Posted on 08/13/2004 8:18:53 AM PDT by The G Man
The "Kerry Spot" at NRO linked to this interesting item at Politpundit:
March 2004
Total primary votes cast by Registered California Democrats = 2,897,110
Total votes cast for John Kerry = 1,886,019
Total votes cast for John Edwards = 613,441
Total primary votes cast by Registered California Republicans = 2,216,351
Total votes cast for George W. Bush = 2,216,047
March 2000
Total primary votes cast by Registered California Democrats = 3,270,614
Total votes cast for Al Gore = 2,609,950
Total primary votes cast by Registered California Republicans = 4,146,206
Total votes cast for George W. Bush = 2,168,466
The Democratic primary was in a similar state during both cycles — by California, Gore had pretty much wiped the floor with Bill Bradley, meaning 3.2 million California Democrats cast votes for a primary race that was pretty much over. This year, one could argue there was still a slim hope among some Democrats that Edwards was going to unify all the anti-Kerry Democratic voters and take the lead. The point of this is not to suggest Bush will win California, just to observe that Democratic turnout for their primary was down from 2000, which is not what one might expect when the message is that the whole party is energized and angry about Bush. Sure, the GOP primary turnout was down, but Bush had no opposition this year.
More evidence of democrats becoming "9/11 Republicans"??
Prior to '92 the California electorate voted for the GOP candidate for President six times in a row, so the potential is still there (although the demographics are less favorable).
I promised to keep you informed if California gets close in the polls. Here is one.
>Prior to '92 the California electorate voted for the GOP >candidate for President six times in a row, so the >potential is still there (although the demographics are >less favorable).
Close but not quite. :) CA went Republican 1952-60, then for Johnson in 1964, but back to the GOP presidential candidate in every election from 1968-88. Sadly once Clinton took power he seemed to shift CA and many other states over to a Demo trend, at least at the presidential level.
Remarkable, btw, that Jerry Ford carried CA, MI, IL, and NJ and still could not beat Carter! If GWB could win those states today it would be a landslide.
Turnout in other states this year also seems to indicate Mr Bush might do a little better than polls show. In NJ for example he got more votes in the GOP primary than Kerry got from Dems. Turnout in other Demo primaries was remarkably LOW.
Actually, I was exactly right. I said six times in a row prior to '92, and '68, '72, '76, '80, '84, and '88 is precisely six times.
Sorry! My math is not good. Maybe I had better turn Democrat. ;-)
In any case I do not have high hopes for CA, but am still confident GWB will turn it around in FL, win OH, and hold on to NV and WV. We've got to hope he pads his margin by winning WI, IA, and NM.
Notice that more voters voted for George W. Bush, running unopposed, than voted for John Kerry in the CA primary. I thought at the time that was strange and spoke volumes about the challenge Kerry will have in energizing support in CA. He is the antithesis of the California personality. Californians loved Bill Clinton, but Kerry is a charm-free New England patrician and John Edwards talks funny. The Democratic party is in considerably worse shape than it was in 2000 as well after the Gray Davis debacle. I daresay that an awful lot of Californians don't trust the Democrat party to govern anymore, not in California or nationally. The state is ripe for the pickin' for the GOP this year.
It's encouraging. It looks good. But Bush would still lose if all the Dems voted and all the Republicans voted. He HAS to get "crossover" and "independent" voters to even have a shot at CA. I think CA will be closer than in 2000, but still out of play.
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