Posted on 08/31/2004 11:15:43 AM PDT by varina davis
Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 27a Statement as of 2:00 PM AST on August 31, 2004
...Powerfull Hurricane Frances...with 140 mph winds...moving westward a little faster...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas ...Which includes Acklins...crooked...Inaguas...Mayaguana and Ragged Islands...and for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the central Bahamas which includes Cat...Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Puerto Rico... Culebra...Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Thomas...St. John and surrounding islands...and for the British Virgin Islands.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Gorda westward to Manzanillo Bay and has discontinued the tropical storm watch south of Punta Gorda. At 2 PM AST...1800z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located by an Air Force hurricane hunter plane near latitude 20.3 north... longitude 65.0 west or about 140 miles...230 km...north-northeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.
Frances is moving toward the west near 16 mph ...26 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the west-northwest. On this track...the core of the hurricane will be passing pass well to the north of the U.S and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. San Juan Puerto Rico radar shows rainbans approaching Puerto Rico.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph...225 km/hr...with higher gusts. This a category four hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km.
A reconnaissance plane just measured a minimum central pressure of 942 mb...27.82 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are likely over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in association with Frances today.
Large and dangerous waves are possible along north coast of the islands in the warning area.
Repeating the 2 PM AST position...20.3 N... 65.0 W. Movement toward...west near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 942 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Avila
Please post maps, photos and projected paths.
Are you from Jupiter?
Hmm. They moved that track 200 miles north from this morning...another example of how those 4-5 day forecasts can vary widely.
Now if that thing will just take a VERY hard right and head out to sea before landfall, we'll all be happy...
}:-)4
The historical would say there's a good chance it will, but.. Be Prepared!
bump
And if it keeps drifting north...hoo boy. Sitting here in central SC, I've just got a real bad feeling about this thing. I think our craft show in Charlotte is gonna get rained out on Monday...
}:-)4
Thanks for the data. Threatening storm . Got to get everyone ready.
Don't see that happening this time, too much of a ridge to the north of Frances. She is not likely to make much of a curve.
yep....there is 0 chance of frances missing the US mainland.
luckily....conditions wont be as favorable (at least it doesnt appear that way) after 48 hours to keep the storm as strong as it is now......
"Please post maps, photos and projected paths."
LOL..damn.
;^)
The most northerly path projection seems most likely. South Carolina should be landfall.
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