SurveyUSA: OH Bush 50% Kerry 47%, NC B 50% K 46%, CA K 52% B 42%

Survey USA ^ | 9/9/04

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

IN AN ELECTION IN OHIO TODAY, 54 DAYS TO THE VOTE, REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT GEORGE W BUSH DEFEATS JOHN KERRY 50% TO 47% & REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT GEORGE VOINOVICH DEFEATS ERIC FINGERHUT 53% TO 35%, ACCORDING TO SURVEYUSA POLL OF 709 LIKELY OH VOTERS 9/6 TO 9/8.

* BUSH UP 20 IN CENTRAL OH, UP 15 IN WESTERN OH, DOWN 16 IN EASTERN OH. BUSH UP 12 AMONG WHITES, DOWN 66 AMONG BLACKS. BUSH UP 16 IN HHS EARNING > $80K/YEAR. KERRY UP 11 IN HHS EARNING < $40K/YR. INDYS BREAK 5:4 FOR BUSH. MODERATES BREAK 5:3 FOR KERRY.

* 22% OF THOSE WHO VOTE FOR KERRY SPLIT TICKET & CROSS-OVER TO VOINOVICH. VOINOVICH UP 31 IN RURAL OH, UP 20 IN SUBURBAN OH, UP 8 IN URBAN OH. INDYS GO 2:1 FOR VOINOVICH. MODERATES TIE. FINGERHUT UP 6 AMONG PRO-CHOICE VOTERS, UP 39 AMONG LIBERALS.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Three states polled by SUSA today, topping the list OH where Bush is up 50% to 47%, NC where Bush is up 50% to 46% and CA where Kerry is up 52% to 42%.

Also included for OH is the Senate race where Voinovich is up 53%-35%, for NC, Easley leads Ballantine 54%-39%, Bowles over Burr 50%-40%, and in CA, Boxer over Jones 53%-35%.

[Azzurri]

I don't like those NC numbers.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

OH breaks down at 35% R, 37% D, 26% I. Any word on how that stacks up with registered voter rolls?

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

IN AN ELECTION IN NC TODAY, GEORGE W BUSH CAPTURES NC'S 15 ELECTORAL VOTES, BUT DEMOCRATS KEEP THE STATEHOUSE & KEEP THE U.S. SENATE SEAT BEING VACATED BY JOHN EDWARDS, ACCORDING TO SURVEYUSA POLL OF 587 LIKELY VOTERS CONDUCTED 9/6 - 9/8. * TODAY, BUSH DEFEATS KERRY 50% TO 46%. IN IDENTICAL POLL 7/27, BEFORE DNC, BUSH LED BY 7. ON 8/16 BUSH LED BY 6. TODAY BY 4. BUSH UP 2:1 WITH WHITES, DOWN 18:1 WITH BLACKS. * BUSH UP 11 WITH MALES, TIED WITH FEMALES. WEST & CENTRAL NC GO BUSH. EAST GOES KERRY.

* MIKE EASLEY HAD LED PATRICK BALLANTINE ON 8/16, AFTER GOP PRIMARY, BY 7, TODAY BY 15.

* ERSKINE BOWLES HAD LED RICHARD BURR BY 8, NOW BY 10. 19% OF BUSH VOTERS SPLIT-TICKET.

[paul51]

As usual, CA a never ending source of embarrassment

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

Me neither, and here's why...NC breakdown:

36% R, 43% D, 20% I.

Highly unusual numbers for NC? Giving 7 pts to the Dems and still showing Bush at 50%, up 4, is pretty good.

[RWR8189]

ping

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

IN AN ELECTION IN CA TODAY, JOHN KERRY DEFEATS GEORGE W BUSH 52% TO 42%, CAPTURING CA'S 55 ELECTORAL VOTES, & INCUMBENT U.S. SENATOR BARBARA BOXER DEFEATS BILL JONES 53% TO 35%, ACCORDING TO SURVEYUSA POLL OF 598 LIKELY CA VOTERS CONDUCTED 9/6 - 9/8.

* BUSH & KERRY TIE AMONG MALES & WHITES. KERRY'S LEAD COMES FROM FEMALES & MINORITY VOTERS. BUSH UP 17 PTS IN CENTRAL VALLEY, UP 5 PTS IN INLAND EMPIRE. KERRY UP 17 PTS IN GREATER LOS ANGELES, UP 32 PTS IN THE BAY AREA. KERRY UP 5 AMONG INDEPENDENTS.

* 13% OF THOSE WHO VOTE FOR GOP BUSH PEEL-OFF & VOTE FOR DEM0CRAT BOXER. BOXER UP BY 3 PTS AMONG MEN, UP BY 31 PTS AMONG WOMEN. BOXER UP 2 PTS AMONG WHITES, UP BIG AMONG BLACKS, HISPANICS & ASIANS. JONES LEADS IN CENTRAL VALLEY, TRAILS ELSEWHERE.

Way too many girlie men in CA.

[arasina]

California sucks politically. :o)

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

CA breaks down 32% R, 43% D, 22% I...which I *know* is out of whack...registered R's in CA is 39%, 43% for D's.

[CommerceComet]

I believe that NC is one of the states where advertising is being pulled by the Democrats so I don't believe those numbers. I bet that both campaigns have polling numbers that look different these reported numbers in NC.

FWIW, my instincts tell me that Bush is further ahead in both NC and OH and further behind in CA.

[SamAdams76]

We are going to see a great many polls from here until Election Day. I believe that Bush will be favored in a great many of them in a large number of states. Already, we are seeing a trend to Bush.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

SUSA is a top notch pollster, but these polls all seem to overweight Democrats, especially in NC and CA. This would make sense after the Dem Con, but not now.

Taking this into account, plus Bush showing 50% in OH and NC, and with more realistic weighting in CA putting the race within 5 or so pts, this is very bad news for Kerry.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

FWIW, my instincts tell me that Bush is further ahead in both NC and OH and further behind in CA.

SUSA is spotting Dems 7 pts in NC and CA, so I would half agree with you. The race is likely closer in CA than 10 pts and more wide open in OH and NC.

[SamAdams76]

Kerry is such an awful candidate that even though many Democrats will tell pollsters that they will vote for him over Bush, some of them won't even bother going to the polls this November 2.

Most ardent "Kerry supporters" are lukewarm on the guy too. They just hate Bush. Well hate is not a very good basis for a winning campaign.

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

36% R, 43% D, 20% I. Highly unusual numbers for NC? Giving 7 pts to the Dems and still showing Bush at 50%, up 4, is pretty good.

Last SUSA NC poll from 3 weeks ago had a 39% R, 43% D, 16% I breakdown. Not surprisingly, that poll showed Bush with a bigger lead by 2%.

[JohnnyZ]

Yeah, the NC #s are puzzling to me .... seems pretty Democrat-friendly across the board .... I very much doubt Kerry is w/in 4.

[snarkytart]

Noway is Kerry is within striking distance in NC.

I thought another Ohio state poll had the president up by 8???

[wvromania]

I don't believe the CA poll., just remember if BUSH can Swing CA, it is over. they won't need FL.

[Teacher317]

16% of Blacks in OH? The Dems are going to be screaming Uncle Toms for months.