Bush Up By 5 in Oregon (Bush 48-Kerry 43???)

Real Clear Politics ^

[bray]

He will win Oregon big!! Remember, 3 weeks before 2000, McAwful was guaranteeing Jeb was losing FL and then he went on to win by 15%.

Pray for W and Our Troops

[RWR8189]

ARG is skewed, but Survey USA has generally been a pretty good pollster.

[billhilly]

Oregon is not too steady as a political state. A few years back an unknown (then) defeated the congressman who was Speaker of the House. For the life of me I can't remember his name (Big head, white hair).

[JLS]

This could be really big. If I understand right, all voting in Oregon is absentee. Thus the voting is going on right now?

[spodefly]

No believing this one ...

[Julie(LCR)]

RILEY RESEARCH ASSOCIATES based in Portland, Oregon

They say Bush +5 and I like it!

[hershey]

Looks like GW won the last two debates, despite what Kerry and the MSM would like you to believe.

[mattdono]

I think you may be right (about being a bit unbelievable). The polls seem to mostly favoring Kerry. (Hey, not that I wouldn't love to think that Bush is going to take the state, but Portland is the den of inequity in so many ways that the hippie slime will skew the good folks around the rest of the state....DISCLOSURE: My brother lives just outside of Portland and I like the area, but the hippy maggots in Portland are there...sorry).

Presidential Race
2004 Elecotral Votes: 7| 2000 Results: Bush 46.5, Gore 47.0, Nader 5.0 (Gore +0.5)
Poll | Date	Sample	MoE	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Spread
RCP Average | 10/9-10/13	-	-	45.3	48.3	1.5	Kerry +3.0
Riley Research | 10/9-10/13	400 LV	4.9	48	43	1	Bush +5
ARG | 10/10-10/12	600 LV	4.0	44	49	2	Kerry +5
SurveyUSA | 10/9-10/11	628 LV	4.0	44	53	-	Kerry +9
KATU-TV | 9/24-27	624 RV	4.0	45	47	-	Kerry +2
Research 2000 | 9/20-23	600 LV	4.0	43	50	-	Kerry +7
SUSA | 9/19-9/21	747 LV	3.7	48	47	-	Bush +1
Mason-Dixon | 9/14-9/16	625 LV	4.0	47	43	1	Bush +4
Research 2000 | 9/13-9/16	600 LV	4.0	44	51	-	Kerry +7
ARG | 9/10 -9/13	600 LV	4.0	45	47	2	Kerry +2
Zogby | 9/2	430 LV	4.8	43	53	-	Kerry +10
Riley Research | 8/26-9/1	507 LV	4.4	46	45	1	Bush +1
Zogby/WSJ** | 8/16-8/21	708 LV	3.7	42.6	53.9	1.5	Kerry +11.3
Rasmussen | 7/1-7/31	LV	5.0	41	47	-	Kerry +6
Zogby/WSJ** | 7/26-7/30	644 LV	3.9	45.9	49.9	2.0	Kerry +4.0
Zogby/WSJ** | 7/19-7/23	n/a	3.9	42.8	52.0	1.1	Kerry +9.2
ARG | 7/19-7/22	600 LV	4.0	42	50	4	Kerry +8
Zogby/WSJ** | 7/6-7/10	n/a	4.1	42.4	51.6	2.3	Kerry +9.2
Rasmussen | 6/1-6/30	LV	5.0	42	50	-	Kerry +8
Zogby/WSJ** | 6/15-6/20	n/a	3.9	44.3	50.9	1.2	Kerry +6.6
Zogby/WSJ** | 6/1-6/6	n/a	3.8	44.6	50.5	1.0	Kerry +5.9
Rasmussen | 5/1-31	n/a	5.0	46	45	-	Bush +1
Zogby/WSJ** | 5/18-23	n/a	3.2	44.3	49.7	2.9	Kerry +5.4
Riley/KGW-TV | 5/5-10	776 LV	3.5	44	39	0	Bush +5
Research 2000 | 5/6-10	603 LV	4.0	45	47	3	Kerry +2
ARG | 5/3-5/5	600 LV	4.0	45	45	5	TIE
Research 2000 | 4/25-4/29	600 LV	4.0	46	48	-	Kerry +2
Rasmussen | 4/25	500 LV	4.5	43	43	8	TIE
OSU | 3/19-4/7	444 RV	4.7	47	45	1	Bush +2
The Oregonian | 3/4	400 RV	5.0	40	45	5	Kerry +5

[RockinRight]

If Bush wins Oregon, he will also win PA, NJ, ME.

[Publius]

That was Washington. George Nethercutt defeated Tom Foley in 1994.

[man from mars]

More good new in the poles coming out tomarrow. Bush is pulling way in Nevada, New Mexico, Fl, Maine and New hampshire.

Bush is even in NJ, MD and close in NY.

[Lunatic Fringe]

I wasn't looking at the average. I was looking at the latest poll.

[finnman69]

just in time to make the RATS fret for the weekend

heh heh

[drangundsturm]

I don't buy it. If you look at other polls around the same date ranges this is the outlier. If you scroll down the page, Riley Research seems to be skewed toward bush more than any other polling firm during the same timeframes.

[TheBigB]

Tom Foley.

[HiJinx]

Did you see the after-action report from Oregon Rancher regarding the President's rally in Medford?

Those numbers appear to actually be low, when you consider the attendance figures for the rally...

[WhistlingPastTheGraveyard]

I believe Oregon will swing for W this time, also. Lots of California conservatives have been flocking there in recent years.

[Inspectorette]

Aren't you thinking of Washington State and Tom Foley?

[Integrityrocks]

All voting is absentee? I didn't know that. So, does that make for a better or worse turn out. Just curious.

[KnutCase]

The Riley Poll is local. A recent poll by them had Kerry ahead by 2 or 3%. They do polling primarily for statewide or local candidates. This year they have added Presidential figures to their poll. Previous Riley polls have shown GW is good shape contrary to the national polling companies.