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Every election cycle has its winners and losers: not just the among the candidates, but also the pollsters. On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates. Other polling firms, like SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac University, produced more reliable results in Senate and gubernatorial races. A firm that conducts surveys by Internet, YouGov, also performed relatively well. What...

New polling in three key states shows the GOP on track to hold one seat, pick up another, and perhaps remain within striking distance of an upset. In Pennsylvania, where Democrat Arlen Specter got forcibly retired in a primary, Pat Toomey leads by seven in a new Franklin & Marshall poll among likely voters — and leads by two in a larger group of registered voters as well. F&M says that claims of a Democratic surge in Pennsylvania were unfounded: Pennsylvania appears to light up noticeably red ahead of Tuesday’s voting in the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, according to...

Much learning out of California, in SurveyUSA's latest pre-election tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. United States Senator Barbara Boxer, Democrat, nominally trails Republican incumbent Carly Fiorina among California likely voters interviewed on their home telephones, but, among voters who do not have a home telephone, and who were interviewed by SurveyUSA on their cellphone, Boxer leads 2:1. When the two groups are proportionally blended, SurveyUSA pegs it as Boxer 46%, Fiorina 44%, very much within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error, and still too close to call, but...

Research conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego and KPIX-TV in San Francisco. Full results and tracking graphs can be found here.

(CBS 5) – The third time may be the charm for Republican David Harmer as he tries to get elected to Congress, according to a KPIX-TV CBS 5 poll released Tuesday. The poll, conducted for CBS 5 by SurveyUSA, found Harmer edges out Democratic Congressman Jerry McNerney in California’s 11th congressional district by 48% to 42%.

Worth flagging if only because this is the last comparison point we’ll have before tonight’s debate blockbuster. I’m searching for the silver lining in the crosstabs, but … help me out. The pollster’s reputable, the sample is enormous and limited to likely voters, and it’s right in the same range of all the other numbers we’ve been seeing lately — except a bit worse. (This is the first poll, I think, to put the margin at +20.) It was also taken over the last few days, which means the effect of her “I’m not a witch� ad is probably priced...

NY State: Paladino's 15 Minutes Are Over; Gillibrand Voters Take Their Foot Off the Brake; Attorney General Contest is Fiercely Fought with Slight Edge to Democrat: Democrats in New York State soar to victory in 3 statewide contests and lead narrowly in a 4th if votes were cast today, 10/10/10, 23 days until votes are counted, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WABC-TV in New York City, WHEC-TV Rochester, and WNYT-TV Albany. Andrew Cuomo distances. In the Governor contest, Andrew Cuomo puts his boot on the neck of Carl Paladino, 57% to 34%, after a week in which Paladino...

SurveyUSA is out with new numbers on the California Senate and gubernatorial races and both Democratic nominees are maintaining their recent polling leads. In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 46%-43%, while Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown is up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman in the state's gubernatorial race, 47%-43%.

In statewide elections in California today 10/04/10, as early voting begins, 3 high-profile contests are fiercely fought, separated by 5 or fewer points, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA polling for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. In the race for US Senator, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer clings today to a narrow 46% to 43% advantage. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 12 days ago, Boxer is down 3 points; Republican Carly Fiorina is flat. Seniors are moving toward Boxer; voters under age 50 are giving Fiorina another look. In the race for...

Two new polls Monday showed Democrat Jerry Brown leading Republican Meg Whitman in the race for governor, but the modest point spread indicates it will likely remain a tight contest to the finish. The Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls were the first taken since celebrity Los Angeles attorney Gloria Allred revealed last week that Whitman had employed an illegal immigrant housekeeper for nine years -- a story that has dominated the campaign ever since. The polls were released on a day when KGO-AM in San Francisco announced that a radio debate between Whitman and Brown scheduled for today had been canceled....

CA, Democrats Cling to Ever-So-Slight Advantages In Governor, Senator, Lt Gov Contests; 'Yes' 7 Puffs Ahead of 'No' on Marijuana: In statewide elections in California today 10/04/10, as early voting begins, 3 high-profile contests are fiercely fought, separated by 5 or fewer points, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA polling for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. In the race for US Senator, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer clings today to a narrow 46% to 43% advantage. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 12 days ago, Boxer is down 3 points; Republican Carly Fiorina...

