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Population Boom or Bust? U.N. Numbers Cruncher on the Overpopulation Myth
Catholic Net ^ | October 11, 2004 | Tim Drake

Posted on 10/13/2004, 3:34:06 PM by NYer

The population of the world is increasing so fast that if something isn’t done about it, scarce resources will threaten lives.

Isn’t it?

No, says Dr. Joseph Chamie, director of the United Nations’ Population Division. The Population Division is separate from the U.N.’s Population Fund, which has drawn criticism from watchdog Earthgroups that question its “ideological” use of data.

Chamie has worked with demographic numbers for 28 years. Prior to his work at the United Nations, Chamie and his wife served in the Peace Corps in India. He spoke with Register staff writer Tim Drake from his office in New York.

For the past 20 years, all we’ve heard about is the coming population explosion. Your recent data suggesting low birth rate and fertility decline seems to fly in the face of all the previous media coverage. What’s going on?

I’m fortunate to be a demographer at this point in history. It’s like being a sailor in the 15th century, traveling with Columbus. It’s the most exciting period in demographic history.

The period of rapid population growth is not over. The second half of the 20th century was record-breaking with how many people we added. On the average, we’re adding about 77 million people every year. Ninety-nine percent of that is occurring in the developing world. Twenty-one percent of that is occurring in India.

In ancient times, we had high births and high deaths. Religious leaders said, “Go forth and multiply.” There were no antibiotics. Life was harsh, and people died. In order for your family and community to survive, you had to have lots of births. We were able to make great scientific achievements in bringing down mortality. After World War II, that spread to the developing world. Life expectancy at the beginning of the century was around 30. By the end, it was at 65. I consider that humanity’s greatest achievement. You can see your wife survive childbearing, and see your grandparents and great grandparents in old age. Low mortality is agreed to by every country and culture. It’s a precondition for development.

The gap between births and deaths is now closing. It’s a part of modern life. We now have low deaths and low birth rates. We’re now moving to more countries having low fertility.

In fact, isn’t there a new problem — fertility rates that are too low?

One in three countries has fertility below replacement levels. This is increasingly a concern in countries like Italy, Korea and Japan. If you have no immigrants, you will get smaller and older quickly. Neither rapid population growth nor rapid population decline are sustainable for any length of time.

Which countries face the biggest crisis?

We estimate that by mid-century, there will be 43 countries that will be smaller than they are today, some substantially. The Baltic countries could have a decrease of 30% or more. Italy will have 20% less. Hungary will decrease by 25%. Japan is likely to have a 14% decline. In Switzerland, it will be 20%. In Cuba, 10%. In Germany, 5%.

Why is this troubling?

The population aging and decrease is the result of voluntary choices made by millions and millions of couples. This is the first time in modern history that we’ve had this, so it’s uncharted waters.

Can immigration make up for the loss?

Immigration can make a big difference in labor force, but it cannot solve the aging problem. If fertility is low and you bring in immigrants, it changes the composition of the receiving country. The U.S., Canada and Australia have a history of dealing with this. Japan, Italy and Korea have not had that experience.

If Italy would like to keep its population constant, it would need to bring in 250,000 people every year for the next 50 years. If it would like to keep its labor force constant, it would have to bring in 372,000 annually. If it wants to keep the ratio between the working-age population and those over 65 constant, it would have to bring in 2.3 million every year. If we wanted to keep the ratio between working age and those over 65 constant in the U.S., we would have to bring in 12 million each year. That’s really not feasible.

Are you a lone voice at the U.N.?

In the early 1950s, population was considered a subject outside the realm of U.N. debate. They felt it should be discussed not in the general assembly, but in the general bedroom. This changed in the 1960s. In our office, we study the entire world. That means those countries that are growing, as well as those that are declining. Some interpret that as political, and the message often gets politicized. They think that I am taking sides. I’m trying to present a comprehensive picture.

What does the future hold in terms of worldwide population?

The future is uncertain. We have a certain range where we expect population to be in the future. Things cannot remain as they are today indefinitely, because some countries would become unreasonably large and some would become unreasonably small. These rates have to come back into balance and harmony.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Philosophy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: population; unitednations
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1 posted on 10/13/2004, 3:34:06 PM by NYer
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To: american colleen; sinkspur; Lady In Blue; Salvation; narses; SMEDLEYBUTLER; redhead; ...
Catholic Ping - let me know if you want on/off this list


2 posted on 10/13/2004, 3:35:05 PM by NYer (Where Peter is, there is the Church.)
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To: cpforlife.org; Coleus; Mr. Silverback

Ping!


