Strategic Vision: PA - B 47, K 46 (lead!), IA - B47, K47, N2, MI - K45, B42, N3, MN - K47, B46, N1

Strategic Vision ^ | 08/30/2004 | Strategic Vision

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Pennsylvania

Below are the results of a three-day poll of likely voters in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania for the presidential race. Results are based on telephone interviews with 801 likely voters in Pennsylvania, aged 18+, and released as indicated below. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

1. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney or Kerry—Edwards?

	07/22	08/06	08/20	08/31	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Bush-Cheney	43%	43%	44%	47%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kerry-Edwards	48%	51%	49%	46%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Undecided	9%	6%	7%	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%

2. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney, Kerry—Edwards, or Nader—Camejo?

	07/22	08/06	08/20	08/31	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Bush-Cheney	43%	43%	44%	47%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kerry-Edwards	47%	48%	48%	45%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Nader-Camejo	1%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Undecided	9%	7%	6%	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Iowa

1. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney or Kerry—Edwards?

	07/23	08/05	08/19	08/31	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Bush-Cheney	46%	46%	47%	47%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kerry-Edwards	48%	49%	49%	48%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Undecided	6%	5%	4%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%

2. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney, Kerry—Edwards, or Nader—Camejo?

	07/23	08/05	08/19	08/31	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Bush-Cheney	46%	46%	47%	47%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kerry-Edwards	47%	48%	48%	47%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Nader-Camejo	1%	2%	2%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Undecided	6%	4%	3%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Michigan

1. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney or Kerry—Edwards?

	07/19	08/04	08/18	08/31	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Bush-Cheney	45%	42%	42%	42%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kerry-Edwards	47%	49%	48%	47%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Undecided	8%	9%	10%	11%	0%	0%	0%	0%

2. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney, Kerry—Edwards, or Nader—Camejo?

	07/19	08/04	08/18	08/31	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Bush-Cheney	44%	42%	42%	42%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kerry-Edwards	46%	47%	46%	45%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Nader-Camejo	1%	2%	2%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Undecided	9%	9%	10%	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Minnesota

1. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney or Kerry—Edwards?

	07/26	08/05	08/19	08/31	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Bush-Cheney	47%	45%	44%	46%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kerry-Edwards	48%	49%	49%	49%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Undecided	5%	6%	70%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%

2. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney, Kerry—Edwards, or Nader—Camejo?

	07/26	08/05	08/19	08/31	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
Bush-Cheney	47%	45%	44%	46%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Kerry-Edwards	47%	47%	47%	47%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Nader-Camejo	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Undecided	4%	5%	7%	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Strategic Vision went ahead with tomorrow's release because they are updating their website tonight.

The swifties are KILLING Kerry. Bush leads in PA sans Nader (he's not on the ballot), is tied in Iowa and Michigan and Minnesota are in play.

[commish]

drip drip drip drip

[AuH2ORepublican]

Bush cut Kerry's lead by 1% (compared to the prior Strategic Vision poll) in each of MI and IA and by 2% in MN, and his 6% improvement in PA puts him in the lead. And these polls were conducted before the Republican National Convention even started---Bush will likely be ahead in all four of these states after the convention, with his lead in PA being over 5%.

Bush has The Big Mo . . . .

[Kahuna]

Paging "Courage"

[PilloryHillary]

These numbers look GREAT!!! However, isn't this polling done by a GOP outfit? What were their poll numbers back in 2000? This is just too good to be true.

[Barlowmaker]

Minnesota legitimately IS a state where Nader support is a factor.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

This is good. Don't let the Republican Pollster designation of this firm fool you, their polls are solid. I have yet to see an outlier from this firm.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Bush leads in PA sans Nader (he's not on the ballot)"

---

Don't be so sure that Nader won't be on the ballot in PA. The judicial panel's decision to exclude Nader is based on the pretense that Nader and Camejo are registered members of political parties in other states, so they can't run as independents---I think it is clear that the law that prohibits Pennsylvanians who are registered with a political party from running as independents should not apply to presidential candidates from other states. I think there's a good chance that the decision will be overturned on appeal. See http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04244/370555.stm

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

You bring good news! Thanks

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

I should have said as of right now he isn't on the ballot. The PA Supreme Court could reverse the bad appellate court decision.

Here's an interesting tidbit from the 8 states SV released today.. the Swift vet effect:

GA - 65% saw or were familiar with ads. 54% believed ads were credible or could be true. 35% didn't (gap +21).
PA - 67% saw or were familiar with ads. 48% believed ads were credible or could be true. 36% didn't (gap +12).
WI - 71% saw or were familiar with ads. 49% believed ads were credible or could be true. 39% didn't. (gap +10).
FL - 63% saw or were familiar with ads. 51% believed ads were credible or could be true. 44% didn't (gap +7).
OH - 63% saw or were familiar with ads. 43% believed ads were credible or could be true. 37% didn't (gap +6).
IA - 71% saw or were familiar with ads. 44% believed that the ads were credible or could be true. 42% didn't (gap +2)
MN - 62% saw or were familiar with ads. 45% believed ads were credible or could be true. 46% didn't (gap -1).
MI - 60% saw or were familiar with ads. 42% believed ads were credible or could be true. 45% didn't (gap -3).

Bush obviously has a commanding lead in GA. But look at the two Kerry battleground states that Bush took in this cycle: PA and WI. They both tend to believe the swifties (+12 in PA, +10 in WI).

[RockinRight]

I predict almost all of the "undecideds" we see in the polls will vote for Bush when its all said and done.

Swift Boat Ads, Kerry's non-existant personality, and Bush wiping the floor with Kerry during the debates will be contributing factors.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

I believe SV is an Atlanta based polling firm. They have done their polling for Republicans in the past but are looking to get name recognition in this cycle as a legit polling outlet.

They've been around GA for a while and pegged the GA Senate primary pretty accurately.

[shrinkermd]

If these polls are accurate for Minnesota, then the President will win easily. Uniformly, contrasted to other states, pollsters underestimate the Republican vote by 8% early and 4% late. There is no satisfactory explanation for this.

[COURAGE]

Getting better, right now Kerry 262EV and Bush 233EV. The race is a toss up, but leaning Kerry.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Didn't you have Bush winning a few days ago? What changed?

[Barlowmaker]

Can you link me to any archival 2000 FR pre-election threads where your prognosticating ability is on display? I tried to Google it, and can find nothing.

I think you are a troll operative full of crap, but I don't want to be hasty. You must have some bona fides around here from the 2000 election we can all check, right?

[Barlowmaker]

Didn't you have Bush winning a few days ago? What changed?

What changed? There was a thread gaining positive, optimistic momentum that needed to be undermined and disempowered.

[COURAGE]

A lot of states, (OH, FL, & PN) were tied, new polls are out. Right now, Bush 280EV and Kerry 249EV. A lot of states are in flux, which is good news for Bush, because he was behind.

[COURAGE]

Yes, but not for you.