WASHINGTON – Two stunning new polls show appointed first-term Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand with a race on her hands – and one has her clinging to a one-point lead over Republican Joe DioGuardi. Gillibrand leads her opponent by a margin of just 45-44 among likely voters in the SurveyUSA poll, which has her carrying the five boroughs but losing upstate. MORE: CUOMO WITH 33-POINT LEAD OVER PALADINO MORE: AG RACE TIGHT In another new poll by Quinnipiac University, Gillibrand leads DioGuardi 48-42 among likely voters. That poll has independent voters splitting nearly evenly between the two candidates, with 41 percent for...

Welcome to California … the Red State. At least that’s what Survey USA finds in its latest poll of likely voters in the gubernatorial and Senate races, where Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina still lead. Fiorina barely edges Barbara Boxer in what is really a dead heat, but Whitman still beats Jerry Brown outside the margin of error — and the former two-term Governor still remains stuck at 40%: Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer remains locked in a tight fight with Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV...

SurveyUSA: Whitman 47%, Brown 40%; Fiorina 48%, Boxer 46%

You’ll remember that Rasmussen has actually been the good news poll for Barbara Boxer in her re-election campaign. The last Field Poll showed her trailing Carly Fiorina, and so did Survey USA, while Rasmussen at the same time had her up five points, 45/40. Now her Rasmussen firewall shows signs of crumbling as it has her lead down to a single point, 44/43: Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina are now essentially tied in California’s U.S. Senate race, moving the state from Leans Democratic to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen ReportsElection 2010 Senate Balance of Power...

SurveyUSA just released a poll showing that Dino Rossi has a seven point lead over Patty Murray. But RasmussenReports just showed Patty Murray with a four point lead. These poll differences are too great, 11 points, to be an issue of sampling error. So which is poll is correct? I'm really surprised at Rasmussen being this sloppy. Their poll included the option to answer, "Some other candidate." Four percent chose this option. But Washington state does not allow third-party candidates. Only the top two candidates, regardless of party, compete in the general election. The other major candidates, besides Murray and...

A new CBS5/SurveyUSA Poll shows Republican Carly Fiorina now with a 5-point lead over incumbent Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer in the California Senate Race. California Republican U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina has increased her lead over Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer to five percentage points according to a new CBS 5 KPIX-TV poll released Thursday, which also shows gubernatorial candidates Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman in a dead heat. The CBS 5 poll, conducted by the research firm SurveyUSA, showed Fiorina edging Boxer 47 percent to 42 percent, compared to a CBS 5 poll one month ago showing Fiorina...

California Republican U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina has increased her lead over Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer to five percentage points according to a new CBS 5 KPIX-TV poll released Thursday, which also shows gubernatorial candidates Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman in a dead heat. The CBS 5 poll, conducted by the research firm SurveyUSA, showed Fiorina edging Boxer 47 percent to 42 percent, compared to a CBS 5 poll one month ago showing Fiorina over Boxer 47 to 45 percent. The poll results indicated Fiorina's support was essentially unchanged among men and women, young and old, white and...

Real Clear Politics, the political web site that aggregates polls and handicaps races from all over the country has moved Sen. Barbara Boxer’s reelection race against Carly Fiorina to the Tossup category, bringing to 10 the number of Senate races that polls indicate are going to be the most competitive this fall. The site has a historical look at what’s happened to the polls since last March when the Field Poll showed Democrat Boxer up by 30 points. The most recent Field Poll has Boxer up by 3 percentage points over Republican Fiorina. An automated poll – SurveyUSA – has...

California Democratic senator Barbara boxer is trailing Republican challenger Carly Fiorina by 2 points--47% to 45%--in a new SurveyUSA poll of likely voters released this evening. Fiorina has been closing in on Boxer--cutting the Democrat's lead from six, to five, to four, to three points in the last four polls--but this is the first public poll showing Fiorina in the lead.

5 Months Till Oregon Votes, Former Trailblazer Edges Former Governor for Statehouse; Wyden Strong in US Senate Re-Elect Bid: In an election for Oregon governor today, 06/10/10, Republican Chris Dudley edges Democrat John Kitzhaber, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland. Dudley, a former professional basketball player, has a 14-point lead among men. Among women, the race is tied. When men and woman are combined today, the Republican Dudley has a 47% to 40% advantage. A third candidate, Progressive Jerry Wilson, today gets 6% of the overall vote, 12% of the vote among Independents. Third party...

