Skip to comments.Survey USA: Coons 54, O’Donnell 33
Posted on 10/13/2010 1:43:04 PM PDT by WebFocus
Worth flagging if only because this is the last comparison point we’ll have before tonight’s debate blockbuster. I’m searching for the silver lining in the crosstabs, but … help me out. The pollster’s reputable, the sample is enormous and limited to likely voters, and it’s right in the same range of all the other numbers we’ve been seeing lately — except a bit worse. (This is the first poll, I think, to put the margin at +20.) It was also taken over the last few days, which means the effect of her “I’m not a witch” ad is probably priced in. And it’s consistent with another trend we’ve seen in the Delaware polling, namely, that it’s women voters, not men, who are responsible for the bulk of Coons’s lead. Among men, O’Donnell trails here 49/41; among women, it’s 58/25. There’s a number worth crunching for Nate Silver or Mark Blumenthal or some other statistician with time on his hands today. Is there any wider gender gap in any race this year than the Delaware Senate battle?
The silver linings, I guess, are (a) she’s still sitting on a pile of money with which to fund ads, and of course (b) turnout. Two years ago, Biden crushed O’Donnell thanks to a partisan breakdown of 48D/31R/21I. Hopenchange fee-vah was high, so Democrats were motivated. Survey USA’s sample predicts turnout this year at 44D/30R/22I, which surely ain’t happening. There’s bound to be more Republicans in the pool this time with tea partiers enthusiastic and no Obama at the top of the ticket. The thing is, there’d have to be many, many, many more to dent a 15-20 point lead, especially since O’Donnell wins the GOP vote only by a relatively narrow 64/19 margin (Coons, by comparison, takes Democrats 81/10). So there’s your “what to expect” checklist for tonight’s debate — lots of talking points aimed at winning women and the centrist Republicans in Castle’s base. Castle himself could help in that regard, of course, but … he’s not going to. Quote:
Nine-term Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, who lost his state’s Senate GOP primary, said Wednesday that he won’t endorse a candidate in the general election…
“No, I’m not going to endorse anybody in that particular race, not because of the competence of any of the candidates, but because the primary I went through was very nasty in a variety of ways, both politically and personally, and I’ve just declined to get involved in that,” Castle told CNN’s John King in an interview to air Wednesday evening.
Translation: “I’m a sore loser.” At the very least, we’ve gotten some tasty Taiwanese animation out of this race. It’s mostly a goof on O’Donnell, but enjoy the salute to Harry Reid’s “pet” near the end. Open thread fo
Sorry, post got cut.
Final sentence says :
“Open thread for the debate coming at around 7 p.m”
If this is true, Delaware should be nuked !
Lot’s of undecideds in that mix. Turnout will be key. O’Donnell needs to get as much ad money on the board as possible and she needs to have a great debate tonight. A good cold rain on election day wouldn’t hurt either.
I fear the rats at the end of the day will return home to their lair. It will all depend on which side will turn out in greater numbers. Expect Obama to scare minorities and their base with losing their “benefits” if they don’t..
The idiots have bewitched her pretty hard and apparently even the idiot running against McMahon in CT is ahead in polls even though she smackdowns him in intelligence.
Sadly, all the media will talk about on November 3rd is how Coons saved the day for the democrats and how Obama scored a victory there because he went and campaigned for him.
O’Donnell can still win if the Dem turnout is low and it is a high turnout for Repubs. She still has to cut that Coons lead in these polls about by half on election day.
This election season is very fluid making it very possible for O’Donnell to come from behind.
Sure that makes sense. /s
You never know it’s a shame but you can’t win every election with a tea party candidate.
Coons will be a nightmare for 6 years so we can only hope for a last minute surge.
If these “polls” are indeed true then Ceaser Rodney wasted his time riding to Philly to vote on Independence. “First” state indeed! Deleware PROVE that you are worthy of “First State”!
I saw the name “Coons” and it took me by surprise. Interesting last name.
Chris Coons just sent Sarah Palin and Sean Hannity a thank you letter!