3 posted on 10/13/2004, 3:35:28 PM by NYer (Where Peter is, there is the Church.)
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To: NYer

It’s the most exciting period in demographic history


must have been a tight race. :)


4 posted on 10/13/2004, 3:39:00 PM by escapefromboston (green lantern returns!)
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To: NYer
1995-2050


5 posted on 10/13/2004, 3:39:42 PM by Dallas59 (I'm a "Scumbag" who has been "Intimidating" the Press since 2003!)
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To: NYer

Sorry. I don't believe ANYTHING that comes out of the UN.


6 posted on 10/13/2004, 4:04:27 PM by DustyMoment (Repeal CFR NOW!!)
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Comment #7 Removed by Moderator

To: NYer

Ping for later.


8 posted on 10/13/2004, 4:10:12 PM by redgolum (Molon labe)
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To: NYer

lunchtime bump for later read

New Anti-Dem Portal...

SEE ---> http://www.noDNC.com/


9 posted on 10/13/2004, 4:13:50 PM by woodb01 (Take out the 'dnC'BS "news" trash... SEE ---> http://www.noDNC.com)
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To: NYer
Immigration can make a big difference in labor force, but it cannot solve the aging problem. . . If we wanted to keep the ratio between working age and those over 65 constant in the U.S., we would have to bring in 12 million each year. That’s really not feasible.
10 posted on 10/13/2004, 4:27:14 PM by jordan8
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To: DustyMoment
The future is uncertain.

That's the only statement I find believable.

11 posted on 10/13/2004, 4:33:36 PM by IndyTiger
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To: NYer
The future is uncertain.

I predict that we're all going to die. Women and minorities hardest hit.

12 posted on 10/13/2004, 4:42:28 PM by Tax-chick (If you stand very still, they may think you're a tree.)
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To: NYer

In 100 years, the phrase "increase and multiply" will no longer by derided by the secular masses. Even they will want population growth to return.


13 posted on 10/13/2004, 5:06:31 PM by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Right makes right!)
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To: NYer
The period of rapid population growth is not over. The second half of the 20th century was record-breaking with how many people we added. On the average, we’re adding about 77 million people every year. Ninety-nine percent of that is occurring in the developing world. Twenty-one percent of that is occurring in India.

The population growth ahead will be in the Islamic world, among others. Already they outnumber the U.S. more than 4-to-1. If each one of them can take out one or more of us, at worst they will have 3/4ths of their population left after we are exterminated. Plus, their numbers will double by 2050, while ours are barely maintained.

UNLESS we have immigration from friendly cultures. We are fortunate to have friendly immigration from Christian cultures. That is largely why President Bush's proposals for handling Mexican immigration make good sense to me.

14 posted on 10/13/2004, 5:09:26 PM by n-tres-ted (Remember November!)
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To: NYer
I'pve seen a lot of research about demographic trends, and one thing I think has become quite clear: Prosperity is the key to reducing population growth. Everywhere you look in the world, where there is relative prosperity population growth has slowed dramatically or reversed. This is something that should have been seen coming but wasn't by most in the field.
15 posted on 10/13/2004, 6:04:54 PM by zeugma (Come to the Dark Side...... We have cookies!)
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To: n-tres-ted
at worst they will have 3/4ths of their population left after we are exterminated

If you're talking about a war of extirmination, they don't have a chance...and won't have for the forseeable future.

16 posted on 10/13/2004, 6:44:40 PM by liberallarry
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To: n-tres-ted

if it comes to so naked a war as you describe, we will use weapons which cause megadeaths of their numbers with no loss of life for us.

If you really think flooding the US with non-assimilating immigrants from ANY other culture is a good idea, I suggest you look at the laeti policies of the late Roman Empire and see how well that worked out for them.


17 posted on 10/13/2004, 7:15:05 PM by King Prout (yo! sKerry: "Live by the flip, die by the flop." - Frank_Discussion)
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To: King Prout

Megabombs are not useful when the enemy does not fight with traditional forces, and the Islamists do not. We need to maintain our numbers, and we have immigrants presently working in our economy and fighting in our Armed Services and performing well doing it. The Roman Empire didn't face demographics as we do, nor did they face the potential use of WMD through stealth against civilian targets.


18 posted on 10/13/2004, 7:45:48 PM by n-tres-ted (Remember November!)
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To: n-tres-ted

you forget: you postulated a war of anihilation through attrition.

In any such conflict:

nukes would level the Middle East and, if push came to shove, the Indonesian and Malaysian portions of the Ummah.

machine-guns would mop up the domestic mess.

Believe it.

"asymmetric fighting" and "non-traditional forces" be damned.


19 posted on 10/13/2004, 11:30:47 PM by King Prout (yo! sKerry: "Live by the flip, die by the flop." - Frank_Discussion)
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To: n-tres-ted

btw: proportionally, the laeti tribes and invading goths, avars, huns, etc... were directly analogous to our friends from the south today.

The results are, so far, paralell.


20 posted on 10/13/2004, 11:32:41 PM by King Prout (yo! sKerry: "Live by the flip, die by the flop." - Frank_Discussion)
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