Turning to California, we noted last week that a poll, this one by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), indicated Carly Fiorina had moved ahead of Tom Campbell, albeit the two candidates were both within the margin of error. Still, the poll was significant in that Campbell had consistently been narrowly ahead of Fiorina for weeks and this was the first poll to reverse that trend. We wondered at the time if the poll could have been an outlier. Late yesterday Survey USA released a poll which threw cold water on the idea that the PPIC poll was an...

In case you were wondering whether last night’s hotly debated Survey USA numbers were outliers, wonder no longer. It’s hard to build name recognition in a state as big and expensive as California, and Fiorina is the only one of the Senate candidates who’s known to more than half of Republican primary voters. 46% have a favorable opinion of her to 17% with a negative one and 37% having no opinion. By comparison 54% of voters have no opinion about Campbell to 28% with a positive one and 19% with an unfavorable one, and DeVore is even less well known...

A new KPIX-TV CBS 5 poll of likely Republican primary voters finds that Carly Fiorina has shot to the top of the nomination race for U.S. Senate, and Meg Whitman has retaken a huge lead in the gubernatorial race, as well. But the latest poll, released Monday, shows Whitman recapturing the lead by 27 points with a 54%-27% advantage over Poizner -- a wild swing of 25 points in less than two weeks. The poll numbers for the Senate race show Fiorina with 46%, former Congressman Tom Campbell at 23%, and Chuck DeVore at 14%. This represents a 34-point net...

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE -- DeVore for California today released the results of a campaign poll undertaken by Adam Geller of National Research, Inc. The poll, conducted among likely voters on May 19th and 20th, with a margin of error of +/-5%, revealed the following candidate standings in the Republican race for the nomination to face Barbara Boxer in November: Fiorina 28% Campbell 26% DeVore 19% According to this poll, all three Republicans are well within one anothers' margin of error, and the spread between first and last place is in single digits. These results are broadly consonant with most of...

Can this be for real? From Carly Fiorina's Twitter feed: @CarlyforCA Breaking news: Fiorina 46%, Campbell 23%, DeVore 14% according to new Survey USA poll. Proof that hard work pays off! This, I'm told by the Fiorina campaign, was just reported on television on L.A. The last SurveyUSA poll showed Fiorina trailing Campbell 35% to 24%, with DeVore in third at 15%. So, if true, this new poll would represent a huge swing--such a huge swing that I'm curious to see the actual poll.

Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #16075

In Virginia, New High For McDonnell, Comfortable Leads for Other Republicans in VA Statewide Contests: Two weeks until votes are counted in the election for Virginia Governor, Republican Bob McDonnell continues to dominate Democrat Creigh Deeds, according to a SurveyUSA poll for WJLA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released two weeks ago, McDonnell is up 5 points; Deeds is down 3. Today, it's McDonnell 59%, Deeds 40%. McDonnell leads among both men and women, young and old, rich and poor, educated and less-educated, and in all regions of the state. In the contest for...

A new poll gives Terry McAuliffe a double digit lead over Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds, his Democratic rivals for Governor. But a majority of likely Democratic voters who responded to the News7 SurveyUSA poll say they may still change their mind. But the bad news for all of the Democrats, Republican Bob McDonnell leads each of them in general election match-ups, though Deeds is closest with a difference of five percentage points. Here is a look at the results: Asked of 409 likely Democratic primary voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.9% If the Democratic...

As early voting begins on six state of California ballot propositions, opposition is growing to 5 of the 6 measures, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. Because turnout in a special election is typically low, and because voters do not focus until the last minute, many 'likely voters' interviewed by SurveyUSA say they are not yet certain how they will vote on the measures. Any outcome remains possible. On Proposition 1A, The Rainy Day Budget Stabilization and Accountability Fund, 42% of voters today are certain...

Obama 51%, McCain 45% LV 38%-Dem, 33%-Rep, 22%-Ind

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama? 46% McCain (R) 50% Obama (D) 2% Other 2% Undecided Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll...

