Strategic Vision: Michigan - Kerry 47%, Bush 41%, Nader 1%

Strategic Vision ^ | 09/30/2004 | Strategic Vision

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Below are the results of a three-day poll of likely voters in the critical battleground state of Michigan for the presidential race. Results are based on telephone interviews with 801 likely voters in Michigan, aged 18+, and released as indicated below. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

1. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney or Kerry—Edwards?

	07/19	08/04	08/18	08/31	09/16	09/30	TBA	TBA
Bush-Cheney	45%	42%	42%	42%	41%	42%	0%	0%
Kerry-Edwards	47%	49%	48%	47%	48%	49%	0%	0%
Undecided	8%	9%	10%	11%	11%	9%	0%	0%

2. If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush—Cheney, Kerry—Edwards, or Nader—Camejo?

	07/19	08/04	08/18	08/31	09/16	09/30	TBA	TBA
Bush-Cheney	44%	42%	42%	42%	41%	42%	0%	0%
Kerry-Edwards	46%	47%	46%	45%	47%	48%	0%	0%
Nader-Camejo	1%	2%	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
Undecided	9%	9%	10%	10%	10%	9%	0%	0%

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

This poll seems to contradict other polls we saw from MI recently showing a tighter race. To me, it proves more than anything that Strategic Vision is a non-partisan pollster and not a Republican one like many claim.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Please change title to Kerry 48%, Bush 42%. I used the wrong figures. Thanks.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Poll PING

[The Old Hoosier]

You just never know. Turnout in different states can be very different, and outside firms often get it wrong because they don't understand the state.

Then again, sometimes they nail it dead-on--Gallup had a terrific showing in 2002, for example. This poll is pretty consistent and shows little movement in Mich.

[Josh in PA]

What we need to know about these polls that alot of people don't seem to grasp.

Strategic Vision could question 1000 different people, 8 times (8000 people) over the same 2 or 3 day period and get these results for each individual poll.

Kerry 48-Bush 47 So-So
Kerry 49-Bush 44 Bad for Bush
Kerry 44-Bush 46 Good for Bush
Kerry 45-Bush 48 Good for Bush
Kerry 50-Bush 42 Bad for Bush
Kerry 48-Bush 48 So-So
Kerry 47-Bush 46 So-So
Kerry 44-Bush 45 So-So


Too many people panic or get excited about a single poll. We need to put these into the reality of statistics and sampling.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

I agree. A poll is just a snapshot. It's more important to look at the underlying trend, which has Michigan in a range of about Bush +2 to Kerry +8 or so.

[Dan from Michigan]

Michigan also tightens up on election day. Outside of popular incumbents we rarely have blowouts here.

Terri Land (R) was the only double digit winner last time. 10% Cox won by less than 1%, and Granholm 4%.
Gore won by 5%. Stabmenow 1%

[skaterboy]

Well the trend is only one Bush up and most not very tight so I hope the trend changes

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Michigan is like the cherry on top of the sundae as far as battlegrounds states go. Nice to have, but not totally necessary for a Bush victory in November.

I just hope it stays close so Kerry has to waste time there.

[Dolphy]

The Detroit Free Press' most recent poll has Kerry up 2 among registered voters and Bush up 50 to 48 , among likely voters.

[Merry]

The problem with Michigan is Detroit. There will be lots of dead people voting there. Kerry's new employee, Jesse Jackson, will be campaigning in all the Black Churches to make sure that every Detroit precinct has a 110% turnout. Michigan also has the largest number of Muslims. I have written it off awhile ago. It's not worth spending resources there.

[Ravi]

I think this shows once and for all that SV is not really biased in its polling. This is a fairly straightforward poll and is consistent with their other polls. I'll believe this one as well as the one for Ohio two days ago showing Bush up by 9. Again, the trend is your friend.