Posted on 09/20/2004 6:30:06 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan
Presidential race tightens in Michigan
9/20/2004, 6:37 p.m. ET
By KATHY BARKS HOFFMAN
The Associated Press
LANSING, Mich. (AP) — The race between Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry and President Bush has tightened in Michigan, with Kerry and running mate John Edwards getting 48 percent and 44 percent going to Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, according to a new poll released Monday by Lansing-based EPIC/MRA.
An early August poll conducted by EPIC/MRA had the Democrats leading the GOP ticket 49 percent to 42 percent, with third party candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo getting 3 percent and 6 percent undecided.
Nader and Camejo got 2 percent in the latest poll, with 6 percent undecided.
The poll was conducted Wednesday through Sunday and surveyed 600 likely Michigan voters. The August and September polls both had margins of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Half of those surveyed in September said they had a favorable opinion of Kerry, while 41 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 8 percent were undecided. Asked about the Republican president, 45 percent had a favorable opinion and 50 percent had an unfavorable opinion, with 4 percent undecided.
Only a quarter had a favorable opinion of Nader, who is running as an independent in Michigan after qualifying for the ballot with the help of signatures collected by Republicans. Fifty-four percent had an unfavorable opinion, and 19 percent were undecided.
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released last Thursday showed Kerry leading Bush, 50 percent to 44 percent, among 673 likely voters statewide, with Nader getting 1 percent. The Sept. 10-13 poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Craig Ruff of Public Sector Consultants, a Lansing think tank, said it's looking more and more likely that Michigan will continue its 16-year tradition of voting for the Democratic presidential candidate.
"It would seem likely that the Bush campaign would be focusing on ... states that offer greater potential, such as Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania," Ruff said. "It remains to be seen how much longer the Bush campaign chooses to challenge Michigan."
So far, the Bush campaign shows no signs of pulling back. Vice President Dick Cheney will meet with about 100 supporters Tuesday at a Lansing restaurant, then hold a town hall meeting Wednesday at the Ukrainian Cultural Center in Warren.
The president was in Michigan last week on a daylong bus tour to Muskegon, Holland and Battle Creek, trying to improve voters' perceptions of his domestic policies by condemning Democrats for going negative — even as he held Kerry's plans up to the harshest possible light.
In a speech to the Detroit Economic Club last Wednesday morning, Kerry challenged Bush's credibility on jobs, the record national deficit and the war in Iraq.
A majority of Michigan voters polled in the most recent EPIC/MRA survey — 51 percent — continued to say this month that the country is on the wrong track, while 37 percent say it's going in the right direction and 12 percent are undecided.
Economic issues were still their top concern, with 32 percent saying they're most interested in what's being done to improve the economy and provide jobs. Michigan's jobless rate in August was 6.7 percent, and the state has fewer jobs than when Bush took office.
But while last month's poll showed protecting America from terrorism and health care were tied for second place at 15 percent each, 19 percent now say terrorism is their top concern. Health care came in third, with 14 percent.
Forty-three percent in the September poll gave the president a positive job rating, while 56 percent gave him a negative rating and 1 percent were undecided. In August, Bush's job rating was 46 percent positive, 54 percent negative.
I want to see the Mitchell (Usually GOP leaning) poll.
Ping
Slightly better than Mason-Dixon and Gallup. Mighigan hasn't quite moved like the other battleground states yet.
Hopefully, it eventually will. I know the economy is not the best there though.
I've seen this in two many polls, add Nader and Bush loses points. I guess I shouldn't have collected any signatures to get him on the Ohio ballot.
Given the turning of other states in the midwest to Bush, I'm coming to doubt we will win Michigan. But we should keep contesting it to make Kerry waste money there.
Hmmm, all of these state polls show a tightening or lead for Bush in Gore states and widening leads in Bush states. So why does pew, harris,ARG, rasmussen and FNC opion dynamics show a much closer race than what state by state polling otherwise suggests.
Granholms +14 became +4
Bush's +6 became -5
Engler's -12 became a 17000 win.
I think the last dem state house speaker (Curtis Hertel) went to PSC. I won't swear to that, but that may explain some of it.
Considering the strangle hold that the UAW has over Michigan politics, it is remarkable that Bush is only 4 percentage points behind.
Not really. Michigan races are almost always down to the wire.
I know. It seems like the Michigan numbers are just plain stuck. Maybe it won't be possible to move them.
I'd suggest that there are more socialists in the MEA (Michigan Education A-thugs) than the UAW.
That seems to happen in almost all of the polls. Why would Bush lose voters to Nader?
It is only a matter of time until Bush pulls even, and then a bit ahead, in Michigan. Kerry is still falling and MemoGate is not going to stop any time soon. It is like Watergate.
I have 2 theories on that
Theory 1 These voters are paleocons, Buchananites, call them what you will. They won't vote D (never have and won't start now) but they will vote for a socialist "bring em home yesterday guy"
Theory 2 They are Muslims who won't vote for the gay marraige pro-abort party (D) but will vote for the Lebanese anti-war guy.
Either way or a combination of both there is one common strain, and it's not a love of Israel (to say it subtly).
I accept your criticism of the MEA.
I ride the train every day with a man who has said loudly that he despises Kerry as a liar and fraud, and if he can't vote for "an honest man like Nader" as he puts it, he will vote for Bush.
He's been saying this since spring. He can't be the only one.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.