[Plutarch]

Assuming Florida and Wisconsin are in the bag, Bush has a solid 264 EV's. He needs one of the following to get over the top:

Ohio
Iowa
New Mexico (+ one electoral vote from Maine)
New Hampshire (+ one EV from Maine) to tie.

Other outlier states have occasional polls showing inexplicable Bush competitiveness. Earlier today a New Jersey poll, and now Oregon.

If these are possibilities the likelihood of a Bush victory is that much higher, as there are more ways to win.

[B Knotts]

Oregon was right in there with Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin in 2000. It is not a New Jersey-type state.

Gore won Oregon by 6,735 votes in 2000 (from memory...could be off by a few).

[Lunatic Fringe]

I agree. The mathematical advantage for Bush may be too much for Kerry to overcome.