Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-02 : Thursday Thread

Free Republic Community:

Welcome to Friday's Hurricane Frances news-thread !

It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North-West to clobber Kissimmee and Gainsville ...

Well ... I made the round-trip Wednesday evening from Tampa--Palm Bay--Tampa to get the kids safely stowed away at a Days Inn in Clearwater.

There was only light traffic on the Hwy-192 route between Melbourne and Kissimmee.

Just a little heavier for the I-4 traffic for the next 80 miles to Tampa Clearwater.

BTW. I was told by a Melbourne-Palm Bay Firefighter that shelters were few and far between, and some of dubious safety.

Also discovered a "very neat" item called PLYTOX (???) used to secure external Plywood sheets to Stucco windows.

EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:

HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.

General George S. Patton Jr. Website

.

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 34...Corrected

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 02, 2004

...Correct spelling of dangerous in headline...

...Dangerous category four Frances continues west-northwestward
through the Bahamas...Florida Hurricane Watch extended southward...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Bahamas and
for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the Hurricane Watch is extended southward
along the Florida East Coast to Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for the Florida East Coast from Craig Key northward
to Flagler Beach...including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours. Hurricane warnings will likely
be issued for portions of the watch area later this morning.

A tropical storm watch remain in effect for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from south of Craig Key southward to the Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 22.9 north...longitude 73.0 west or about 35
miles... 60 km...north of Mayaguana island in the Bahamas. This is
also about 520 miles...835 km...east-southeast of Palm Beach
Florida.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph
...20 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On this track...the large core of Hurricane Frances will
be moving near or over the southeastern Bahamas this morning...and
near the central Bahamas this afternoon and evening.

Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...
235 km/hr...with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are
expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 936 mb...27.64 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the west side of eleuthra island...and
on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge flooding of
4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west
side of the other islands of the Bahamas.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are possible
in association with Frances.
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...22.9 N... 73.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 936 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am AST.

Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 34

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 02, 2004

an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft monitoring Frances
reports a central pressure of 936 mb and maximum flight-level winds
of 138 kt at 700 mb. A dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall
reported winds indicating surface winds near 125 kt...and that is
the initial intensity for this advisory. This is in good agreement
with 127 kt satellite intensity estimates from TAFB...SAB...and
AFWA. Satellite imagery indicates cooling of the cloud tops since
06z...although at the moment this convection is rather asymmetric.
The initial motion is 290/11. Frances continues on the southwest
side of the subtropical ridge...a feature that the large-scale
models are having a problem forecasting the evolution of. The
synoptic surveillance mission yesterday seems to have had little
effect on the models...as the GFS and GFDL still want to turn
Frances more northward....while the NOGAPS and UKMET still forecast
a west-northwestward motion across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
Given this lack of change...the only change in the forecast track
during the first 72 hr is based on the initial position and current
motion...with this part of the track in best agreement with the
NOGAPS. After 72 hr...the track is shifted westward toward the
UKMET and NOGAPS forecasts. The forecast track calls for landfall
in southeast or east central Florida in just over 48 hr.
However...people should not focus too closely on the exact track...
as small changes in direction could make a significant difference
in the landfall location.
Frances continues to show impressive outflow...although it may be
decreasing a little in the northwestern quadrant. The intensity of
Frances continues to be controlled by concentric eyewall cycles.
Since these are difficult to forecast...the intensity forecast will
call for 125 kt intensity until landfall. Given the current cloud
top cooling...Frances could reach 130-135 kt intensity on the up
side of the current cycle.

The southward shift in the forecast track requires the Hurricane
Watch to be extended southward into the upper Florida Keys. A
Hurricane Warning is not being issued for southeastern Florida at
this time as the 24 hr forecast keeps the tropical storm winds
offshore. However...hurricane warnings are likely on the next
advisory.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/0900z 22.9n 73.0w 125 kt
12hr VT 02/1800z 23.6n 74.4w 125 kt
24hr VT 03/0600z 24.6n 76.3w 125 kt
36hr VT 03/1800z 25.6n 78.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 04/0600z 26.6n 79.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 05/0600z 28.0n 81.5w 95 kt...inland
96hr VT 06/0600z 30.5n 84.0w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/0600z 33.5n 85.5w 25 kt...inland

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