Posted on 09/06/2004 2:09:27 AM PDT by NautiNurse
...Frances getting a little better organized over the warm waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwest Gulf Coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island northward to Destin.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida West Coast from south of Englewood has been discontinued. Also... the Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida East Coast from south of Cocoa Beach has been discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida West Coast from south of Anna Maria Island to Englewood...and along the Florida East Coast and the Georgia coast from Cocoa Beach Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Frances was located near latitude 28.7 north...longitude 83.5 west or about 115 miles...southeast of Apalachicola Florida.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...and a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected by this afternoon. On the forecast track...the center of Frances should continue moving over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico...and make landfall over the central portion of the Florida Panhandle by this evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours...and Frances could become a hurricane again just before landfall occurs.
Frances remains a large tropical cyclone with tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the center...especially to the northeast. A sustained wind of 55 mph with a gust 67 mph was reported at a C-man weather station located about 25 miles southeast of Apalachicola Florida. A sustained wind of 42 mph with a gust 54 mph was reported at Cedar Key Florida. A sustained wind of 45 mph with a gust to 55 mph was reported earlier this morning at St. Augustine on the northeast Florida coast.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb...28.97 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding along with large and dangerous battering waves continue along the North Florida East Coast...but will gradually subside later today. Storm surge flooding of up to 4 feet above normal levels is expected to subside on Monday. Along the southwest Florida coast...storm surge flooding of 2 to 3 feet above normal tide levels is expected south of Tarpon Springs. Storm surge flooding of 6 to 10 feet above normal tide levels is expected along the northeast Gulf Coast of Florida to the north of Tarpon Springs...especially at the head of Apalachee Bay.
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts... are expected over portions of the southeastern United States... especially along and to the east of the wide path of Frances.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of northern Florida and the Florida Panhandle...southeast Alabama and southern Georgia.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...28.7 N... 83.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 981 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Had to really fight to open the back door to check the boat. Storm surge looks to have reached max level--but then, you never know with this storm.
You know it's a nasty day when my ill tempered cat that usually lives in our back yard and refuses to come into the house is loudly meowing at the back door to come in.
She usually lives under the porch, and never gets wet in storms (she wasn't wet this AM either), but I think the winds have her rattled. So she's decided the house isn't such a bad place after all, at least as a temporary refuge.
Ping
I'm betting there are are a lot of Tampa/St. Pete residents taken by surprise this morning.
now that Frances has moved over the warm waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico...thunderstorms activity has steadily increased near the tight circulation center during the past 6 hours. The last recon report at around 05z indicated a ragged eye was trying to form...which has also been noted in Doppler radar data from Tallahassee and Tampa. The banding features to the northwest of the center over the Gulf of Mexico have also continued to improve. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on recon flight-level wind conversions and a dropsonde report to the northwest.
The initial motion estimate is 300/10 based on radar and recon observations. The NHC model guidance in good agreement on Frances moving west-northwestward around the southwestern portion of the subtropical ridge axis that extends east-west along 32n latitude. The primary difference in the mdoels is how sharp of a turn Frances will make upon reaching 32n. The GFS appears to make too sharp of a northeastward turn given the current large diameter of Frances. The official forecast is close to the previous forecast track and is close the GUNA model consensus.
Now that the center of Frances is back over warm water...some re-strengthening is possible. Water temperatures are near 83-84f and upper-level outflow is still quite impressive. Frances could reach minimal category 1 hurricane strength just as it makes landfall in the central portion of the Florida Panhandle given the tighter inner-core convective banding features that have developed and the relatively low central pressure of 981 mb...which is typical of a 75-kt hurricane.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 06/0900z 28.7n 83.5w 55 kt 12hr VT 06/1800z 29.9n 84.8w 65 kt...inland 24hr VT 07/0600z 31.2n 85.5w 40 kt...inland 36hr VT 07/1800z 32.4n 85.8w 30 kt...inland 48hr VT 08/0600z 33.9n 85.6w 25 kt...inland 72hr VT 09/0600z 37.8n 83.0w 20 kt...inland 96hr VT 10/0600z 42.5n 78.0w 20 kt...inland extratropical 120hr VT 11/0600z...absorbed by frontal system
So far, I only have minor damage (screens blown out of my lanai). But the day's not over yet. Still boarded up and hunkering down until this beast gets out of town...
Ivan? Not another one!
Please try to get some rest and God Bless you and yours.
Frances is not through yet Ping.
It's a good thing that cats are smart or she'd be one drenched mammal.
Stay warm, rested and safe inside applies to humans, too. That cat needs her kitty food and a few strokes behind her ears, LOL!
Ping.
Inverness here.
No power since 8:50 am Saturday. Trees and limbs down all over the place.
No major home damage to any I can see from my home.
Had a ball chasing the damn ignorant sight seers, aka ... opportunists, aka ... potential scavengers, aka ... looters, from the area last night.
Generator needs a bigger fuel tank. Two and a half hours just isn't long enough for anything but a catnap.
Hope all others from "paradise are okay.
Fortunately, we had our high tide at 0500. These feeder bands seem worse this morning than last night.
The rain bands are just now entering Bay County, so it looks like it will be an interesting day.
What we don't need is for the electricity to go out (no air conditioning and no internet).
Looking forward to sunrise here with a mixed feelings. Yesterday morning, found one of the big fence gates on the ground, and all of the avocados. With this continued pounding, no telling what surprises are in store here when the sun comes up.
Looks like we'll be getting more of this stuff all day. At least we won't be waiting for the hurricane to come. My wife and daughters have got to get out to the mall for their shopping fix or they'll be sulking and complaining all day (g).
You are in for a long day. Hang in there! Please check in periodically.
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