Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-02 : Thursday Thread

N/A | 2004-09-02 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

Free Republic Community:



Welcome to Friday's Hurricane Frances news-thread !

It looks like a Melbourne Landfall after all, once again (to Section9's worst fears) churning it's way North-West to clobber Kissimmee and Gainsville ...



Well ... I made the round-trip Wednesday evening from Tampa--Palm Bay--Tampa to get the kids safely stowed away at a Days Inn in Clearwater.

There was only light traffic on the Hwy-192 route between Melbourne and Kissimmee.

Just a little heavier for the I-4 traffic for the next 80 miles to Tampa Clearwater.



BTW. I was told by a Melbourne-Palm Bay Firefighter that shelters were few and far between, and some of dubious safety.

Also discovered a "very neat" item called PLYTOX (???) used to secure external Plywood sheets to Stucco windows.




EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:

HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers












Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website




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[Patton@Bastogne]

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[sonofatpatcher2]

The Liberal Media will blame it all on Karl Rove, don't ya know...

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[Patton@Bastogne]

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[Diddle E. Squat]

No offense, but why start another Frances thread when there already is one at the top of Breaking News? This is the 12th thread started just since Sunday.

[Glenn]

It's Thursday.

[libtoken]

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 34...Corrected


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 02, 2004


...Correct spelling of dangerous in headline...

...Dangerous category four Frances continues west-northwestward
through the Bahamas...Florida Hurricane Watch extended southward...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Bahamas and
for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the Hurricane Watch is extended southward
along the Florida East Coast to Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for the Florida East Coast from Craig Key northward
to Flagler Beach...including Lake Okeechobee. A Hurricane Watch
means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours. Hurricane warnings will likely
be issued for portions of the watch area later this morning.

A tropical storm watch remain in effect for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from south of Craig Key southward to the Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay.

At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 22.9 north...longitude 73.0 west or about 35
miles... 60 km...north of Mayaguana island in the Bahamas. This is
also about 520 miles...835 km...east-southeast of Palm Beach
Florida.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph
...20 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. On this track...the large core of Hurricane Frances will
be moving near or over the southeastern Bahamas this morning...and
near the central Bahamas this afternoon and evening.

Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...
235 km/hr...with higher gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are
expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 936 mb...27.64 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the west side of eleuthra island...and
on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge flooding of
4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west
side of the other islands of the Bahamas.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are possible
in association with Frances.
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...22.9 N... 73.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 936 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am AST.

Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 34


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 02, 2004



an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft monitoring Frances
reports a central pressure of 936 mb and maximum flight-level winds
of 138 kt at 700 mb. A dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall
reported winds indicating surface winds near 125 kt...and that is
the initial intensity for this advisory. This is in good agreement
with 127 kt satellite intensity estimates from TAFB...SAB...and
AFWA. Satellite imagery indicates cooling of the cloud tops since
06z...although at the moment this convection is rather asymmetric.
The initial motion is 290/11. Frances continues on the southwest
side of the subtropical ridge...a feature that the large-scale
models are having a problem forecasting the evolution of. The
synoptic surveillance mission yesterday seems to have had little
effect on the models...as the GFS and GFDL still want to turn
Frances more northward....while the NOGAPS and UKMET still forecast
a west-northwestward motion across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
Given this lack of change...the only change in the forecast track
during the first 72 hr is based on the initial position and current
motion...with this part of the track in best agreement with the
NOGAPS. After 72 hr...the track is shifted westward toward the
UKMET and NOGAPS forecasts. The forecast track calls for landfall
in southeast or east central Florida in just over 48 hr.
However...people should not focus too closely on the exact track...
as small changes in direction could make a significant difference
in the landfall location.
Frances continues to show impressive outflow...although it may be
decreasing a little in the northwestern quadrant. The intensity of
Frances continues to be controlled by concentric eyewall cycles.
Since these are difficult to forecast...the intensity forecast will
call for 125 kt intensity until landfall. Given the current cloud
top cooling...Frances could reach 130-135 kt intensity on the up
side of the current cycle.

The southward shift in the forecast track requires the Hurricane
Watch to be extended southward into the upper Florida Keys. A
Hurricane Warning is not being issued for southeastern Florida at
this time as the 24 hr forecast keeps the tropical storm winds
offshore. However...hurricane warnings are likely on the next
advisory.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/0900z 22.9n 73.0w 125 kt
12hr VT 02/1800z 23.6n 74.4w 125 kt
24hr VT 03/0600z 24.6n 76.3w 125 kt
36hr VT 03/1800z 25.6n 78.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 04/0600z 26.6n 79.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 05/0600z 28.0n 81.5w 95 kt...inland
96hr VT 06/0600z 30.5n 84.0w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/0600z 33.5n 85.5w 25 kt...inland

[VeniVidiVici]

Bump

[Strategerist]

Every single forecast track map in this thread is old; some 4 advisories old.

