's secret client list - including the U.S. Army, the U.S. Air Force, Goldman Sachs and MF Global. "Not so private and secret anymore?," the group taunted in a message on the microblogging site. Anonymous said it was able to get credit details, in part, because Stratfor didn't...
  • Stratfor disputes OBL killing in Abbottabad

    08/21/2011 9:54:00 PM PDT · by hamboy · 72 replies
    The Nation on the Web of Pakistan! ^ | August 19, 2011 | Azhar Masood
    ISLAMABAD - Globally recognised intelligence and forecast STRATFOR has rejected the US Central Intelligence Agency claim that the man killed in Abbottabad’s compound by US Naval SEALs was al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden. This was one of the reasons the CIA kept Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in dark. The STRATFOR says: “The possibility that bin Laden was already dead and in terms of his impact on terrorist operations, he effectively was. That does not mean, however, that he was not an important ideological leader or that he was not someone the United States sought to capture or...
  • Obama and the Arab Spring

    05/26/2011 6:44:50 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 6 replies ^ | May 26, 2011 | George Friedman
    U.S. President Barack Obama gave a speech last week on the Middle East. Presidents make many speeches. Some are meant to be taken casually, others are made to address an immediate crisis, and still others are intended to be a statement of broad American policy. As in any country, U.S. presidents follow rituals indicating which category their speeches fall into. Obama clearly intended his recent Middle East speech to fall into the last category, as reflecting a shift in strategy if not the declaration of a new doctrine. While events in the region drove Obama’s speech, politics also played a strong...
  • Intelligence Agency Predicts Escalated Violence in Northern Mexico

    05/03/2011 1:35:20 PM PDT · by SwinneySwitch · 11 replies
    KRGV ^ | 05/03/2011 | Kirk Chaisson
    WESLACO - A new report from the global intelligence agency STRATFOR says the ongoing struggle between the Gulf Cartel and Zetas will likely lead to escalating violence in the city of Reynosa in the coming months. The report says the Sinaloa Cartel continues to grow, while many other cartels are weakening. With the breakdown in the structure of organizations, it will make gangs like the Zetas even more dangerous in the coming months. "Fragmented cells of the basic command structure of the organization are now pretty much running amok. As you look at that, it's a very dangerous environment to...
  • Egypt: Important Announcement To Be Made Soon - Parliament Speaker

    01/28/2011 1:44:19 PM PST · by LowTaxesEqualsProsperity · 71 replies
    Egyptian parliament Speaker Fathi Sorour said an important announcement would be made soon, Al Arabiya reported Jan. 28.
  • Strategy site to Obama: End alliance with Israel

    01/17/2011 10:20:05 AM PST · by sukhoi-30mki · 39 replies
    World Tribune ^ | January 12, 2011
    Wednesday, January 12, 2011 INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING Strategy site to Obama: End alliance with Israel WASHINGTON — A newsletter-publisher said to have ties with the Obama administration has called on Washington to end its strategic alliance with Israel. George Friedman, publisher of Stratfor, has published a book that called on the Obama administration to reorder U.S. foreign policy. Friedman has argued that the key element of the proposal required the end of U.S. strategic ties with Israel and bolstering of cooperation with the Islamic world, particularly Iran and Pakistan. "The United States must quietly distance itself from Israel," Friedman says in...
  • Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 7, 2009 (Narco State)

    12/09/2009 9:19:29 AM PST · by AuntB · 6 replies · 836+ views
    Stratfor Global security ^ | Dec. 8, 2009 | Stratfor
    Presumed members of Los Zetas staged a brazen prison raid Dec. 4 in Escobedo, Nuevo Leon state, killing two state police officers guarding the prison and freeing 23 inmates. At the same time in nearby Juarez, Zetas engaged a Mexican military unit in a firefight in an apparent attempt to distract the superior security force away from the prison. While details are still coming in, the incident highlights the uphill battle the Mexican government is fighting as it tries to professionalize its law enforcement ranks. Los Zetas have shown before that they will go to great lengths to protect and...
  • RED ALERT - Possible Geopolitical Consequences of the Mumbai Attacks

