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He wonders if Chuck Schumer has run his entire Senate strategy based on his resentments, instead of what the voters really want to hear. Obi notes Schumer has run a ton of ads tying Michael Steele to President Bush and the Iraq war – images, the media assures us, are toxic in this election atmosphere. And yet Steele’s still in this race, with all the momentum. In fact, Bob Ehrlich is even closer in the governor’s race, and Democrats were tying him to Bush all year long, never mind that Ehrlich is a governor and doesn’t interact with Bush terribly...

Blogger's remorse Posted: December 31, 2004 1:00 a.m. Eastern By Kevin McCullough © 2004 WorldNetDaily.com The combination of the greatest tragedy to hit mankind since Noah, and the emergence of the blogosphere is shining a pretty unflattering light on some from the left when it comes to just how "compassionate" they really are. This last week on my blog, I did a bit of an expose on three center-left blogs and their response to the tragedy of the earthquake-tsunami. The three I picked were the "shining stars" of the center-left blogosphere. Talking Points Memo by Josh Marshall, Wonkette, and the Daily...

Instapundit reports that in a post-Election Day appearance, Maureen Dowd "looks absolutely terrible. It's like she's aged ten years since I last saw her. Her manner is subdued, and bitter, too. I guess that explains her post-election writing. It's striking to see a pundit taking the election so hard — most actual Democratic politicians seem to be maintaining more personal distance." Well, really, who had more on the line in this campaign? A professional politician has ups and downs in his or her career; you win some races, and you lose some. But the press bet the house against...

MORE COMING, BUT HERE'S SOME ANALYSIS [11/01 04:58 PM] I'm working on an hour-by-hour "what to expect on Election Night" feature for tomorrow, listing each state by the closing times. While I'm finishing this, read Jay Cost: 1. Continue not-sweating the Fox poll. They are working off a 100% weekend sample... 6. Update on polls. Gerry Daly has convinced me to excise both the St. Cloud State University poll and the Star-Tribune poll from my analysis of Minnesota. Here are the updated results. I have also excised the Columbus Dispatch poll, as it was done by mail. Finally, I added...

Just heard from a well-connected Washington Republican studying the polls intensely. He said he wasn’t surprised by the reports that polls conducted Friday night had Kerry surging. Weekends are always bad for us. It's common to see Kerry do well on Friday and Saturday nights. The weekends look good for kerry and then turn back to about +3 for us when weekend is washed out. I think you'll see the same thing in tomorrow's tracking polls. My guess: Are GOP voters not answering phones because they're out at high school football games?

The gist from RealClearPolitics today: Bush gains a point in the Washington Post tracking poll, but still trails by one point; Rasmussen's robots have Bush up 2, Zogby (urgh) has Bush up 1; TIPP has Bush up 4; ICR has Bush up 3. Detroit News has Kerry up 1 in Michigan, and two polls show Bush up in Missouri, but maybe a little closer than Team Bush would prefer. I am also informed that Susan Estrich recently said on Fox News that this evening CBS will release a poll showing Kerry up 6 in Florida. She reportedly added that the...

CHATTING WITH A LONGTIME GOP OPERATIVE I wish Bush supporters who feel pessimistic or jittery could listen to the phone conversation I just had with a longtime GOP operative. This gentleman, who has been in politics longer than I have been alive, states: * If the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll gets any more separation in the coming days, and there’s one or two good state polls for Bush, this race is over.

Here in the LA Times report above:The network's new reporting will be wrapped up soon, perhaps this weekend or early next week, Howard said. More sources have come forward in recent days, and CBS is leaning on its original sources to see if they will go on the record, he added. In the Washington Post:In a related development, White House press secretary Scott McClellan hinted that more documents regarding Bush's National Guard service may soon be released. Asked whether officials in the White House have seen unreleased documents, McClellan called that "a very real possibility." Other officials with knowledge of...

UPDATE: Poll-watcher supreme Jerry Dales e-mails in with a slightly different take: I would like to respond to your two sentences, "The race is tightening. Kerry's not in such bad shape." Is the race tightening? You use as evidence the fact that the last several nationwide polls have shown the race being relatively close. But that is only part of the story. Tightening is a description of movement, and merely looking at the current location does not tell us anything about the movement. We have to look at the previous result as well to get that. So let's take a...

The "Kerry Spot" at NRO linked to this interesting item at Politpundit:March 2004 Total primary votes cast by Registered California Democrats = 2,897,110Total votes cast for John Kerry = 1,886,019 Total votes cast for John Edwards = 613,441 Total primary votes cast by Registered California Republicans = 2,216,351Total votes cast for George W. Bush = 2,216,047 March 2000 Total primary votes cast by Registered California Democrats = 3,270,614Total votes cast for Al Gore = 2,609,950 Total primary votes cast by Registered California Republicans = 4,146,206Total votes cast for George W. Bush = 2,168,466 The Democratic primary was in a similar...