Oregon Ping
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Posted on 10/03/2004 7:11:59 AM PDT by NavyCanDo
Mount St. Helens evacuated; substantial eruption "imminent"
COLDWATER RIDGE VISITOR CENTER — A brief steam release yesterday followed by steady tremors deep within Mount St. Helens have led scientists to believe an eruption larger than Friday's 24-minute ash event may happen within days.
In a sharp reversal of earlier predictions, scientists say they now believe the volcano is capable of a substantial explosion that could create an ash cloud rising tens of thousands of feet and a lava flow from new magma entering the volcano.
Northwesterly winds potentially could carry an ash plume to Chehalis and Kelso.
Because of these new developments, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) yesterday raised the volcanic alert to Level 3, indicating an eruption is imminent with a potential for injury to life and property.
In quick response, the U.S. Forest Service, which manages the Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument visitor centers, closed down the Johnston Ridge Observatory five miles north of the crater, evacuating about 2,500 visitors downhill to safer locations.
(Excerpt) Read more at seattletimes.nwsource.com ...
I was in the Navy in the middle of the Atlantic during the May 18th 1980 eruption. Looks like I will finnanly see a little of what I missed.
We are not talking May 18, 1980 here, but a major eruption would coat the NW in Ash, and could cause significant melting of the glacier inside the crater. This melting could cause mudflows around the base of the mountain.
I am sure we had this much warning of the eruption in 1980 but not being from the area I can't remember. Refresh me.
Whatever happens, it's going to be one helluva show.
Oregon Ping
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I have the Volcano cam on. :)
Volcano Cam:
http://www.fs.fed.us/gpnf/volcanocams/msh/
That's the one. :)
Gtreat picture, isn't it?
No picture seen here. (Apparently their server has been Slashdo ... er, Freepdotted).
Mine refreshes every 5 minutes ~ great picture.
If a kiloton type of eruption takes place, John Kerry will then become irrelevant.
The Cascades, and the Olympics, are awesome areas to this old flatlander. When I lived on Vashon Island years ago, you could see Mount Ranier on a good day.
How can anybody know what magnitude this eruption will be? How can we be sure it won't be as big as the 1980 eruption? Nobody knows for sure how big or small it will be. It might even be bigger than the 1980 eruption. Nobody knows until it happens.
I've always heard that a red X is worth 1000 words.......
;-)
As I recall, there was significant swelling prior to the 1980 eruption. I haven't seen reports of that this time, which leads me to think it will be a far less explosive event.
X can be anything. Try refreshing?
Only four of the victims were known to be inside the restricted areas set up by federal and local governments. David Johnston was on duty for the USGS stationed at Coldwater II only 5 miles from the summit. There was the stubborn Harry Truman who refused to leave his lodge at Spirit Lake and was eventually given special permission to stay. And amateur vulcanologists Bob Kaseweter and Beverly Wetherald who had permission to take readings near Spirit Lake at their own risk. The other victims, some as far as 13 miles from the mountain, were in areas considered safe. The thick clouds of ash and raging mudflows caught many people off guard.
But even to this day, controversy bubbles just beneath the surface. It is well known that local government was pressured by logging companies to make the restricted areas smaller than recommended by the USGS. Millions of dollars in revenue were going to be lost if loggers could not get in to retrieve lumber. Even locals living near the mountain balked at the limited access they had to their property. In the weeks before the eruption on May 18th, the mountain had become unusually quiet and many people believed the danger had past. They were tired of the disruption to their lives and wanted the blockades removed. In hindsight, many more people would have survived had the federal and local government heeded the warnings of David Johnston and the other USGS officials and made the restricted zones larger. For some, luck was on their side. Had the mountain erupted only a few hours later, the forests surrounding the area would have been filled with the sounds of chainsaws run by the 330 Weyerhauser employees usually at work near the mountain on weekends.
Unfortunately, we may never know if there were other victims who chose the wrong day to stray too close to the mountain and were never counted as victims. At least one survivor who had been camped just outside the restricted area told rescuers that he had seen people on the ridge below, inside the restricted area, just before the eruption. Who were these people? Did anyone even know they were there?
In the book Mount St Helens: The Eruption and Recovery of a Volcano by Rob Carson, Skamania County Sheriff William Closner states, "People went over, under, through, and around every time we tried to restrict access to what we believed were dangerous areas. There were even maps sold showing how to get around our blockades on the mountain." Because of the severity of the devastation near the mountain it may never be known if 57 is the final tally.
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