[thoughtomator]

It's a set-up of expectations that won't be met. Where in the world would those 15% come from? Bush has a solid base of just under 50%.

[Josh in PA]

15% isn't happening.

40% of the people in this country are 100% for GWB. The alternative media (Rush, Sean, etc..) has cemented us in place in this regard that you can throw out the book on history.


Worst case post-convention poll might show Kerry by 8 or 9 IMO. Something like 49-41.

[nwrep]

Bush has a solid base of just under 50%.

That is nonsense. Bush has a solid base of around 40%, similar to Kerry. A 15 point swing in Kerry's (or Bush's favor) is very conceivable.

[jimbo123]

http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a39a0dd66179a.htm

Flashback:

Polls: Gore Jumps, Biggest Bounce in 40 Years

Flashback:

http://www.canoe.ca/CNEWSUSElection0008/02_poll.html

Tracking poll suggests Bush getting a bounce from convention

[RichInOC]

My first reaction was sort of like FairOpinion's...i.e., "what in the world is Matt Dowd thinking?". Then I got around to my second thought, which was closer to yours, that maybe he's trying to sandbag Kerry. Devious. Let's hope it works.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

In that case, Kerry should not announce his VP pick until the day before the election.

Otherwise he peaks way to soon. </sarcasm>

[Honestfreedom]

This is based on the theory that the average American has a tiny attention span and can only remember what they saw on TV ten minutes ago. After the Democrat convention in 2000 Al Gore had a big surge. I knew one woman who said that for the first time in her life she was thinking of voting for a Democrat. Now I did not watch the convention but Al Gore had been a presidential candidate as long ago as 1988. What new looks could possibly have come from the convention? The thing that does scare me about this election is that with all the talk of what a jerkoff Kerry is, he is still tied for the lead. If he ever does start campaigning effectively what happens. Of course if the econmy stays good and Iraq improves Bush should win.

[TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig]

Where in the world would those 15% come from?

Easy. They will just start polling "registered and unregistered humanoids"

All kidding aside they will release polling data showing Kerry leading by 20 points among adults nationwide or a 15% lead among voting age adults.

It won't mean a thing because the numbers for likely voters will be static.

[Reactionary]

"Fluctuating wildly," huh?

What a complete joke.

[Servant of the 9]

It's a set-up of expectations that won't be met.

No kidding.

Kerry will be lucky to get a 5 point bump for one week on the VP pick. Some of his candidates could actually drive his numbers down.

The convention won't gain him 3 points if the VP is already known.

So9

[paul51]

It's a set-up of expectations that won't be met

Exactly. Mathematically impossible

[Dead Dog]

I agree. This isn't a typical race, There aren't 15% available voters.