Bush's final triumph over Kerry will be when Kerry's frustration leads him to publicly insinuate that the capture of OBL was timed for the election. What were the Democrats thinking when they picked that loser to run against Bush?
Bush should just say - "Of course it was, that's how we do things in Texas!" "I told you I intend to be re-elected".
You are assuming Democrats CAN think. You might be assuming too much.
Possibility #1: Hillary in 2008
Possibility #2: Banking on, and facilitating, Kerry's meltdown requiring him to step aside at literally the last minute (after the debates, of course), putting John Edwards in the #1 slot, with an agreement already in place to put Hillary on the ticket with him.