Iowa Electonic Poll Moving GWB's Way

Iowa Electronic Market ^ | 10-16-04 | Zebra

[Zebra]

Something is going on, and it is not good for Lurch. Check out the Iowa Electronic Market. http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

[Zebra]

Electronic, that is. Oh well, it's late..........

[Jeff Head]

I'm calling it for Bush

[Zebra]

You are so right. Go George, go!

[BCrago66]

OK the election is over then. That's a relief.

[Jeff Head]

Read the thread...not over by a long shot. Lots of hard work, commitment, faith and prayer between here and any victory.

From the thread...

Let's do all we can to make sure it happens and that Kerry is not only defeated, but defeated soundly

[BCrago66]

You could overlay that Iowa futures graph over the RealClearPOlitics graph of polls, and they are remarkably similar.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

[Zebra]

The Mary Cheney remark, or something else?

[madison46]

I'm sure that graph drives the Iowa market,not the other way around ;-) Hope Iowa market is right, but until I see good news from OH, I'm one worried camper cause I've seen no public good news. Someone has emailed me saying the internal polls are good, but I'd like to see some public numbers if the private ones are so good.

Still, I'll take that trend over kerry's trend any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

[DJtex]

So Bush goes from 10 cents ahead to 17 cents. That's a huge lead if it holds. Actually, the 10 cent lead is plenty good enough. That ties in with so many polls in the last 2 days that show Bush up by 3-4%.

These are excellent numbers all around.

[JLS]

This is very odd. Iowa Electronic Markets are showing a price of it appears slightly above .58 for Bush, while Tradesport is right now around .53?

That much of a spread means there is an arbitrage opportunity. I wonder is on of these two markets is much thinner than the other?

[Graybeard58]

Here's good news for you about Ohio:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1246818/posts

[Zebra]

Tradesports is thinner. A contract will move it more. Follow the IEM.

[BCrago66]

President Bush can lose Ohio and still make it to 270 with Wisconnsin and another small battlegound state. If, however, Kerry loses OH, he is done.

See the RealClearPolitics analysis: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_10_8_04_1011.html

Plus, President Bush seems to be up in Winsonnsin, however the polls here are a bit old:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/wi_polls.html

[madison46]

A place where kerry has higher potential support is not good news. Those numbers are outside the margin of error. Like the site said, if kerry has better GOTV, he's got more to draw on. For me, a poll that shows Bush up 50+ to 45 or 46 would be nice.

I'm happy with last 2 days of trends though.

[Graybeard58]

I wonder is on of these two markets is much thinner than the other?

If I knew that I would be rich and good looking instead of just good looking.

[NewMediaFan]

Poll	Date	Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Nader/ Camejo	Spread
RCP Average	10/9 - 10/14	47.8%	45.5%	1.5%	Bush +2.3
Zogby (1220 LV)	10/12 - 10/14	48%	44%	1%	Bush +4
ABC/Wash Post (1202 LV)*	10/11 - 10/13	48%	48%	1%	TIE
TIPP (818 LV)	10/10 - 10/13	47%	44%	2%	Bush +3
CBS News (760 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
ICR (763 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	43%	2%	Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV)	10/9 - 10/10	48%	49%	1%	Kerry +1

[BCrago66]

The analysis stands even though I have trouble spelling Winconsin :-)

[Graybeard58]

A place where kerry has higher potential support

Instead of being concerned about "potential" support focus on the good news that his actual support is weak.

Ohio will go to bush.

[Drango]

Tradesports isn't showing a move for Bush

BID

Qty

Price

6	52.9
12	52.8
15	52.5
50	52.3
20	52.2
143	52.1
1020	52.0
12	51.7
20	51.6
5	51.5
53	51.3
58	51.1
100	50.7
87	50.2
736	50.1

ASK

Price

Qty

53.0	29
53.4	4
53.5	506
54.0	5
54.6	55
54.8	43
54.9	60
55.0	1000
55.2	15
55.5	25
55.6	1
55.7	2
55.9	704
56.0	290
56.1	94