    11/27/2008 6:20:25 PM PST · by 2ndDivisionVet · 26 replies · 1,705+ views
    Stratfor ^ | November 26, 2008
    Summary If the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants as it appears, the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the United States into the fray. Analysis At this point the situation on the ground in Mumbai remains unclear following the militant attacks of Nov. 26. But in order to understand the geopolitical significance of what is going on, it is necessary to begin looking beyond this event at what will follow. Though...
  • Red Alert: Possible Geopolitical Consequences of the Mumbai Attacks (Open Access)

    11/27/2008 5:33:47 AM PST · by Xth Legion · 55 replies · 2,462+ views
    Stratfor ^ | 11/27/2008 | Stratfor
    If the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants as it appears, the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the United States into the fray. At this point the situation on the ground in Mumbai remains unclear following the militant attacks of Nov. 26. But in order to understand the geopolitical significance of what is going on, it is necessary to begin looking beyond this event at what will follow. Though the situation...
  • Fake Ambulance Spotted at RNC

    11/13/2008 3:46:15 PM PST · by BCW · 32 replies · 2,512+ views
    EMS Responder ^ | 31 OCT 2008 | DAVE LONG
    Numerous Minneapolis-Saint Paul area EMS agencies, headed by the U.S. Secret Service, undertook special preparations to handle EMS operations during the Republican National Convention held Sept 1-4, 2008. Following is an inside account of the experience along with some lessons to take away for future events. Fake Ambulance Spotted On Tuesday, the second day of the RNC, a Twin Cities Paramedic spotted an "ambulance" with unusual generic markings in the city of St. Paul. The medic had attended RNC briefings on the need for heightened awareness, and as an Iraq War Veteran, he was well-educated and possessed a keen eye...
  • Vanity: Obama's Challenge

    11/05/2008 5:09:48 PM PST · by kralcmot · 24 replies · 816+ views
    Stratfor email | Nov 5 2008 | George Friedman
    Barack Obama has been elected president of the United States by a large majority in the Electoral College. The Democrats have dramatically increased their control of Congress, increasing the number of seats they hold in the House of Representatives and moving close to the point where — with a few Republican defections — they can have veto-proof control of the Senate. Given the age of some Supreme Court justices, Obama might well have the opportunity to appoint at least one and possibly two new justices. He will begin as one of the most powerful presidents in a long while. Truly...
  • The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power

    08/14/2008 2:21:01 PM PDT · by Braak · 11 replies · 183+ views
    Stratfor ^ | August 12, 2008 | George Friedman
    The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery.
  • The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power

    08/13/2008 8:29:27 AM PDT · by SJackson · 21 replies · 267+ views
    Stratfor ^ | 8-13-08 | George Friedman
    The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified. The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power August 12, 2008 By George Friedman Strategic Forecasting Inc. The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict...
  • The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power

    08/13/2008 11:39:55 AM PDT · by Ravnagora · 15 replies · 150+ views ^ | August 12, 2008 | George Friedman
    The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery. This, as we have argued, has opened a window of opportunity for the Russians to reassert their influence in the former Soviet sphere. Moscow did not have to concern itself...
  • Busting the Anthrax Myth

    08/03/2008 6:56:34 AM PDT · by sig226 · 4 replies · 119+ views
    Stratfor ^ | 7/30/08 | Fred Burton and Scott Stewart
    Dr. Jeffrey W. Runge, chief medical officer at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, told a congressional subcommittee on July 22 that the risk of a large-scale biological attack on the nation is significant and that the U.S. government knows its terrorist enemies have sought to use biological agents as instruments of warfare. Runge also said that the United States believes that capability is within the terrorists’ reach. Runge gave his testimony before a subcommittee on Emerging Threats, Cybersecurity, and Science and Technology that was holding a field hearing in Providence, R.I., to discuss the topic of “Emerging Biological Threats...
  • Pakistan: More Rumors of Al-Zawahiri's Death [Zawahiri Killed in US airstrike?]

