BUSH
KERRY
Posted on 08/25/2004 10:27:40 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis
Careful, it may not be a true increase at all! If they (the Democrooks in the media) raise the bar enough before the convention, it might look like Bush had as little bounce as Kerry did after his fiasco..
And I remember reading how he tried to order the Brits to fire on Russia, but they refused to start WWIII just because he wanted them to. That led to his early retirement.
Great news!
Let's hope this is a breakthrough and Bush will keep going up and Kerry down from here on out.
We'd be disarmed and still under marshal law.
>>Kerry's wife will then divorce him and hook up with Howard Dean.
I'll see that one and raise you...
...Terrayyza dumps Stiff-vet, marries Shrillary, and they BOTH come back at us in ought-eight!
Anyone who doesn't believe the Swift Boat Vets are ripping moi Kerry a new one, has a damaged CNS system.
What is the depth and volume in this market? A single large kerry seller hitting bids could account for this.
"I would quickly guess that these are two markests that are traded separately, so there's nothing to prevent both from trading over .5 (especially over a very short period - the prices couldn't stay that high, because any buyer would see they were overpriced and wait for them to come down)."
If there is any depth in the market, arbs would keep fair value of the 2 contracts at max .99-1.01...assuming you can short them.
"What is the depth and volume in this market? A single large kerry seller hitting bids could account for this."
-- That's not possible. There are two SEPARATE contracts here, one for Bush and one for Kerry. Each moved in almost exactly opposite directions.
Yep. And the markets are VERY reliable indicators of real world trends. The polls usually lag behind them a couple of weeks.
BUSH
KERRY
"
-- That's not possible. There are two SEPARATE contracts here, one for Bush and one for Kerry. Each moved in almost exactly opposite directions."
In a liquid active market (I don't know if this qualifies),having two related instruments with a combined expiration value of 1 means as a seller is hitting one contract, the total contract value will drop below 1.00 and both contracts should receive buy interest as a result, but particularly the one not being hit. Arbs may try to wait until the kerry contract quits downticking before buying that side of the trade.
This may be academic. As I said, I don't know open interest, volume, market depth and transaction costs for these contracts, and it may be that what I am saying is much less relevant here.
"YYYEEEAAAAAAUUUUGGGHHHH!!!!"
Another thing to note is that if the combined value falls much below $1, some people who might not otherwise trade may buy shares of both in equal quantities, since such a move would be 99.999% certain to win. For example, if Kerry were at $0.45 and Bush were at $0.50, I could buy 100 shares of each for a total of $95, and collect $100 after the election whether Bush or Kerry won.
Yes, but there are some overlaps that quickly close, as you can see inthe chart. Call it a "lag".
Thanks for pointing that out. I hadn't seen it when I wrote my thoughts. I am glad to know I am not alone with those thoughts. ;)
This should tell you how that poll was weighted, considering Dems shouldn't be weighted more than 3-4 % over 'Pubs:
Independents split evenly, so the cancel each other out.
3% of Republicans voting for Kerry
15% of Dems voting for Bush ---\\\----Yet Bush is only up by 3.
Somebody with some math skills can give you an idea, but they definitely overweighed Dems. Again. I'd add a comfortable 4% to Bush's total.
Plus, it was only registered voters, so add 2-3 % on top of that...
$h!t! That's 58-37 Bush. That's fricken landslide territory....
Unless he dies, the first ballot mandatory votes go to Kerry.
LOL!!!
Was McPeak in the boat?
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