Bush Support Strong After Convention; Kerry Favorability Rating Plunges in New Survey

Washington Post ^ | 9/10

[ambrose]

Bush Support Strong After Convention

Kerry Favorability Rating Plunges in New Survey

By Richard Morin and Dan Balz

Washington Post Staff Writers

Friday, September 10, 2004; Page A01

-snip-

In the five weeks since the Democratic convention, Kerry's favorable rating has plunged. Besides a relentless pounding from the GOP, Kerry has experienced attacks on his Vietnam War service from a group of Vietnam veterans, and the Democrat's comments about Iraq have been a source of controversy. Kerry's favorable rating fell from 51 percent at beginning of August to 36 percent among registered voters in the new Post-ABC News poll, while his unfavorable rating rose from 32 percent to 42 percent.

Bush's favorable rating rose slightly to 51 percent, and his overall approval rating rose another notch to 52 percent. An identical percentage of voters said Bush deserves a second term. Strategists in both campaigns have watched Bush's approval rating closely as an indicator of his reelection prospects. That rating fell below 50 percent in May and has been inching back up over the summer. History suggests that Bush will be formidable in November if his approval rating remains in the low 50s, vulnerable if he is in the 40s.

-snip-

[teletech]

That's if we even make it THAT far. Senator Kerry is literally on the edge of a "Howard Dean moment" within the next week or so at the rate things are going.

You mean Howard taught Kerry "the scream"? Sounds wonderful, I can't wait.

[swilhelm73]

Hmm, Kerry's at 36% among registered voters...

Ok...well what about likely voters? Generally speaking likely voters trend more Rep then registered voters who trend more Rep then just adults.

[bt_dooftlook]

From "The Philadelphia Story" - "To hardly know him is to know him well"

[jps098]

You mean like KQQL.

[MHT]

Other than the battleground states' electoral projections, the only set of numbers we should be watching right now are the jobs numbers for October.

Interest rates will continue to be low (looks like Greenspan is going to give W. the rates he didn't give his father in '92), the market is poised to stay above 10,000 (no serious movement down and it seems to go up with each new pro-Bush poll), and, God willing, the Iraq war fatality numbers will stay lower than 3.5 day [hopefully less than 200 between now and the election] (which is the general US death rate for a population of 150,000 in that age group).

[JasonC]

Correct diagnosis. Few people knew him nationally before this year. Only news junkies knew his protestor record before the last month or so. The Dems carefully hid who he is, but naturally it came out. The American people can respect principled doves and even pacifists, but attacking veterans as war criminals is simply beyond the pale to mainstream America. Only the far left likes that sort of thing.

[Vision Thing]

He's Marianas Trench material.

That's a deep thought! :-)

[LS]

That's their strat, but the "mud" they are slinging is the wrong mud. It's "vietnam" mud, which means that ANY TIME you raise the Vietnam issue---even indirectly by attacking BUSH'S Vietnam service---it hurts Kerry. So let 'em go, by all means.