Posted on 10/15/2004 1:43:52 PM PDT by Lunatic Fringe
Edited on 10/15/2004 1:53:42 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Bingo. Thanks.
Lighten up! We're firmly attached, not like KA with their Velcro holding them on at Nevada........
please ...please ...please let this poll be true
Wohoooo
I checked Real Clear Politics this afternoon, specifically looking at Battleground States.
The picture I got, from looking at the poll dates, is that generally any poll that included results after the third debates shows Bush on the upswing.
Not that he's ahead in the poll, but he's definitely up a point or two if the results include the time frame after the debate.
Do you think the Rats are trying to get their guys to campaign hard this final stretch? Plus maybe discourage conservative voters from voting since they think the election will be in the bag?
If only we could go up 15-20 points and I could start growing my fingernails back and sell my shares in Mylanta.
Some other items:
Wu 58%, Ameri 36%
Measure 34 (Tillamook Forest lockup): Yes 39%, No 27%
Measure 36 (Preserve Traditional Marriage): Yes 57%, No 36%
I doubt this. Looking at the past polls, Riley has been more of an outlier showing Bush ahead while Kerry was way ahead it all the other polls. Would be nice to get Oregon though.
Give or take a few states, yes.
Little reporting on it...
but Bush has been ahead here by a slim margin since the convention... and now it is going beyond the margin of error.
keep kerry off of bridges.
Look, I'm not looking for a statistics debate. I'm just saying that we need to fight like hell in the ground game (i.e., voter turnout) and hope that we kick the lefty's asses all over the place, including Oregon.
She's not. Nethercutt is great, but the state is just too liberal. He's got 20/1 shot at best at this point.
I watched a C-SPAN Catholic University group of "undecided" students discussing the debates. The last debate convinced 5 people to go toward Bush and 1 to go to Kerry. Being that the Catholic vote is split right now (why..I don't know) that means that more undecideds are moving toward the Bush column. 5 - 1 is a LOT.
Holy crapola! This Riley poll probably overstates Bush's standing in Oregon, but it is probably closer to the truth than the SUSA poll putting Kerry up 9%. I would guess that Kerry is up by no more than 2% in OR about now.
Consevatives are looking to strike back at the MSM and Kerry. Bush could be up by 50% and I would still wait in line to vote for Bush.
I dont think its hard to beleive at all... Today, October 15, 2004, the vote is trending almost EXACTLY as it did 4 years ago... Except that Bush has stronger leads in Florida and is up in some states he didnt carry (wisconsin) and is tied in some states he got creamed in (Iowa, NJ, Mich, MN)
Gore won Oregon by a few hundred votes... If you apply the trend in the rest of the country to the west coast BUSH SHOULD have a slight lead in Oregon...
The Poles are coming out? Are they gay?
Ohio
Iowa
New Mexico (+ one electoral vote from Maine)
New Hampshire (+ one EV from Maine) to tie.
Other outlier states have occasional polls showing inexplicable Bush competitiveness. Earlier today a New Jersey poll, and now Oregon.
If these are possibilities the likelihood of a Bush victory is that much higher, as there are more ways to win.
Measure 36 will help GOP turnout statewide, and Measure 26-64 will help GOP turnout in Multnomah county.
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