New Poll has McCain up by 9 in PA. What about scrappy Joe..??

Poll: Democrat Ahead In Louisiana Special Election A new SurveyUSA poll in Louisiana shows Democrats on track to win this Saturday's special election to fill the vacancy of former Rep. Richard Baker (R), who resigned in February to become a lobbyist. The poll shows conservative Democrat Don Cazayoux with 50% support, with 41% for GOP candidate Woody Jenkins, a longtime controversial fixture in Louisiana politics. This seat has not been held by a Democrat since the 1970s, and the district voted 59% for President Bush in 2004, so a Dem win here would be big news indeed.

Re: Obama's Numbers [John Hood] Rich, I'm told that a new Survey USA poll for a NC television station today will put Clinton within five points of Obama. So, yeah, assume a roomful of scaredy cats over at Obama HQ.

Exclusive poll: Romney closing in on McCain Monday, February 04, 2008 (KABC) -- With the California primary just 24 hours away, an exclusive Eyewitness News poll conducted by Survey U.S.A. has delivered some surprising new developments in the race for president. On the Republican side, former Governor Mitt Romney is closing in on Arizona Senator John McCain. According to the exclusive poll by Survey U.S.A. the contest should best be characterized as too-close-to-call. McCain remains in the lead with 39 percent of the vote, while Romney is just three points behind at 36. Meanwhile, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and...

CA Conservatives Race to Romney, But Is That Enough To Leapfrog McCain on Primary Eve? 24 hours till votes are counted in the California Republican Primary, Mitt Romney has pulled close enough to John McCain that the contest should best be characterized as too-close-to-call, according to SurveyUSA's 12th pre-primary tracking poll. Among all likely Republican Primary voters, it's McCain 39%, Romney 36%, others in single digits. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago, conducted before Rudolph Giuliani withdrew from the contest, McCain is up 2, Romney is up 11. McCain had led by 12, now by 3, within...

Versus Hillary: 43% McCain 53% Clinton 37% Giuliani 57% Clinton 34% Romney 60% Clinton 30% Huckabee 63% Clinton Versus Obama: 45% McCain 47% Obama 41% Giuliani 50% Obama 36% Romney 55% Obama 28% Huckabee 60% Obama Geography Surveyed: Massachusetts Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/21/2007 10:10 AM ET Sponsor: WBZ-TV Boston Sample: 542 RVs MoE: ± 4.2%

Versus Hillary: 38% McCain 57% Clinton 36% Giuliani 58% Clinton 34% Huckabee 58% Clinton 33% Romney 58% Clinton Versus Obama: 39% McCain 52% Obama 36% Giuliani 56% Obama 33% Huckabee 56% Obama 32% Romney 57% Obama Geography Surveyed: California Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/21/2007 10:10 AM ET Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KFSN-TV Fresno, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco Sample: 512 RVs MoE: ± 4.4%

Versus Hillary: 40% Giuliani 55% Clinton 37% McCain 57% Clinton 35% Romney 60% Clinton 33% Huckabee 59% Clinton Versus Obama: 46% Giuliani 48% Obama 43% McCain 47% Obama 36% Huckabee 54% Obama 36% Romney 54% Obama Geography Surveyed: New York Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/21/2007 10:10 AM ET Sponsors: WABC-TV New York, WHEC-TV Rochester, WNYT-TV Albany Sample: 503 RVs MoE: ± 4.4%

Versus Hillary: 46% McCain 48% Clinton 42% Giuliani 52% Clinton 40% Romney 53% Clinton 40% Huckabee 54% Clinton Versus Obama: 50% McCain 44% Obama 45% Giuliani 48% Obama 43% Romney 50% Obama 42% Huckabee 51% Obama Geography Surveyed: Virginia Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/20/2007 3:40 PM ET Sponsors: WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC Sample: 546 RVs MoE: ± 4.3%

Versus Hillary: 50% McCain 43% Clinton 49% Giuliani 42% Clinton 49% Huckabee 44% Clinton 46% Romney 45% Clinton Versus Obama: 54% McCain 36% Obama 52% Giuliani 36% Obama 52% Huckabee 37% Obama 48% Romney 39% Obama Geography Surveyed: Alabama Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/20/2007 3:35 PM ET Sponsor: WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola Sample: 544 RVs MoE: ± 4.3%

