Posted on 08/31/2004 2:20:31 AM PDT by charat8392
Liza Willis (update 1) Aug. 31 st , 2004 5:09AM EST Washington Dilby Affiliate -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
With the 2004 Presidential Election around the corner things are not looking so absolute for the Democratic ticket, John Kerry and John Edwards. Dilby.com complies data from various known and unknown polls across the country (including Hawaii and Alaska ), in addition to gathering Internet data from various web-pollers. Dilby.com also factors the previous electoral votes and the 2000 Presidential election to give the public an accurate percentage of who's ahead in the current race. The statistical data gathered averages the popular vote in addition to the electoral votes needed to elect a president.
Over the past week Bush has been ahead by an average of 2.4 points given credit to the battleground states. Dilby has many critics but our data closely follows polls favoring Bush in addition to polls favoring Kerry, but Dilby averages the polls to give the American public a more accurate number. Currently, as of Aug. 31 st , 2004 3:49EST Bush leads 50.0642% to Kerry's 49.9358% with a 4.0% margin of error. Many ask why are Dilby's stats rounded out four decimal places and the answer is that many polls do not give you the full decimal, they often round. Dilby is providing Americans with the most accurate Presidential analysis information available.
As the race progresses, Dilby predicts that Kerry will make a strong comeback in California and other key states that may tip the race. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Liza Willis Article #0029382 – Copyright by Dilby.com Media, questions, comments for Liza Willis at jobs@dilby.com Permission is given to news publications, individuals for reproduction, please reference Dilby when doing so.
Welcome to FR.
Dilby sounds somewhat like a doorknob. No one has put CA into Bush's column to this point, so a rally there can not help Jean Fraude.
I would have to disagree. California will be in play for most of the rest of the campaign season, virutally a see-saw battle, and it will come through for Bush on Election Night.
Why would "dilby" bother to predict "a strong comeback in California" when that state is irrelevant and known to be a John Faux Kerry lock?
And about the "other key states that may tip the race": on what basis other than your leftward liberal pining hope would you predict that? There is no objective rationale for that prediction, especially when the GOP Convention bounce has not even occurred!
Dilby is a fool.
From Liza,
As for as the stats go, yes I do see a comback from Kerry. The main poll represents data collected every 8-12hrs. While the major of the article is statistically backed up...I do have my predictions and maybe people might be getting that confused with what the site stands for or not.
If it's September almost and Kerry has to be coming back in Cali then he is a dead man already and just looking around trying to find a place to die
maybe, maybe not... The comeback I'm talking about is by several points, no more than 5 if you look at the site
Dont miss it !!!
WI, MI, and PA would be definite gains for Bush if his poll numbers hold.
Once Kerry starts spending ad money needlessly in CA, it's over.
What on earth are you talking about?
If you were to post some evidence that Kerry had fallen in CA to the extent that a comeback was/is necessary.
But there is no such evidence and CA is absolutely no newsworthy unless several polls were to show Bush having any sort of hope in CA. And to date there is no such polling data.
If the polls move toward Bush in CA as a result of this convention, then you may have reason to discuss CA as a comeback state for Kerry - but then you would have to have some objective reason for making such a prediction.
But so far dilby is simply an amateur feeding numbers into an excel spreadsheet and making grand pronouncements afterwards.
ah...good one
Way to bring down the party.
Who the hell ever heard of the "Dildo" poll anyway!!
FINAL RESULT:
BUSH 55%
KERRY 45%
END OF KERRY. END OF STORY!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.