Iowa Electonic Poll Moving GWB's Way

Iowa Electronic Market ^ | 10-16-04 | Zebra

[madison46]

You do have a face for internet *smile*

[Graybeard58]

Yeah, but look at the lovely grand daughters I made.

[Drango]

If I knew that I would be rich and good looking instead of just good looking.

Or smart...and as meatloaf said "2 out of 3, ain't bad."

[madison46]

Cute. You should be proud.

[madison46]

Just checked my About page. I've been member since Nov 3 2000. Dang,I'm getting old.

Anyway, praying for some good OH news shortly. I think Rassmusen had a 7 day tracking poll showing Bush +2 the other day, but he was the worst in 2000.

[Turk82_1]

You have to remember, Rush featured this prominently on his show, as well as posting a link on his website. Could be the effect of lots of conservatives trying to win Dummocrats' money.

[Zebra]

You have to remember, Rush featured this prominently on his show, as well as posting a link on his website. Could be the effect of lots of conservatives trying to win Dummocrats' money.

Exactly. The markets functioning at their best--smart people reaping profits from the moronic "bets" of the misguided.

[JingoJim]

I believe that right now there is a very large seller of Bush contracts making himself felt. I noticed this several weeks ago and then have been numerous attempts to move the market lower since then. I would guess this seller has sold between 40,000 and 60,000 contracts and maybe more over a period of weeks. For the last few days the seller has kept his foot on the market to keep it below 55 and has stepped in this morning to sell it down to 54. (It keeps popping up) The style of selling suggests that it is attempt to hold the market down for EFFECT. I am sure a large number of pundits and commentators check in with the market regularly. I have moved my share of stocks myself and recognize when it is occurring. Everyone can play in this market for whatever reason. But the assumption is one is trying to make money. This seller has not made smart short term trades which suggests that money may not the primary motivation. One can sell 100,000 of $10 contracts at, for example, 55 and the risk of loss is $450,000 if Bush wins. It may be good PR to whack this market, unsettle the Bush pundits and Bush campaign while whipping up the Kerry troops. (The BIG MO.) Actually, not a bad investment. If it works it would even make $550,000/100,000 sold. But the are plenty of well heeled democrats who just may consider it a contribution to the cause. Soros could even be having fun with it.

[JingoJim]

I believe that right now there is a very large seller of Bush contracts making himself felt. I noticed this several weeks ago and then have been numerous attempts to move the market lower since then. I would guess this seller has sold between 40,000 and 60,000 contracts and maybe more over a period of weeks. For the last few days the seller has kept his foot on the market to keep it below 55 and has stepped in this morning to sell it down to 54. (It keeps popping up) The style of selling suggests that it is attempt to hold the market down for EFFECT. I am sure a large number of pundits and commentators check in with the market regularly. I have moved my share of stocks myself and recognize when it is occurring. Everyone can play in this market for whatever reason. But the assumption is one is trying to make money. This seller has not made smart short term trades which suggests that money may not the primary motivation. One can sell 100,000 of $10 contracts at, for example, 55 and the risk of loss is $450,000 if Bush wins. It may be good PR to whack this market, unsettle the Bush pundits and Bush campaign while whipping up the Kerry troops. (The BIG MO.) Actually, not a bad investment. If it works it would even make $550,000/100,000 sold. But the are plenty of well heeled democrats who just may consider it a contribution to the cause. Soros could even be having fun with it.

[Turk82_1]

Agreed. And here I am blinkered by middle-class thinking: "should I bet the kids' college money on...."

Meantime, Teddy's trust fund is working overtime to depress these otherwise excellent arbiters. But I am sure there are other Bush supporters doing the same thing.

Too bad there isn't a middle-class voter market....

[Drango]

Well If it was super easy...and I knew what the heck I was doing...I'd buy Bush to win at 53.

[JingoJim]

Actually tradesports is by far the most liquid. It is just currently under enormous manipulation. The bright side is that it is a very profitable OPPORTUNITY.

[ArmyBratproud]

"We are out here doing our job. Now you get out there and do yours." Help Get Out the Vote! Oct. 16 (Sat) and 17 (Sun) is Walk The Vote Day for Bush/Cheney and the GOP! Info here- http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1246830/posts?page=1 ------------------------------------------ Go to GeorgeWBush.com. (While there, sign up as an on-line volunteer) They have flyers you can print out as well. Sign up to Organize a Walk the Vote https://www.georgewbush.com/Secure/SignUpBP.aspx?t=w Host a Party for the President https://www.georgewbush.com/Secure/SignUpBP.aspx Brochure that you can print out! http://www.georgewbush.com/Party/Agenda_Flyer.pdf

[Zebra]

The unbridled delight I take at such a prospect as Soros losing money on such an idiotic vanity as that............

[JingoJim]

I would bet the college fund and take the home equity line of credit on this. LOL

[MJY1288]

Jeff, I agree that Bush will win, but I think it will be by a wider margin.

The internals in New Jersey look great for Bush. On who is the better leader...It's Bush by a wide margin.

Bush is up by 5 in New Mexico and the internals show the same kind of lead on leadership

I believe Oregon will go for Bush, and Maryland is razor thin and if Governor Ehrlich and Lt Gov. Steele campaign for Bush, he could win Maryland also.

I truly believe that a majority of the fence sitters will break for Bush because of the wide margin of support he has in the leadership area. When fence sitters go to vote, security will be on their mind, and who will best lead. After all we are electing our leader.

Kerry's terrible performance on Wednesday and the remarks by Mrs. Edwards have hurt the Kerry/Edwards ticket quite a bit in mu opinion, and I think they will be steadily going down in the Polls from here on out.

I predict Bush will win over 400 electoral votes

[JingoJim]

I am amazed at how a man like Soros with an apparently good understanding of the logic of markets can be such an irrational numbskull when it comes to politics. He needs to be crushed convincingly.

[Zebra]

I am amazed at how a man like Soros with an apparently good understanding of the logic of markets can be such an irrational numbskull when it comes to politics. He needs to be crushed convincingly.

Nah. He is like a James Bond villain. You first have to be a genius. Then you have to be insane--preferably a paranoid meglomaniac. And like the villains who never kill Bond, Soros will miss with Bush. Very funny stuff, if you think about it that way. In fact, Soros is more of a caricature here--like a Doctor Evil.

[MNJohnnie]

Let's not get to giddy people. Still a long way to go to election day. We still got to get EVERY Bush voter to the polls to offset the massive Voter fraud and Legal challenges the Dims are cooking up.

[MNJohnnie]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

Check this. Still lots and lots of hard work ahead but the news IS trending our way. Just got to make sure the voter fraud and legal challenges by the dims fail