AP/Ipsos Poll Released

Polipundit.com ^ | 10/8/04 | DJ Drummond

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AP/Ipsos Poll Released

The Ipsos site finally produced that October 6 poll.

I see problems with their conclusions, but want to look deeper.

I do think it’s very interesting, to see that this poll claims that 6% of Republicans would vote for Kerry (2% above average from other polls), but only 4% of Democrats would vote for Bush (6% below average from other polls). This poll claims Bush gets only 28% of the Independent vote (versus 44% in the average from other polls), while Kerry claims 56% of Independents (versus 45% in the average from other polls).

I also note, that AP/Ipsos did not provide these demographic results in their previous polls, so it is impossible to track their trends in these areas.

It is also worth noting, that on the last page of the Demographic sample, Ipsos reveals that when only “Strong” support of Likely Voters is counted, Bush leads Kerry 38% to 35%, and 37% to 34% among Registered Voters with “Strong” Support.

Ipsos also claims that Kerry leads Bush 53% to 41% with Catholics, which is counter to every other major poll citing this demographic.

More on this after I work through the numbers.

Posted by DJ Drummond at 1:24 pm Link to this post | Comments

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As suspected, the AP poll is C R A P.

[tobyhill]

"Ipsos-Public Affairs conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of U.S. and international organizations. Typically, the division's studies are based on opinion research, not only public opinion, but often elite stakeholder, corporate and media opinion."

It appears the AP is using a slanted polling company set on making the President look bad.

[kaktuskid]

Isn't Ipsos a FRENCH company?

[BookaT]

You mean the crAP Poll?

crAP News

[The South Texan]

AP= Pravda and TASS for the Democrat party

[KellyAdmirer]

There are many Southern Democrats who will vote for Bush. Claiming that only 4% of Democrats will back the President is nonsensical.

[tobyhill]

I'm not sure but they use a standard of Random Dialing using random area codes. A majority of area codes are in places like NY and LA. AP has been playing this game for a while and just won't quit till after the election. Based on the electoral college this maybe another year where popular vote is irrelevant.

[aft_lizard]

This just in on a recent household survey(mine)
100% believe the current polling data is corrupted or crap
but the internals show a different story

50% of respondents are only strongly in favor of believing that while 48% are catholics who attend breakfast at dennys instead of mass

[DarthVader]

This poll is nothing but a hunk of head cheese.

[Warlord]

"Isn't Ipsos a FRENCH company?"

Yes, Ipsos is a French company that recently partnered with AP. Most of IPSOS' experience is in strategic marketing research, not in political polling. Ipsos established its U.S. presence by acquiring several U.S. marketing research firms within the last five years. The firm's marketing projects a fashionable Euro progressivism and an openness to advocacy research. Overall, its findings should be interpreted with care.

http://www.ipsos.com/who/headoffice.aspx
http://www.ipsos.com/news/CorporateNews.aspx

[TitansAFC]

This just in.....

AP/French poll shows Kerry ahead 53-46, Democrats likely to net +4 Senate seats on November 2nd.

---Next week's AP headline.........LOL

[Verginius Rufus]

If it's French, I'd say it's ipsos facto untrustworthy.

[mabelkitty]

You are right.
There are far more Democrats voting for W than 4%.
There are more than 4% of Democrats who support the terrorism efforts in Iraq, so that, alone (aside from the social issues of gay marriage and abortion) would be an uptick to about 10% (conservatively speaking).

[tobyhill]

I didn't know it was a French Company. I love the new way of saying Liberal Idiot,"progressivism".

[NeonKnight]

Interviewer: If the election were held today, who would you vote for in The Presidential election.

The esteemed Senator, John Forbes Kerry - Bush - Nader

Interviewie: Bush

Interviewer: You didn't sound real sure of your answer, and I can understand your reservations. Perhaps you would feel more comfortable if I placed you in the undecided column?

Interviewie: Thats OK, I have already decided to vote for Bush.

Interviewer: You Neoncons are some of the wort pig-heads I have to interview. I am not going to bother with the rest of questions, I already know what you will say...Goodbye.