The 5AM NHC forecast track is for a landfall in the West Palm Beach-Jupiter area. Moved southwards.

[VeniVidiVici]

The 5AM NHC forecast track is for a landfall in the West Palm Beach-Jupiter area. Moved southwards.

Yes. Has certainly thrown a wrench into the forecasts of some of the internet storm pundits.

Quiet thread so far. Maybe everyone is out buying plywood (where I'll be going shortly).

[RottiBiz]

Thanks for posting, Patton.

Our son is evacuating Melbourne Beach at this time and we're in the Panhandle.

This is the best place for the most up-to-date information.

[Aracelis]

It's Thursday.

Whew! I thought I had missed my thursday class! :)

[NonValueAdded]

Anyone notice that this AM it is "Red sky at morning?"

[ElisabethInCincy]

I have a question,I have been followin this hurricane with great interest . not being in florida though.. But this thing seems HUGE ? How much bigger than charley is Frances ? My prayers are with all floridians...

[Strategerist]

Charley was unusually small.

Frances is somewhat wider than average, but not huge as Atlantic hurricanes go. Floyd was wider...Gilbert was MUCH wider.

[NonValueAdded]

Anyone know offhand the offest from EDT to UTC?

[NonValueAdded]

offset

[Robert A. Cook, PE]

Must be a democratic storm.

It's starting to curve a bit left as it nears south FL.

[Robert A. Cook, PE]

UTC -> as in universal time?

[Robert A. Cook, PE]

http://www.timetemperature.com/tzus/time_zone_codes_us.shtml

This has a map and other info too.

[Aracelis]

Here is some additional info for those of us unfamiliar with hurricanes:

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Hurricane Basics

[NonValueAdded]

Thanks much ... I got EDT = GMT (UTC) - 4. Just trying to find a fast way to tell the age of the satellite photos. So the 10:45 UTC IR photo is 6:45 EDT or 45 minutes old.

[Aracelis]

Here's a convenient chart to help with UTC conversions:

UTC

[NonValueAdded]

Latest GOES Storm Floater 1 GOES Storm Floater Visible image (updated every half hour on the :15)

[My Favorite Headache]

Ya'll need to pay attention to 3 things:

1.Remember how the state sits parallel with the storm...

2. The worst side of this storm will still be on the North and East meaning places like Melbourne,St.Lucie,Vero Beach are going to get pounded the hardest tomorrow night and Saturday.

3. The storm is moving WNW..not W how some people on the net are claiming it to be. This is not a Palm Beach storm...but go North about 50-60 miles and then you have landfall.

This is still way too unpredictable and will be over land for up to 24 hours with winds from 50-145 mph in all directions.

[VeniVidiVici]

This is still way too unpredictable and will be over land for up to 24 hours with winds from 50-145 mph in all directions

This is the part that sucks.

Unlike Charlie, which was a fast mover, this storm could dump tons of rain and keep us in the high wind zone for much, much longer than Charlie.

I think we got maybe an inch of rain and had hurricane force winds for maybe an hour/hour and a half from Charlie. And the eye came right over my town!

[NautiNurse]

The graphics are significantly dated in this thread.

The ridge was noted during the wee hours via dropsonde to be much stronger than initially thought. Thus, the storm did not make its anticipated NW turn.

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 34a
Statement as of 8:00 am AST on September 02, 2004

 

...Dangerous category four Frances pounding the southeast
Bahamas...heading toward the central Bahamas...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Bahamas and
for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within
the next 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida East Coast from Craig
Key northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake Okeechobee.  A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.  Hurricane warnings
will likely be issued for portions of the watch area later this
morning. 

 
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the middle Florida Keys
from south of Craig Key southward to the Seven Mile Bridge...
including Florida Bay.

 
At 8 am AST...1200z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 23.2 north...longitude  73.5 west or about 80 miles
...135 km...southeast of San Salvador island in the Bahamas.  This
is also about 470 miles...755 km...east-southeast of Palm Beach
Florida.

 
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr
...And this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. 
On this track...the large core of Hurricane Frances will continue
to move near or over the southeastern Bahamas this morning...and
near the central Bahamas this afternoon and evening.

 
Frances remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale.  Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...
235 km/hr...with higher gusts.  Fluctuations in intensity are
expected during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. San Salvador in the Bahamas is currently
reporting winds to 52 mph...83 km/hr.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is  939 mb...27.73 inches.

 
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the west side of Eleuthera island...and
on the north side of Grand Bahama Island.  Storm surge flooding of
4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west
side of the other islands of the Bahamas.

 
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are possible
in association with Frances.

 
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States.  These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

 
Repeating the 8 am AST position...23.2 N... 73.5 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 939 mb.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am AST.