She may have won in a different state, like South Dakota, but, in Delaware, the gods are not smiling down on her.
Well, there is a decent chance that Senate turns out to be 50-50 with Coons (and Biden) giving the decisive vote for Senate Majority leader Schumer for the next 2 years. This is the lasting legacy of Tea Party Express DE operation.
What did people expect from this? She can hardly make it into thirties.
The only question is whether she’ll do better (percentage of the vote wise) than Alvin Greene.
He should have sent it to Karl Rove.
The “witch” ad was stupid, and reinforced doubts about her. The ONLY issue of her campaign should be the Obama economic disaster and Coons’ Communist support of it! Period. Make Coons and Obama the focus. You must spell it out in baby talk for most people. Voters are stupid. Bob
Hey, I live in Delaware, and I voted for O’Donnell, and I like Delaware.
Remind me... how many points was coakley ahead of Brown 3 weeks out??
However, Delaware voters do tend to vote Democrat (the 36 year senate career of the infamous Joe Biden is 'Exhibit A') but to elect a hard-core leftist in this political climate is simply irresponsible. It's a given that Christine O'Donnell has to deliver a knockout performance in her debate tonight and I hope the polls are proven wrong and that Republican/Independent turnout is huge on November 2nd. This Coons character is bad news and deserves to lose this contest.
I don’t know about silver linings. However, you mention the money she has raised. It seems to me that she has not really begun to spend that yet. It is also worth noting that most voters here in DE have no idea who Chris Coons is or what he stands for. I am hoping that they will benefit from a $4 million education in the next two weeks. It will certainly come down to turnout here. Her voters are super motivated. Also there is a large group of pissed off voters who may have never voted in a non- presidential year election who will be voting for her. Turnout for the primary was 3x usual for DE. This fact may be confounding the “likely voter” models used by the pollsters. Do not count her out.
Once again, better the Dem than a RINO who will vote Dem and give the Dems cover. We need to CLEARLY align the parties so there is no question who is effing up the world.
Then WHY is Hussein headed to Delaware to help Coons?? Sorry, but I don’t buy it.
She could take them all and still lose by 12 points. And a large Republican turnout isn't necessarily an indication of O'Donnell support - half the Republicans in the primary voted for her opponent and may well pull the leaver for Coons.
That’s the way I read it too.
Because Coons is the only Democrat out there favored to win AND who doesn't mind being seen with Obama. The administration is trying to appear relevant.
Are Delaware Dems of the type that bad weather will keep them away from the polls?
If so, I'm hoping for rain and thunder on November 2, 2010 to suppress their turnout. The ODonnell supporters are passionate and will cast a vote for her -- rain or shine.
We at least won’t see RINO Castle stabbing the Conservatives from the rear, and we would get to clearly see Coons the Marxist enemy from the front.
Which means only base support. Its where Bush was at the end of his term and may be where Obama is headed. Candidates who only win their base and little or nothing else are going to get slaughtered 2:1 or worse. IF it turns out this way this story will trump almost any other on Election Day in the mainstream press. They'll spin it as a huge "win" for Obama and a national repudiation of the Tea Party and the 'Pubs, even if they win everywhere else (unlikely as that is).
A coons vote is not a bi-partisan vote and that means a lot. Castle is just another Liberal anyways. Principals should count for something and it shouldn’t all be about the numbers and who has an R or a D beside their name
This may be a reputable polling firm, but I find it hard to believe O’Donnell still only gets 33% in this latest poll. Basically it is the same ‘hard core’ Republicans and/or conservatives that voted for her in the 2008 race (against Biden).
The Tea Party surge and Republican enthusiam did NOTHING to help out O’Donnell at all? That is not the impression I see on the ground here (even in New Castle county) in DE.
Yeahhhh, it’s too bad we won’t have Castle there to break the tie! He always stood with the repubs. /LOL
Happy Christinabots. In all honesty maybe it was good at least to get rid of Castle. He is a Jerk for not endorsing. With tha said her marketing is terrible and unless she changes it is too late. Unfortunately, she is not that bright of a person. I am not talking about academically bright, I mean street smart bright. She is not.
