Posted on 10/07/2004 10:27:10 PM PDT by ambrose
News from the [url=http://www.electoral-vote.com/]Votemaster[/url]
There was a problem with the projected map. It is being worked on. Also, the new Zogby polls came out after today's update. They will be in tomorrow's update.
More results on the vice-presidential debate from Survey USA. In 8 states, Cheney won; in 5 states, Edwards won. California was a tie. In cities, Cheney did better. He won 17 of the cities polled vs. only 4 for Edwards. These results are clearly different from the instapolls available right after the debate.
Kerry's post-debate surge is continuing, with him taking the lead in Pennsylvania according to polls from West Chester University, Survey USA, and Franklin and Marshall college. Neither candidate now has the 270 electoral votes needed to win, and many of the states are statistical ties. Michigan and New Hampshire are exact ties. If Kerry wins Michigan and Bush wins New Hampshire, then Kerry wins the election 270-268.
Gallup ran a poll on whether U.S. involvement in Iraq was a mistake. The country is evenly divided on this issue, with 51% saying it was not a mistake and 48% saying it was a mistake.
Spoiler news: No, not Ralph. There is a secret spoiler lurking out there that only political junkies have ever heard of: Michael Badnarik of the Libertarian Party. He is on the ballot in 48 states, vs. about 35 for Nader. Some polls show him pulling in 1% to 3% of the vote. To a much greater extent than Nader, Badnarik is an equal-opportunity spoiler--he pulls at least at much support from Bush as he does from Kerry. His message is balanced budgets, low taxes, and minimal government. Minimal government means turning many government functions, from welfare to social security to national parks over to the private sector. Voters who support a balanced budget, free trade, and abortion on demand, and who oppose high taxes, gun control and laws telling consenting adults what they can do in private but can't stomach voting for a Democrat may go for Badnarik. The pollsters don't seem to know about Badnarik and rarely include him in the polls. If you want to see the polls include him you might suggest it to the pollsters.
Projected Senate: 49 Democrats, 50 Republicans, 1 independent
That is a worthless website. The sitemaster uses Internet polls to show Kerry ahead. C'mon.
"Once this election is over and George W. Bush is sworn in for another 4 years... John Kerry's career is done, he will be reduced to groveling for his allowance from TaRaZa"
I very seldom wish ill on anyone but I will make an exception for John Kerry, I would like to see him get what he truly deserves and that is probably the worst thing I could say about him. I leave it to the imagination as to what that might be.
"O'Reilly is dumber than a bag of hammers."
Are you speaking ill of hammers? I think there is a lot to be said for a good hammer!
A sack of hammers could also be reasonally expected to hit the nail on the head once in a great while...
reasonally = reasonably
If he comes out meekly again, he may wind up losing this thing.
Meek and competent is sufficient. He need not win. He need only appear relaxed and competent. The talk will be of his improvement and people who leaned Bush will again be comfortable with that.
Frankly, if he manages that, I expect him to cancel the third debate. We're likely to hear some domestic stuff tonight and after that he can say it has been covered. It will work and since he will have already debated and not fled them all, it wont' hurt him.
-Snip-
Annenberg Public Policy Center 1
Kerry Gained Favorability after Debate but Bush Is Still
Preferred As Commander-In-Chief, Annenberg Data Show
John Kerry goes into Friday’s second presidential debate with more Americans having a favorable opinion of him now than did before his first debate with George W. Bush. But
the public still clearly regards Bush as someone they would trust more as commander-in chief of the military and to lead the war on terrorism, the University of Pennsylvania’s
National Annenberg Election Survey shows.
Polling of 1,868 registered voters between October 1 and 6 showed that 44 percent had a favorable opinion of Kerry while 40 percent had an unfavorable view. The margin of
sampling error was plus or minus two percentage points. In polling from September 21 through 26, 41 percent viewed Kerry favorably and 42 percent unfavorably. But Bush retained a stronger balance of public sentiment. In the September polling, 50 percent viewed him favorably and 41 percent unfavorably. Now 51 percent view him
favorably and 39 percent unfavorably.
But fewer respondents have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kerry than of Bush. That suggests that the next two debates leave Kerry with more of an opportunity
than Bush has to get people to make up their minds about him, favorably or unfavorably. When asked to compare Bush and Kerry directly, Bush retained big leads on two major
strains of the campaign, and stayed about even on a third.
Respondents were asked whom they would trust more as commander-in-chief. In the latest polling, which began on September 30, the night after the first debate, 52 percent
preferred Bush while 40 percent chose Kerry. The difference between that finding and Bush’s September advantage of 50 to 41 percent was not statistically significant.
Asked whom they would trust more to handle the war on terrorism, in the latest polling 52 percent chose Bush and 38 percent chose Kerry. Those were exactly the same
percentages that were recorded in September. But there was an interesting internal shift; in September, 30 percent of independents preferred Kerry, and in the latest polling it was 39 percent. The percentage of independents preferring Bush went from 56 to 51. When asked whom they would trust more to handle the economy – an issue that came up
only peripherally in the first debate which focused on Iraq and terrorism – about the same number picked each candidate. Forty-six percent chose Kerry and 44 percent chose Bush,
but the difference was not statistically significant.
In September Kerry held an equally insignificant 46 to 45 percent advantage on what his campaign has long expected to be a major asset. He did gain among independents; in September they divided 44 to 41 percent for Bush; in October it was 49 to 38 percent for Kerry. Kerry did make one other significant gain on an issue, as 35 percent now say he has a
plan for “bringing the situation in Iraq to a successful conclusion.” But 55 percent said he did not have a plan. In September 27 percent said he did and 61 percent said he did not. Bush has a somewhat better balance on the question. Forty percent say he has a plan, while 53 percent say he does not. In September, 39 percent said Bush had a plan and 53 percent said he did not.
Another important overall change was that 67 percent of registered voters now say that the United States should keep troops in Iraq until a stable government is established
there, while 28 percent say the troops should come home as soon as possible. In the Sept. 21-26 polling, 58 percent favored keeping the troops there until stability was
achieved while 38 percent wanted them brought home as soon as possible.
The percentage of people who thought the United States was regarded worse in the world since Bush became president declined from 56 to 50 percent. The percentage who
thought foreign opinion had improved went from 17 to 16 percent.
Bush has argued that the war in Iraq has made the United States safer, while Kerry has said it made this country less safe. The balance of public opinion is still on Kerry’s side, with 51 percent saying the war in Iraq has “increased the risk of terrorism against the United States. Thirty-six percent say that risk has been reduced by the war. But the
margin has narrowed; from September 21 through 26, 56 percent said the risk had increased and 32 percent said it had decreased.
-end snip-
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