Versus Hillary: 50% McCain 44% Clinton 46% Huckabee 47% Clinton 45% Giuliani 47% Clinton 44% Romney 48% Clinton Versus Obama: 53% McCain 35% Obama 51% Huckabee 38% Obama 50% Giuliani 40% Obama 46% Romney 40% Obama Geography Surveyed: Kentucky Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/20/2007 3:35 PM ET Sponsors: WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WHAS-TV Louisville Sample: 534 RVs MoE: ± 4.3%

Versus Hillary: 58% McCain 35% Clinton 53% Huckabee 39% Clinton 51% Giuliani 39% Clinton 49% Romney 43% Clinton Versus Obama: 56% McCain 36% Obama 52% Giuliani 38% Obama 50% Huckabee 41% Obama 44% Romney 43% Obama Geography Surveyed: Kansas Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/20/2007 3:35 PM ET Sponsors: KCTV-TV Kansas City, KWCH-TV Wichita Sample: 529 RVs MoE: ± 4.3%

Versus Hillary: 46% McCain 46% Clinton 42% Giuliani 50% Clinton 42% Huckabee 50% Clinton 40% Romney 51% Clinton Versus Obama: 44% McCain 46% Obama 40% Giuliani 50% Obama 40% Huckabee 51% Obama 38% Romney 50% Obama Geography Surveyed: Oregon Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/19/2007 11:30 AM ET Sponsor: KATU-TV Portland Sample: 537 RVs MoE: ± 4.3%

Versus Hillary: 47% McCain 49% Clinton 43% Giuliani 52% Clinton 41% Huckabee 54% Clinton 41% Romney 55% Clinton Versus Obama: 43% McCain 50% Obama 38% Giuliani 55% Obama 37% Huckabee 55% Obama 35% Romney 57% Obama Geography Surveyed: State of Washington Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/19/2007 11:30 AM ET Sponsors: KATU-TV Portland, KING-TV Seattle Sample: 513 RVs MoE: ± 4.4%

Versus Hillary: 48% McCain 45% Clinton 46% Giuliani 49% Clinton 45% Huckabee 49% Clinton 44% Romney 50% Clinton Versus Obama: 51% McCain 40% Obama 49% Giuliani 44% Obama 46% Romney 44% Obama 46% Huckabee 45% Obama Geography Surveyed: New Mexico Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/19/2007 11:30 AM ET Sponsor: KOB-TV Albuquerque Sample: 523 RVs MoE: ± 4.4%

Versus Hillary: 49% McCain 42% Clinton 42% Giuliani 45% Clinton 42% Romney 47% Clinton 40% Huckabee 49% Clinton Versus Obama: 44% McCain 46% Obama 40% Giuliani 48% Obama 36% Huckabee 52% Obama 35% Romney 53% Obama Geography Surveyed: Wisconsin Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/18/2007 1:10 PM ET Sponsors: KSTP-TV Minneapolis, SurveyUSA America's Pollster, WDIO-TV Duluth Sample: 542 RVs MoE: ±4.3%

Versus Hillary: 45% McCain 45% Clinton 40% Giuliani 49% Clinton 40% Romney 51% Clinton 39% Huckabee 51% Clinton Versus Obama: 47% McCain 38% Obama 46% Giuliani 40% Obama 42% Romney 43% Obama 42% Huckabee 43% Obama Geography Surveyed: Ohio Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/18/2007 1:10 PM ET Sponsors: WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WYTV-TV Youngstown Sample: 539 RVs MoE: ±4.3%

Versus Hillary: 43% McCain 51% Clinton 41% Huckabee 53% Clinton 40% Giuliani 53% Clinton 36% Romney 58% Clinton Versus Obama: 50% McCain 41% Obama 48% Giuliani 44% Obama 42% Huckabee 47% Obama 42% Romney 48% Obama Geography Surveyed: Minnesota Data Collected: 12/13/2007 - 12/15/2007 Release Date: 12/18/2007 1:05 PM ET Sponsors: KAAL-TV Rochester-Mason City-Austin, KSTP-TV Minneapolis, WDIO-TV Duluth Sample: 556 RVs MoE: ±4.2%