[POA2]

Something's gotta be wrong here. There are two polls that contradict this beyond the MOEs.

The Newsweek poll is closer to RASS if you look at the proper weightings - The only reason the Newsweek poll shows such a large lead is do to the over-sampling of REP's -

Now I do think Rass is skewed a little toward the Dem's as well - I think GWB has a 5 to 8 pt lead right now -

[ableChair]

The Newsweek poll is closer to RASS if you look at the proper weightings - The only reason the Newsweek poll shows such a large lead is do to the over-sampling of REP's -

I don't think we have enough information yet to conclude that for two reasons:
The Time poll mirrors the newsweek poll; so you have to establish that something is wrong with BOTH of those polls.
Secondly, whether or not they polled more Reps than Dems is irrelevant unless we know the proportion of Reps and Dems who will be voting on Nov 2; i.e. they need not be equal.

[NYC Republican]

If you adjust the Newsweek Poll to reflect the same percentages as the 2000 election (38D/35R/27I), using the raw data, Bush would be at 50%, Skerry at 43%... So, it's a 7 point gap, not an 11 point gap... Still solid, especially since most of it came before Bush's speech.

One item to note, though... If Ras is right, then a good number of people were turned off by Bush's speech... There wasn't a whole lot that was new, and Mon-Wed, we were exposed to GOP stars... It's just possible that people saw Bush again, and thought back to everything they've heard about him the past year (various 527s, Kennedy, Dem candidates) and many of those lies have stuck...

Unlikely, but possible.