    08/01/2008 11:23:17 AM PDT · by PajamaTruthMafia · 57 replies · 536+ views
    Stratfor ^ | 8/01/08 | Stratfor
    Al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri is rumored to have been killed in a July 28 U.S. airstrike in Pakistan
  • Stratfor's War: Five Years Later ( Bush, FDR, JFK Lied To Effect Foreign Policy )

    03/18/2008 7:22:56 PM PDT · by fight_truth_decay · 33 replies · 899+ views
    Stratfor ^ | March 18, 2008 | 1855 GMT | By George Friedman
    Five years have now passed since the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Vice President Dick Cheney, in Iraq with Sen. John McCain — the presumptive Republican nominee for president — summarized the five years by saying, “If you reflect back on those five years, it’s been a difficult, challenging, but nonetheless successful endeavor. We’ve come a long way in five years, and it’s been well worth the effort.” Democratic presidential aspirant Sen. Hillary Clinton called the war a failure. The invasion of Iraq probably was a mistake, and certainly its execution was disastrous. But a unilateral and precipitous withdrawal by the...
  • stratfors_war_five_years_later

    03/18/2008 6:01:30 PM PDT · by kralcmot · 11 replies · 475+ views
    Stratfor Strategic Forecasting ^ | 3/18/2008 | George Friedman
    ....Our view was that the Bush administration would go to war in Iraq not because it saw it as a great idea, but because its options were to go on the defensive against al Qaeda and wait for the next attack or take the best of a bad lot of offensive actions. The second option consisted of trying to create what we called the “coalition of the coerced,” Islamic countries prepared to cooperate in the covert war against al Qaeda. Fighting in Afghanistan was merely a holding action that alone would solve nothing. So lacking good options, the administration chose...
  • The Geopolitical Foundations of Blackwater

    10/11/2007 7:14:30 PM PDT · by brityank · 1 replies · 120+ views
    Email from Stratfor ^ | 10/10/2007 | George Friedman
    The Geopolitical Foundations of Blackwater By George Friedman For the past three weeks, Blackwater, a private security firm under contract to the U.S. State Department, has been under intense scrutiny over its operations in Iraq. The Blackwater controversy has highlighted the use of civilians for what appears to be combat or near-combat missions in Iraq. Moreover, it has raised two important questions: Who controls these private forces and to whom are they accountable? The issue is neither unique to Blackwater nor to matters of combat. There have long been questions about the role of Halliburton and its former subsidiary,...
  • Window of Opportunity; Window of Vulnerability (Knock! Knock! Who's There?...Russia!)

    08/21/2007 4:21:59 PM PDT · by fight_truth_decay · 7 replies · 611+ views
    Stratfor Premium ^ | August 21, 2007 Tuesday 1854 GMT | GEORGE FRIEDMAN
    All U.S. presidents eventually become lame ducks, though the lameness of any particular duck depends on the amount of power he has left to wield. It not only is an issue of the president's popularity, but also of the opposition's unity and clarity. In the international context, the power of a lame duck president depends on the options he has militarily. Foreign powers do not mess with American presidents, no matter how lame one might be, as long as the president retains military options. The core of the American presidency is in its role as commander in chief. With all...
  • Gaming the U.S. Elections

