Posted on 07/31/2004 11:52:27 AM PDT by demlosers
The head to head race numbers are from REGISTERED voters, a smaller subsection of these "adults", I presume. How many, we do not know. If we assume around 800 Registered voters were polled (out of 1010 adults), as is usual, the margin of error increases to plus or minus 3.5%, whereas the "bounce" is only 4 points, and so can be dismissed as questionable since it is so close to the MOE.
THe key is the change from one poll to the next.
I just can't get over the number of idiots who believe Bush has done so much to divide the country. Name one issue, I dare you. What immediately comes to my mind is Edwards' Two Americas crap and Jesse Jackson's poverty pimping.
Maybe Michael Moore is partially right when he states Americans are the stupidest people on the planet.
So even if you believed this poll, the dems got less than a 10 pt bounce out of a propganda-laden convention where they put their best (so-called) foot forward. Not good news for dems. Based on the news, propaganda and media bias, the dems should have a 15 point lead now.
Rasmussen was JUNK in the 2000 election, so it's track record has a bad history.
I suspect that the truth is somewhere in between this Newsweak poll and the Rasmussen poll - that is, Kerry enjoyed a +5 point bounce or so, which will erode a point every day or two and stabilize again.
The bad news is that the same will probably happen to the GOP convention. +5 out of the gate and then stabilize.
I think it will be a close election, with Bush probably winning the popular vote by 2 points or so, and around 325 electoral votes. Good enough for another term, and that's all we should be focused on.
That's roughly five points.
Kerry will get a 6 to 8 point bounce in the next Gallup poll.
A Newsweek/Gallup poll taken after the 84 convention had Mondale leading Reagan by 2 points.
Dems Receive Two-Point Margin Bounce in Two-Way Race, Four-Point Bounce in Three-Way Race
This of course will be the one Chris Matthews and his crew will be yelling about all week. And the rest of the media, unless they get a better one from the L.A. Times!
Not even likely voters? Just adults?
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,010 adults aged 18 and older on July 29-30, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. This poll is part of the August 9 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, August 2).
So then, how many of these 1010 adults are the registered voters they were referring to and what are their political affiliations?
You're kidding me. Hope (and dementia) springs eternal...
Newsweek is the most unreliable of all polls.
Today's Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll has Kerry up 47 to Bush 46.
The previous three days were each Kerry 48 to Bush 45.
So much for the Kerry's convention bounce!
And Rasmussen polls likely voters, not adults.
FWIW: I think the Dems will implode. Here's why:
1. The Republican convention at the end of August will be one key opportunity for Bush & Cheney to really show the people what has been accomplished in the last 4 years. I predict a fairly good bump from this.
2. The Debates:
a) Bush vs. Kerry - Bush should hold no punches here. I see him mopping Kerry on not just the issues, but calling him on his record (both military & senate).
b) Cheney vs. Edwards - Despite the Dems insisting that Edwards is more experienced (they certainly are delusional), Cheney will out-gun Edwards on the experience factor. Edwards may be a good debator due to his trial-lawyer experience, but Cheney will hold no punches and speaks very directly. I believe the people will see Edwards as a legalistic hair-splitter (very Clintonian) and Cheney as a straight-talker. Edwards will be humiliated.
3. Third anniversary of 9/11 - Not to politicize it, but Bush has the record on this since it was on his watch.
These three events leading into October, I believe will give the Republican ticket enough momentum to win in November.
Since Kerry's DNC Speech, I have become much more confident that Bush/Cheney will win. And not just by a hair - by an almost Reaganesque 1984 landlside.
Bah. It's only Newsweak...
If those polls are correct than Mickey Mooreis right when he proclaims americans are stupid. How the heck could you watch that trash this past week and be excited about voting for a complete idiot. Kerry, the next Communist and Thief. Wake up America.
+/- 4 points, demographic on the east and west coast. Not a good poll. Almost, but not quite, as good as a Rassmussen poll (worthless).
Not Bush, but the lame, left-leaning main (i.e. mean) stream media egged on by the Rats.
When you look at the internals on this poll, it is really bad for Kerry. According to one of the head guys at useelection.org, the party breakdown on this poll favors Dems by about 8 points. Those sampled are:
Democrats- 38%
Republicans- 31%
Independents- 31%
GOP support: Kerry gains 1 pt amongst Republicans
Last Poll: Bush 90/Kerry 6
This Poll: Bush 90/Kerry 7
DEM Support: Kerry gains 5 pts amongst Democrats
Last Poll: Bush 10/Kerry 83
This Poll: Bush 8/Kerry 86
Ind Support: Bush gains 13 pts amongst Independents
Last Poll: Bush 34/Kerry 53
This Poll: Bush 39/Kerry 45
For those of you who study polls, like I do, this site is excellent. I highly reccomend bookmarking it and going there everytime a new poll comes out. The posters there are for the most part non-partisian and they examine the internals of each poll and are able to tell pretty quickly how biased it is.
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