I most heartily concur.
I've thought for some time that the most likely outcome of the Senate races would be a 50-50 tie. Castle was more than ready to reprise the whole Jumpin' Jim Jeffords episode. No more!
He’s headed to Delaware because of the reason that Coons was chosen for this race. He was chosen to be a loser. He was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb to make way for Senator Mike Castle. He’s a 3rd rate back-bencher who is only winning because he’s not his opponent.
Couple that with the considerable amount that she has raised and the nightmare that the National party has on its hands defending itself this year and you can see why Obama and Biden would be doing everything they can to make sure the lead holds.
So, their coming to DE doesn’t mean the polls are wrong. It means that the Dems are aware that Christine does have a chance to pull an upset. It is a remote chance, but they want to squash it nonetheless.
Coons hasn’t really polled below +11 since August 5th in 13 separate polls.
If you take the last 5 polls then Coons hasn’t dropped below +16 (and it’s going up for him).
This “new” poll only continues the trend.
You may like O’Donnell (as I do), but those aren’t good numbers for anyone, anytime, any year.
That being said: S. Brown didn’t get a lead on Coakley until 9 days out. 9 days out, Buddies. And even then it only got to around +5 or so. Never lose hope.
Unfortunately, you are entirely correct in your analysis. As is the poster above who said we can thank Pudge Rove for this. And the poster who said her ghastly “Aren’t-I-Oh-So-Cute” ads hurt more than they helped.
Believe it or not, however, it can still be pulled out — if she fires her current media advisers and bareknuckles it from now until election day. I hate for candidates to personally go negative, but COD has left herself no choice — starting with tonight’s debate.
My advice: Forget the little girl smile, Christine, and come out as a serious, mature woman who has had just about enough of the sexism and catcalls. Think back to how your mom looked when she was lowering the boom on you, and do the same to Coons. Pudge, and the far left smear machine.
Please, please, PLEASE, Christine, you need your Ronald Reagan, “I paid for this microphone” moment.
Did they vote in the Delaware primary?
How far behind was she in the primary??
ODonnell got 35.3% of the vote against Biden in 2008 when Obama took the state with 67.8%. Win or lose, she is a winner because she took out a RINO in the primary.
Going further down that road, the Dems will try and spin Coons trouncing O’Donnell as a major repudiation of TEA party supported candidates.
Won’t work, but that’s what the Dems are hoping for.
And no, I don’t want Castle anywhere near the Senate as a Republican. Castle supports Cap and Trade. Enough said.
Welcome to freerepublic, and no, the thank you note goes to Karl Rove for jumping on her 53% to 47% victory night, and dumping ice water on her momentum, and continuing it for days, the NRSC, and then Mike Castle for announcing early, and then again TODAY, again with perfect timing to deflate O'Donnell, that he would not endorse the Republican candidate because he was treated too meanly in the primary, clearly signaling to his support to not support her.
Conservatives won the GOP primary in a one on one contest, and the Republican establishment went to war against the Republican winner.
Not sure if this anecdote applies, but I was picking out apples at Maryland grocery store and overheard a middle aged woman emphatically stating to another; I am a Democrat, but I will be voting a straight Republican ticket this time!!!!
Wonder if this voter’s intent is appearing in poll data?
I believe they are, and I'm hoping that indifference will keep many of them at home.
In the end, that was a victory by the Demon-rats LONG FORGOTTEN because they got their communist asses kicked six ways to Sunday in the rest of the nation.
I still hope COD wins--I sent her some money, and she is right on the issues.
Even if she loses, she is still right on the issues. And RINOs are still on the run.
All worth it.
Voters in Delaware are entitled to make their choice and live with it. O'Donnell is giving them a real opportunity to make our nation stronger.
Because if the numbers are true, the talking points will be "President Obama pulls one out for his party!".
Seems everywhere else he goes, his party drops in the polls.
Just think of it this way: Christine O’Donnell took out a nine time incumbent Congressman, the longest-serving U.S. Representative in the state’s history, a fomer Lt. Gov, and a two-time former governor in the primary.