    07/27/2007 8:28:26 AM PDT · by Rockitz · 24 replies · 537+ views
    Stratfor ^ | July 26, 2007 | George Friedman
    Domestic politics in most countries normally are of little interest geopolitically. On the whole this is true of the United States as well. Most political debates are more operatic than meaningful, most political actors are interchangeable and the distinctions between candidates rarely make a difference. The policies they advocate are so transformed by Congress and the Supreme Court -- the checks and balances the Founding Fathers liked so much, coupled with federalism -- that the president rarely decides anything. snip Therefore, we need to begin handicapping the presidency as we did in 2004, looking for patterns. In other words, policy...
  • Estonia: Challenging the EU Carbon Cap

    07/13/2007 4:53:20 PM PDT · by Tailgunner Joe · 462+ views ^ | July 13, 2007
    The Estonian government announced July 12 that it will challenge the European Commission over the 2008-2013 carbon dioxide quotas that the organization established for the Baltic states. The European Union's target is to cut carbon emissions by 20 percent by 2020 across the union in conjunction with the international Kyoto agreement's target of decreasing emissions from 1990 levels by 8 percent by 2012. The carbon emissions cap is also meant to push the European Union toward more environmentally friendly energy sources and decrease its energy dependence on Russia. However, several European countries believe the carbon caps will increase their dependence...
  • Geopolitical Diary: The War Between Pakistan and its Ex-Proxies

    07/08/2007 6:38:11 PM PDT · by elhombrelibre · 10 replies · 836+ views
    STRATFOR ^ | 9 Jul 07 | Unkonwn
    After days of avoiding an all-out assault on the mosque/madrassa complex, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf reportedly has issued orders to storm the Pakistani capital of Islamabad's Red Mosque. The government also has claimed that Islamist militants holed up in the mosque include both wanted hard-core Pakistani jihadists as well as foreign fighters -- mostly Arabs -- affiliated with al Qaeda. The six-day security operation to dislodge Islamist militants from the Red Mosque thus appears to have entered a decisive stage.
  • A Return to Kosovo

    06/30/2007 1:24:19 PM PDT · by Jane_N · 3 replies · 338+ views
    Stratfor ^ | June 26, 2007 | By George Friedman
    Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush will meet July 1-2 at the Bush family compound in Kennebunkport, Maine. The two will have several meaty items on their plate, including the planned U.S. missile defense shield in Central Europe and Russia's threat to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. The main dish, however, will be Kosovo -- again. This issue has been on the table since 1999, when the United States and its NATO allies, angered over Serbian behavior in Kosovo, ignored Russian objections and waged a 60-day air war against Yugoslavia. The...
  • Stratfor: Red Alert: The Battle Joined

    07/21/2006 11:05:26 AM PDT · by STFrancis · 64 replies · 2,787+ views
    Stratfor intelligence ^ | 07/21/2006 |
    The ground war has begun. Several Israeli brigades now appear to be operating between the Lebanese border and the Litani River. Hezbollah forces are dispersed in multiple bunker complexes and are launching rockets from these and other locations. Hezbollah's strategy appears to be threefold. First, force Israel into costly attacks against prepared fortifications. Second, draw Israeli troops as deeply into Lebanon as possible, forcing them to fight on extended supply lines. Third, move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure...
  • STRATFOR: Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder

    07/13/2006 4:05:51 PM PDT · by RobFromGa · 24 replies · 1,957+ views
    email | July 13, 2006 | Stratfor special report
    Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder Israel lives with three realities: geographic, demographic and cultural. Geographically, it is at a permanent disadvantage, lacking strategic depth. It does enjoy the advantage of interior lines -- the ability to move forces rapidly from one front to another. Demographically, it is on the whole outnumbered, although it can achieve local superiority in numbers by choosing the time and place of war. Its greatest advantage is cultural. It has a far greater mastery of the technology and culture of war than its neighbors. Two of the realities cannot be changed. Nothing can be done about geography...
  • Putin's Strategy of Persuasion

    06/27/2006 6:14:35 PM PDT · by Tailgunner Joe · 1 replies · 291+ views
    Stratfor ^ | June 27, 2006
    Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking ...on June 27, mentioned the need to start negotiations for replacing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1), set to expire in 2009. ... Russia feels that it would benefit from the mutual inspections which START-1 requires -- a reversal from Moscow's previous position. Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles are coming to the end of their shelf-lives, and the new SS-27 model is not yet online. The access to U.S. weapons and surveillance programs that comes with the inspections would benefit Russia's already robust research and development, as well as provide verification of the United States' capabilities....
  • Geopolitical Diary: Another Bluff in the Korean Missile Game?

