I htink I am going to be ill.
I think Bush's strategist shouldn't be running around making such predictions, he should be working on a strategy to make sure it does NOT happen.
He should be fired.
I agree. Unlesshe knows who Kerry will pick and that they expect the reaction to temporarily be in the Communists favor. It must be Hitlery for a 15 point swing.
I think he is being honest and setting expectations based on previous trends.
Take a deep breath......this sounds like they are setting Kerry up.....now what happens if Kerry doesn't get that 15pt bump?
Whoaaaaa! Did you see that this article is from AP?
My guess is that Kerry will get a bump, but no way near 15%. When Kerry doesn't get the 'expected' 15%, it makes Kerry's support look weak.
I expect a large swing towards Kerry due to the fawning coverage of the media, but your suggestion is not too bad. Bush has actually made a comback in the last month, but the campaign for most of the year has been lackluster.
Don't take it so hard. This is the Bush camp playing the expectations game. There's only a few % points out there to swing. Kerry will pick up a few of the undecideds between now and the week after the 'Rat convention. But they'll still be largely undecided and after priming the pump for a huge 15% point swing, when that doesn't happen the Bush campaign can rightly point out that the public is not very excited about the 'Rat nominee.
Bush is going to clean Kerry's clock in November.
There really isn't a way to prevent this swing in public opinion. Three events will get major play: -- a multi-million dollar ad blitz by Kerry (he's got to use or lose lots of money before the convention)---his VP pick and ---the convention itself.
All three will combine and give a temporary boost and lead to Kerry.
I think the Bush strategist is right to prepare us.
The event which will drive this temporary bump are outside his control. He's right to prepare the public for this bump; I see it as analogous to a company preparing the market when earnings will fall short of expectations.
I agree.
No, he's just making sure that the President's supporters are not caught unawares when Kerry gets his convention bump.
Don't forget, Dukakis came out of his convention 17 points ahead of #41, and got his clock cleaned in the General Election.
There are lots of people who may state a preference for Pres. Bush now, then 'change their minds' with the excitement of the Dem convention. Many will come back to the President before the election. Then there are a fair number who haven't even started paying attention; remember, that 50% is of the registered and many times likely voters. There are lots of other folks who will be polled in the next few weeks who will be just checking out the field of candidates and who will be making an emotional judgement based on an ad, or something like that. Once they start paying attention, it will be time to put the squeeze on em!
Remember how Republicans were joining in the chorus that said Al Gore would do well in the debates?
There's no way Gore could have met the expectation...and his reputation suffered as a result.
And how would you do that exactly? Dukakis had 17 points on Bush in 1988. The final result was large the other way. I would be amazed if Kerry only got 15%, considering how this was all scheduled in advance by the Leftist Conspiracy: (1) Abu Ghraib (which Moore knew about last year, and likely told CBS about); (2) Fahrenheit 9/11; (3) VP announcement; (4) Convention. It was all timed perfectly by the other side, which controls all of the vital media in this nation.
Perhaps it's just a little reverse psychology...
He is going off of past presidential races. No need to worry. They are expecting and planning for this. When the Republican Convention occurs, you would, historically see a big jump in the Bush numbers as well.
>>He should be fired.
When the bounce turns out to be only 10% - he tells everyone it's because of him.
That is exactly what he is doing. Hold fast. Do not let fear move you.
Hold your ground, hold your ground. I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me. A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day.
An hour of wolves and shattered shields, when the age of men comes crashing down, but it is not this day.
This day we fight! By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!
Our brothers in arms laying their lives on the line for us very single day.
The very least we can do is remain constant and support them.
Let nothing move you.