 
Forecaster Avila

[tutstar]

Did you post this in Breaking? It took me a few minutes to find it. Yesterday's thread started in breaking but I see it got moved as well.

[tutstar]

They get really huge if they continue for days, and for me, at least, it's easier to keep up with 600 posts than getting lost in 2000.

[tutstar]

I'm gathering my photos and doing laundry! Have the plywood already! That stuff ain't cheap!!

[tutstar]

Today is Thursday, isn't it? You're going to confuse the blonde (me). Can we correct?

[Quilla]

My local paper (Dothan, AL) has devoted much of this morning's front page to Frances. Sorry I can't be more precise with sources, but the article mentioned the possibility of a wall of water from 20-40 feet high. This is going to be one bad storm where ever it hits.

Does anyone know, is all the power even restored yet in the areas affected by Charley?

[sheikdetailfeather]

Todays path now is bringing it in at Stuart (More South!). Looks like the line goes straight for Winter Haven. I heard on the National Weather Channel that if the Bermuda High weakens and the hurricane slows down, it could go north to the Carolinas. I thought I heard something about a cold front coming into play Saturday which will steer her as well. I just woke up when I heard all of this so I am not as clear on the exact details.

[jimfree]

My daughter and her family live in Indiatlantic (on the coast outside of Melbourne.) They will be staying the weekend at a Disney property in Orlando. Their cats will be staying at the boarded up house and cowering as the storm passes over.

One of the tracks I saw has Frances crossing Florida (over Orlando) and turning north in the Gulf toward my mother's mobile home in Milton.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Just heard this stat on Frances: This hurricane has 50,000 square miles of tropical storm force winds!!

[tutstar]

This is still way too unpredictable

That bears repeating!

This is still way too unpredictable!

[jpsb]

Frances is really not all that big compared to the really big Atlantic storms. Allen took up almost the entire gulf of Mexico.

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Admin Moderator


Please delete this thread.

I typed it at 3 AM just after returning from a round-trip drive from Tampa-Melbourne to pick-up my four teenaged kids and ex-wife, who drove like a 55 MPH all the way down I-4 to Tampa.


I was exhausted when creating the thread, plus dealing with "oldest teenaged daughter" issues that I'd rather not discuss here, other than to say she (19 years old) brought along her 32-year ex-English teacher boyfriend, complete with his dog, all that I'm apparently expected to spend almost $ 5000 (unexpectedly) over the next three days/nights.


Hell, after all that, wouldn't YOU forget that today was Thursday, and NOT Friday (LOL).


Again, please delete this thread.



Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website

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[Humvee]

Gas stations in Ft. Lauderdale & Boca Raton are now running out of gas - a number are closed, others have long lines.

[OXENinFLA]

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...............What happened to Thursday!?!?!!

[Nexus]

This hurricane has 50,000 square miles of tropical storm force winds!!

[VeniVidiVici]

Mod can just change the title, can't they?

This thread seems hard enough to keep going today. Is there another?

[Patton@Bastogne]

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See Post 38.

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[OXENinFLA]

I know, just joking around......... };)

[jpsb]

So you made a frekin typo, big deal.

[Quilla]

I was exhausted when creating the thread, plus dealing with "oldest teenaged daughter" issues that I'd rather not discuss here, other than to say she (19 years old) brought along her 32-year ex-English teacher boyfriend, complete with his dog, all that I'm apparently expected to spend almost $ 5000 (unexpectedly) over the next three days/nights.

Bless you. I have an 18 year old daughter that has been a gift from God. After reading your comments, I'm still reeling. God bless you all, may he give you strength.

[Patton@Bastogne]

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OXENinFLA, Section9


I still think this thing barrels through Melbourne, Palm Bay .... remember Charley's last minute turn ashore at Punta Gorda.






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[commish]

PRayer Request :

my mother is currently in the hospital in Stuart with cancer complications. They are hoping to release her this afternoon, but it does not look like that will happen. As Such she will be riding out the storm in the hospital.

MY stepdad and Cousin are boarding up the house and bugging out tonight. Except they are evacuating to My Aunt's house in Daytona Beach. UGH .. I tried to tell them that a little jog north brings Daytona under the gun and that they need to head to My Brothers at Ft Walton or up here to Montgomery, but they are set on Daytona being fine.

Also, I have a very good friend stationed here with me whose entire family lives in the Stuart/Prot St. Lucie cooridor. His Sister is already packing up and on the way here, but his parents and Brother are boarding up and planning on riding it out. We are trying to reason/beg/Plead with them to get out, but so far no joy.

[RottiBiz]

You have my sympathies -- the least of your worries is what day of the week it is!

I think most of us can figure it out... ;-)

Again, thanks for posting.

[Lakeside]

Oh my! Prayers for your mother(and you).

Most of the folks who *choose* to ride out a storm of this magnitude have never been through one before. They will regret their decision. I pray they will *live* to regret their decision!