    06/20/2006 6:29:23 PM PDT · by Momaw Nadon · 19 replies · 625+ views
    STRATFOR ^ | Wednesday, June 21, 2006 | STRATFOR
    As the tension mounts over a possible North Korean ballistic missile test, the United States leaked indications Tuesday that it has activated its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed a report printed in the Washington Times that the United States has switched the system from testing status to operational status. Realistically, the BMD system becoming "operational" is less likely than an actual North Korean missile launch -- but like the North Korean launch preparations, perception is more important than reality. The BMD system consists of an integrated series of early warning and...
  • Iraq: Next Moves for the Shia [STRATFOR]

    06/15/2006 10:27:30 AM PDT · by RobFromGa · 11 replies · 778+ views
    Stratfor (via email) | June 14, 2006 | George Friedman
    Iraq: Next Moves for the Shia By George Friedman In "Break Point," a piece we published about three weeks ago, we made the argument that the war in Iraq had reached the critical point. A basic political deal had been made between the three major groups in Iraq -- the Sunnis, Shia and Kurds -- and that the Sunnis at that point either would begin to contain the insurgency, or the situation could not be contained. As we put it then, "First, in response to the deal that has been made, can the Sunni political leadership move decisively to end...
  • The Presidency: Deepening Questions

    03/14/2006 5:25:16 PM PST · by farlander · 54 replies · 1,343+ views
    STRATFOR ^ | Tue, Mar 14, 2006 | George Friedman
    The Presidency: Deepening Questions By George Friedman Readers know that we have been tracking one issue almost above all others since last fall: the strength of the Bush presidency. The question that emerged following Hurricane Katrina was whether the administration would become a classic failed presidency or whether, having flirted with disaster, it would recover. Last week, the first indicator (apart from routine approval polls) came in: Congress, in essence, blocked a deal that would have put a state-run company from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in charge of several U.S. ports.
  • Shariah Courts Issue Fatwas,Religious Scholar Offers Reward For Death of Cartoonist (Rushdie Case)

    02/21/2006 7:29:44 PM PST · by fight_truth_decay · 8 replies · 560+ views
    02.21.2006 | fight_truth_decay
    The subscription site, STRATFOR or Strategic Forecasting, Inc. - issues almost daily a TERRORISM INTELLIGENCE REPORT with a self described "track record on accurate, insightful global intelligence and analysis earning itself a reputation as the world’s most respected private intelligence company". Strafor's Fred Burton updates the ongoing cartoon controversy (02.21.2006)as follows : "Fatwas and Rewards: An Inflection Point in the Cartoon Controversy" (I have highlighted key points received today via e-mail). "Two minor Shariah courts in India's Uttar Pradesh state have issued fatwas calling for the death of a Danish cartoonist who drew caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed. The fatwas,...
  • Al-Zawahiri Tape: Key Insights into Al Qaeda (leaders in NWFP, not Tribal Territories)

    02/03/2006 7:50:03 PM PST · by Stultis · 18 replies · 1,095+ views
    [...] Second, this time the entire process -- production, delivery, editing and airing -- was carried out in the short span of 10 days. The tape obviously was made sometime after Jan. 19 -- when U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney reacted to the offer of truce from Osama bin Laden by saying the United States does not negotiate with terrorists -- because al-Zawahiri mentions both in his remarks. It would appear, then, that al Qaeda not only has improved its ability to produce videos, but also is cutting down on the time it takes to get a tape to Al...