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Bush Up By 5 in Oregon (Bush 48-Kerry 43???)
Real Clear Politics ^

Posted on 10/15/2004 1:43:52 PM PDT by Lunatic Fringe

Edited on 10/15/2004 1:53:42 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

Report in PDF format

Some other items:

Wu 58%, Ameri 36%

Measure 34 (Tillamook Forest lockup): Yes 39%, No 27%

Measure 36 (Preserve Traditional Marriage): Yes 57%, No 36%


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Oregon
KEYWORDS: battleground; kewl; polls; purplestates
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To: TheBigB

Bingo. Thanks.


41 posted on 10/15/2004 1:52:34 PM PDT by billhilly (If you're lurking here from DU (Democrats unglued), I trust this post will make you sick)
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To: VOA

Lighten up! We're firmly attached, not like KA with their Velcro holding them on at Nevada........


42 posted on 10/15/2004 1:52:47 PM PDT by OregonRancher (illigitimus non carborundum)
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To: Lunatic Fringe

please ...please ...please let this poll be true

Wohoooo


43 posted on 10/15/2004 1:52:52 PM PDT by Mo1 (Terri Kerry's remedy for arthritis - soak white raisins in gin for 2 weeks)
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To: Lunatic Fringe

I checked Real Clear Politics this afternoon, specifically looking at Battleground States.

The picture I got, from looking at the poll dates, is that generally any poll that included results after the third debates shows Bush on the upswing.

Not that he's ahead in the poll, but he's definitely up a point or two if the results include the time frame after the debate.


44 posted on 10/15/2004 1:53:17 PM PDT by dawn53
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To: Lunatic Fringe

Do you think the Rats are trying to get their guys to campaign hard this final stretch? Plus maybe discourage conservative voters from voting since they think the election will be in the bag?


45 posted on 10/15/2004 1:53:30 PM PDT by Sprite518
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To: Question Liberal Authority

If only we could go up 15-20 points and I could start growing my fingernails back and sell my shares in Mylanta.


46 posted on 10/15/2004 1:53:42 PM PDT by johnb838 (MSPO: Main Stream Propaganda Organ)
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To: Lunatic Fringe
Here is the post I was composing while this was posted (now pulled):

Report in PDF format

Some other items:

Wu 58%, Ameri 36%

Measure 34 (Tillamook Forest lockup): Yes 39%, No 27%

Measure 36 (Preserve Traditional Marriage): Yes 57%, No 36%

47 posted on 10/15/2004 1:53:52 PM PDT by B Knotts ("John Kerry, who says he doesn't like outsourcing, wants to outsource our national security.")
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To: Lunatic Fringe

I doubt this. Looking at the past polls, Riley has been more of an outlier showing Bush ahead while Kerry was way ahead it all the other polls. Would be nice to get Oregon though.


48 posted on 10/15/2004 1:53:55 PM PDT by dfdemar
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To: Inspectorette

Give or take a few states, yes.


49 posted on 10/15/2004 1:53:56 PM PDT by billhilly (If you're lurking here from DU (Democrats unglued), I trust this post will make you sick)
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To: Lunatic Fringe

Little reporting on it...
but Bush has been ahead here by a slim margin since the convention... and now it is going beyond the margin of error.

keep kerry off of bridges.


50 posted on 10/15/2004 1:54:04 PM PDT by Robert_Paulson2 (the madridification of our election is now officially underway.)
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To: traderrob6
Like I said in my other post, I would love to see Bush take the state. The RCP is the average and average is probably the most reasonably way to trying to weight what the sentiments might be.

Look, I'm not looking for a statistics debate. I'm just saying that we need to fight like hell in the ground game (i.e., voter turnout) and hope that we kick the lefty's asses all over the place, including Oregon.

51 posted on 10/15/2004 1:54:36 PM PDT by mattdono ("Crush the democrats, drive them before you, and hear the lamentations of the scumbags" -Big Arnie)
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To: ken5050

She's not. Nethercutt is great, but the state is just too liberal. He's got 20/1 shot at best at this point.


52 posted on 10/15/2004 1:54:47 PM PDT by zbigreddogz
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To: Integrityrocks

I watched a C-SPAN Catholic University group of "undecided" students discussing the debates. The last debate convinced 5 people to go toward Bush and 1 to go to Kerry. Being that the Catholic vote is split right now (why..I don't know) that means that more undecideds are moving toward the Bush column. 5 - 1 is a LOT.


53 posted on 10/15/2004 1:54:49 PM PDT by Integrityrocks
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To: Dales; Coop; ambrose

Holy crapola! This Riley poll probably overstates Bush's standing in Oregon, but it is probably closer to the truth than the SUSA poll putting Kerry up 9%. I would guess that Kerry is up by no more than 2% in OR about now.


54 posted on 10/15/2004 1:55:04 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
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To: Sprite518

Consevatives are looking to strike back at the MSM and Kerry. Bush could be up by 50% and I would still wait in line to vote for Bush.


55 posted on 10/15/2004 1:55:05 PM PDT by conservativepoet
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To: rwfromkansas

I dont think its hard to beleive at all... Today, October 15, 2004, the vote is trending almost EXACTLY as it did 4 years ago... Except that Bush has stronger leads in Florida and is up in some states he didnt carry (wisconsin) and is tied in some states he got creamed in (Iowa, NJ, Mich, MN)

Gore won Oregon by a few hundred votes... If you apply the trend in the rest of the country to the west coast BUSH SHOULD have a slight lead in Oregon...


56 posted on 10/15/2004 1:55:34 PM PDT by The Hollywood Conservative
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To: man from mars; Matthew Paul

The Poles are coming out? Are they gay?


57 posted on 10/15/2004 1:55:50 PM PDT by johnb838 (MSPO: Main Stream Propaganda Organ)
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To: Clump
the data from the last 24 hours shows a monumental collapse for the sKerry campaign.

Has there been something other than the Zogby tracking poll?
58 posted on 10/15/2004 1:55:50 PM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: Lunatic Fringe
Assuming Florida and Wisconsin are in the bag, Bush has a solid 264 EV's. He needs one of the following to get over the top:

Ohio
Iowa
New Mexico (+ one electoral vote from Maine)
New Hampshire (+ one EV from Maine) to tie.

Other outlier states have occasional polls showing inexplicable Bush competitiveness. Earlier today a New Jersey poll, and now Oregon.

If these are possibilities the likelihood of a Bush victory is that much higher, as there are more ways to win.

59 posted on 10/15/2004 1:55:53 PM PDT by Plutarch
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To: dfdemar
He's probably tied, or up by a couple in Oregon right now. But, we're moving in the right direction.

Measure 36 will help GOP turnout statewide, and Measure 26-64 will help GOP turnout in Multnomah county.

60 posted on 10/15/2004 1:56:00 PM PDT by B Knotts ("John Kerry, who says he doesn't like outsourcing, wants to outsource our national security.")
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