Posted on 09/28/2004 9:49:44 AM PDT by jbwbubba
Surge Protector As you watch the debate on Thursday night, remember: No matter what happens, on Friday morning, you're going to hear that the race is tightening. by Mike Murphy 09/28/2004 11:45:00 AM
A SURE BET in this campaign is that the media will write a big October comeback story for John Kerry. It is evitable for three reasons. First, the media works in a pack that is happiest when following a simple narrative. Second, from moribund to miracle campaigner is Kerry's tiresome myth turned worn-out cliché. Third, this is indeed a tight race and--as with any incumbent seeking reelection--the undecided vote will break heavily against Bush, which will make Kerry look like he is surging late. (Even hapless Michael Dukakis had such a late surge.)
The signs of this pending storyline are already apparent in the coverage of Kerry's new team of savvy advisors. Their decision to bet the entire Kerry campaign on a debate over the Iraq war--a strategic suicide note in my view--is the required "big move" such stories demand and is being applauded as a masterstroke. This is where narrative and reality truly differ. If President Bush wins this campaign, the decision to focus the entire Kerry campaign on a debate over the war, instead of on domestic issues, will be a key ingredient to the president's success. Kerry's mistake is that it is impossible to have a serious campaign-winning political victory over the administration without a serious policy difference between the two. Howard Dean had a policy difference with the Bush administration on Iraq; Kerry essentially does not.
All his squirming and wiggling aside, Kerry essentially supported the war. Quibbling over
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
Pat Cadell said that the late undecideds usually break for the incumbent, that this challenger's late-surge from undecideds theory is just a myth.
Senator Kerry won the Democratic primary by disagreeing with Governor Dean.
Additionally, I have yet to see hard evidence for the oft-repeated statement that undecideds always break toward the challenger.
"Howard Dean had a policy difference with the Bush administration on Iraq; Kerry essentially does not."
Which Kerry policy on Iraq is the author talking about?
I think we see a lot of undecideds breaking for whoever is winning. Because by now, if you are still undecided, you are not that smart and do not have very deep values.
The MSM is pulling out all the stops. Using forged documents, I fear, was only the beginning.
However, with the CBS fabricated memos scandal, many otherwise uninformed people are waking up to the fact that MSM is corrupt and biased.
My prediction: Kerry will carry two states: Massachusetts and New York.
The rest will go to our President.
How much money are you willing to put on this prediction?
Maybe the UNDECIDEDS are just a bunch of boobs who are afraid to admit to the pollster that they don't know what end is up and will in REALITY STAY HOME
I thought rathergage would also wake people up. But a recent gallup poll found the vast majority of people felt Rather made an honest mistake
Late surge from Dukakis? PUH-LEEZE. Dukakis lost California for crying out loud.
II think this article is cliched. Most of those assumptions were true on 9-10, but its a 9-11 world now. I believe Murphy is the guy who ran McCain's "Straight Talk Express" campaign as well as some others.
What about the Rhode Island numbers makes you so confident? Do you have evidence of serious Bush traction in Hawaii?
Right or wrong, I like the optimism. Kerry is the eternal pessimist.
Exactly right.
By the media...not by the electorate. They've been making up their mind for the last few weeks and they're not breaking Kerry's way.
Do you remember the democrat convention in late July? I was told by liberals on tv that they reason Kerry did NOT get a bounce after his convention was that there were NO undecided voters any more. Voters had already made up their mind and it was going to be a close race from here on out. So when Bush got his huge convention bounce and it look like he's keeping a good chunk of it almost 4 weeks later, now I hear this undecided voter business again.
What will happen AFTER the election?
Bush is going to win this thing, but not without a titanic struggle against out-and-out FRAUD.
Peoples' first inclination is to just forget about it and get busy with the next four years. This was certainly the case in '00 with the vandalism in the Whitehouse.
It is my fervent hope that SOMEONE in the Republican Party will uncover and EXPOSE all the vote fraud that will, inevitably, take place.
I'm all for kicking the Demorat Party while they're down in order to keep them down for the foreseeable future.
These words have proven to be prophetic.
tallhappy, I don't think I want to be putting any money on my prediction just yet.
Staunch Bush-supporters I have spoken to were very, very disappointed in Bush's debate performance.
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