Posted on 09/03/2004 11:17:10 PM PDT by bd476
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004
...FRANCES NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES ...70 KM...EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 135 MILES EAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A RETURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION CAN BE EXPECTED AS STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY.
FRANCES IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BORDERLINE CATEGORY TWO/THREE HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES...175 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL CAN BE EXPECTED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES OVER THE BAHAMAS.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Still time for this hurricane to gain strength.
Don't let your guard down Florida.
Tremendous flooding is expected with Frances. Rainfall amounts will likely be 8-15 inches across the state.
STAY SAFE
The latest reports are somewhat optimistic. It's probably best to stay in a prepared mode.
Saturday Hurricane Frances Thread Ping
Atlantic Tropical Weather Center
http://www.atwc.org/
Hurricane Frances Saturday Update
Moving a 6 mph? I don't think I can recall a slower moving storm. That doesn't bode well for flooding problems.
Keep safe, Fla. Freepers! Prayers for you.
The infrared makes it look like the left half of the storm is missing. It'll be hard for it to intensify.
Port St. Lucie checkin' in.
Alls calm as far as I can tell.
Plywood windows really cuts down on outside noise.
Actually pretty cool. :-)
Bring it, Francis, you #%ore! Tired of waitin'!!
I feel for the people in the Bahamas.
Frances been sitting on them for almost 2 days.
I get the feeling Frances will start to speed up during the day?
Thanks! Continuing discussion.
There is a concern that Hurricane Frances' threat will turn out to be at least as much about flooding as about wind.
How long does it take to get one plywood sheet up over a window? How do you attach it if you have aluminum siding or brick?
Stay safe and hang in there.
Power company just burped and rebooted me...
anyway,, TV report sez cat 2 I'm likin' it!!
Can't let somethin' named "frances" kick my ass! My dad would roll over in his ,,um.. urn.
I hope so. Otherwise, it will be a very wet weekend for you guys.
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