Posted on 07/20/2004 3:41:49 PM PDT by veronica
The four-point lead that John Kerry opened up in the polls after adding John Edwards to the Democratic ticket has already been halved as the Edwards bounce wears off and voters move back to the undecided column.
The latest IBD/TIPP poll — taken July 12-17 — shows Kerry leading President Bush 42%-40% in a three-way race, with independent Ralph Nader getting 4% and 15% undecided.
In a head-to-head race, Kerry leads Bush 44%-41%.
An IBD/TIPP poll taken July 6-10 had Kerry up 47%-43%, with Nader at 4% and undecideds at only 6%. Kerry's head-to-head lead was five points (49%-44%).
"The Edwards bounce is certainly on the wane," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner.
But the heightened level of uncertainty has come at the expense of both major candidates, Mayur added, noting that general support dropped three points for Bush and five for Kerry.
Independent And Unsure
Most of the newly minted — or re-minted — undecided voters are found among independents (26%), Midwesterners (20%) and residents of battleground states (19%).
Other groups with large segments of undecided voters include those ages 65 and older (19%), Hispanics and single women (18%) and suburbanites (17%).
"With just over 100 days to the day of the election, the stump speeches, the ads and the media blitzes have all served to blur the line between the two candidates, leaving many people scratching their heads as to who is the right man for the job," said Mayur.
Since March, IBD/TIPP has tracked Americans' feelings toward both candidates. Two weeks ago, the share of undecided voters was just 6%, fueled in part by the Edwards announcement.
Edwards — who comes across to some as more trustworthy and in touch with the common man — helped Kerry overcome some of the fuzziness inherent in his support base and drew in some independent voters.
"The first stop before retraction is to sit on the fence. A large share of undecideds goes hand in hand with the present waning Edwards bounce," said Mayur. "However, next week's Democratic convention will also help stem the retraction and push the fence-sitters toward Kerry.
"Further, the more important the outcome of an election is perceived to be, the more difficult it is for people to make quick decisions. That's why we are seeing such a high proportion of undecided voters."
Bush's Male Base Crumbles
The share of undecided voters hasn't been this high since mid-April, when the Abu Ghraib scandal was grabbing the headlines, violence in Iraq was intensifying, gas prices were skyrocketing and consumer sentiment was tanking. In an April 16-22 poll, 14% weren't sure whom they'd vote for.
The president is seeing significant erosion in his support among men.
In the 2000 election, Bush beat Al Gore 53% to 42% among men. And in four IBD/TIPP polls conducted since June, Bush's lead among men averaged nine points. But in the latest poll, the lead was slashed to one point (42%-41%).
Also, for the first time in this election season, Kerry draws more support among Democrats than Bush does among Republicans. Eighty-four percent of Democrats plan to vote for Kerry vs. 83% of Republicans for Bush.
"This is an important indicator because every candidate who went on to become president since the late 1980s has received more support from his party than the opponent received from his party," said Mayur.
Voters still list the economy as their No. 1 issue. But it's receding in importance as other domestic issues — health care in particular — come on. Health care now ranks third, behind the war in Iraq and ahead of national security.
WHAT DO WE WANT?! SOMETHING!
WHEN DO WE WANT IT?! WHENEVER!
IS IT TIME FOR A CHANGE?! PROBABLY!
IS SECURITY AND ISSUE FOR YOU?! SORT OF!
IS IT THE ECONOMY, STUPID?! I THINK SO!
IS AMERICAN IDOL RIGGED?! YES!!!!!
back to square one. A breadown I would like to see is the Conservative, Moderate and Liberal breakdown of voters and how they will vote.
Based on the polls I have seen, my gut tells me Bush has had a fairly big loss in support from blue collar white males, but is doing somwhat better among suburban women and hispanics.
Oh, no. This means that Kerry and Edwards could go heavier on the latent homo stump.
The latest Pew Research poll says 97 percent of conservatives are supporting Bush.
Can you give me a link please
And I'd imagine the other 3% are voting for Badnarik or Peroutka - not Kerry depsite what that moron at conservativesforkerry.com says.
I found a PEW poll link here.
http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=217
Although this poll is a month old, it has the Conservative support for Bush at just 71%. Could the 97% be Republican Conservative support?
Union members will slowly move toward Bush, and by election day the majority of union members will vote for Bush.
Why? Because they'll realize that the poodle and ambulance chaser support trial lawyers who shut down businesses, including those with union shops.
My prediction - Bush wins big in union states on election day.
If this is all true, then Bush's support among women must have significantly *increased*, since otherwise Kerry would have a much bigger lead. Funny how that didn't get mentioned.
Undecideds are a strange breed. They seem to take an idd pride in saying they 'haven't made up their minds.' More accurately, it means "I have not been paying attention."
Note the related and curious case of proud 'Independent' voters, who curiously fade left on 9 of 10 issues, consistently.
But, but, but...Mr. Burns and Smithers have pretty hair!
In the end, men are going to vote strongly in favor of the President. If he can hold his own with women, as he appears to be doing, he will win.
Unfortunately I think they'll mostly break for Kerry. Kerry's entire message is "I'm not Bush", and since undecided voters don't really want to vote for Bush, they'll vote for the guy who isn't. Kerry's trying to be the "unnamed Democrat" that during the primaries did better in polls against Bush than any named Democrat.
That's not the right poll; it was a poll from last week, posted on this very forum.
And it is conservatives.
Good eye.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.