Security Breach in Iraq's Green Zone: Trend or One-Time Lapse?

STRATFOR ^ | October 14, 2004

[Axion]

Summary

The U.S. military says the two deadly bombs that exploded within Baghdad's Green Zone on Oct. 14 likely were smuggled into the sprawling compound. If this is true, security has been breached within the previously impermeable zone -- raising the specter of additional violence within it.

Analysis

Two bomb blasts inside Baghdad's protected Green Zone on Oct. 14 killed three U.S. civilians and two Iraqis, and injured 13. After first reporting the explosions as caused by mortar rounds, the U.S. military acknowledged that homemade bombs -- apparently smuggled into the compound -- caused the mayhem. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Jamaat al-Tawhid and Jihad (Monotheism and Jihad) claimed responsibility for the attack.

The explosions came just weeks after an explosive device was disarmed within the Green Zone and nearly a month to the day after the U.S. military warned that the security situation in the zone was deteriorating. These events suggest the military has gone lax in enforcing security in the compound, which could prove even more dangerous, considering the continual fighting in Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq and the fact that Ramadan is expected to begin at sundown Oct. 14.

The four-square-mile complex -- headquarters of the U.S. military and the Interim Iraqi Government, the U.S. and British embassies' staff, hundreds of civilian contractors and support workers -- sits in central Baghdad within and surrounding Saddam Hussein's presidential palace and offices. More than 10,000 people are estimated to live and work within the Green Zone, which is enclosed by concrete walls, coils of razor wire, chain-link fences -- and heavily armed checkpoints.

Despite these security measures, however, the bombing suggests either the insurgency is growing much more capable, or the U.S. military -- which has been turning over more and more security responsibility to Iraqi forces -- is failing to do an adequate job of protecting its own assets. Based on information from U.S. military sources that have lived and worked in the compound, Stratfor is more inclined to believe the latter. We do not, however, expect to see Iraqi guerrillas storming the compound any time soon.

That said, there is an inherent difficulty in defending a sprawling facility in the middle of a hostile city, especially when assets must be managed to protect scores of other bases spread far and wide. The current defense situation appears similar to the isolated defense of outposts by European invaders during the Crusades.

According to sources within the military, two of the difficulties facing the U.S. military are a lack of defensive depth -- concentric defensive rings -- at their facilities and the inability to protect lines of communication between bases.

Lack of defensive depth is not a serious problem when the threat is primarily from a small group. It is more of a concern when the possibility of a direct assault is raised. The inability to completely secure lines of communication between facilities has been a concern for the U.S. military since the insurgency began and is not likely to be resolved soon. As a result, the military has simply attempted to adapt.

The Green Zone security breach, however, does not fall neatly into either category.

In order to smuggle explosives into the compound, the perpetrators would have had to get them past manned checkpoints -- meaning that security at these points was ineffectual. Now that the weakness has been identified -- and exploited by insurgents -- military commanders are likely to address it. Security checks at the gates to the Green Zone will be beefed up. We expect Iraqi security guards likely will be used even more by U.S. soldiers, and traffic into and out of the facility will be limited as much as possible.

This, however, will create another problem. By stepping up screening procedures at the entrances and exits to the compound, both pedestrian and vehicular traffic will back up outside of the facility -- creating an incredibly vulnerable soft target for both Islamist and nationalist insurgents seeking to target Iraqi collaborators, especially during the month of Ramadan.

On Oct. 14, a handbill was found in the Baghdad suburb of Abu Ghraib warning Iraqis of dire consequences during the month of Ramadan should they cooperate with the government. To further fuel fears, car bombers, drive-by shooters and other attackers have repeatedly targeted the entrances to the Green Zone over the 18 months of coalition occupation, setting a precedent of violence against the compound.

Stratfor fully expects Green Zone security to be retightened as a result of the Oct. 14 bombing, but there is no way of knowing when the explosives were brought in -- or whether more bombs also made their way into the compound. Furthermore, individual bomb-making components can be smuggled into the zone one piece at a time, making security checks all the more necessary -- and difficult.

With these security issues now part of the mix, further attacks become all the more possible.

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