Posted on 07/13/2004 2:16:31 PM PDT by Citizen of the Savage Nation
Bush - 49% Kerry - 47% Undecided - 4% MOE - +/- 4.3% Sample - 546 LV
For some reason, my Mozilla doesn't like these PDF sites on SUSA but it works on Explorer just fine. Last poll was Bush 47% Kerry 45%.
No Kerry bounce found in AR. Bush leads 4:3 among Whites, Kerry leads 8:1 among Blacks, Kerry leads by 16 among <40k/yr earners, Bush leads by 36 among >80k/yr earners. Bush holds 94% of base, Kerry 84% of base, Undecideds swing 5:4 to Bush.
All of these point to a likely Bush win in AR, IMO.
Among Certain Voters, Bush leads 50% to 47%. Bush gets 72% of Hispanic and 48% of Asians. Kerry only leads in 65+ age group, 53-44...Bush leads in all other age groups. Kerry leads 47-39 in Probable voters - seems heavily weighted to CV over PV, I guess SUSA suspects many of the PV won't vote.
They identified 488 as "certain voters" and only 58 as "probable voters". That is why they are weighted as they are.
I can't believe that 24% of the Arkansans that call themselves "conservatives" are planning to vote for JFnK.
Exactly.. no conservative with half a brain will vote for JF'nK.
What are you talking about?!? I heard JFK himself say he's pro life! And he's a war hero!
Arkansas is a tough state, but I don't see Hanoi John going over well there.
I will be shocked if Kerry takes FL (which means he wins in Nov for sure).
The point is closing fast that GWB must start to take a lead and hold it -
French Kerry could win AR if Bush doesn't challenge Kerry's claim of being a repentant gun grabber.
I damn well hope that's an October Suprise.
In any event, that 10 pt shift in FL from SUSA seems awful dubious, akin to SUSA's Bush down by 1 in CA poll a few months back. Edwards is not Joe Lieberman, this bounce is too much, especially with Bush gaining ground in ME, NH back to tossup after flirting with Kerry, and gaining ground in NC and VA.
I'd agree with this statement - As for FL...what I just find troubling...is it seems like GWB can't pull away - When the FL economy is going gang-busters...and when typically Republicans that have won have carried the State by around a 58% margin -
I also find the latest polls out of MO troubling...in that...it is just hard for me to understand how GWB could be in a life and death struggle in MO (a moderate / conservative State) - Only 2 explanations ....1. He is running an inept campaign...2. There is really and anti-GWB shift out there -
Because it can't be anything else - we hear from everyone else on here...THAT NO ONE PAYS ATTENTION until after Labor day anyway - It is one of those things that I find odd...When we are down in the polls...some people on here yell..."no one pays attention until after labor day"...yet in the next breath they say "the press is so negative...what do you expect...GWB should be down" -
Well, not if they aren't paying attention to the press...as you seem to suggest when it comes to polls??? Hey?
Digging deep into SUSA's FL results, one finds some odd and interesting facts. Bush and Kerry were splitting the female vote last time but now Kerry leads by 12 (Edwards pick preying on the ditzy female subgroup?). Kerry leads among ALL age groups except middle aged voter (very odd for SUSA past polling). Bush getting only 34% of the Hispanic vote.
And here's the kicker...their breakdown was 37% R, 38% D, and 24% I, compared with 41% R, 34% D, 24% I on 6/12. I should've looked at this earlier, this is HUGE. I mean HUGH. That methodology switch alone gave Kerry 8 out of the 10 pts. Not to mention the amount of Independents was vastly overrepresented. Food for thought.
That obviously shows the difference - but with that said - what is the weightings of FL to begin with? 41R -34D seems a little high for us R's (doesn't it??).
I don't know which sample is closer to the truth. I suspect the one for June is a more normal turnout and this poll's ratio was more like 2000. The R's have good majorities in both state legislator chambers, that couldn't happen, or at least, would be very unlikely to happen, if turnouts were like that. I would like to hear more from someone who knows more about Florida.
The FL General Assembly is heavily GOP because, JEB took every gay, black, and Jew and packed them into hyper RAT districts. In fact 3/4 of the FL RAT legislators are either black or Jewish. Redistricting in FL was a masterpiece of GOP gerrymandering.
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