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From Publishers Weekly: While our culture generally trusts experts and distrusts the wisdom of the masses, New Yorker business columnist Surowiecki argues that "under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them." To support this almost counterintuitive proposition, Surowiecki explores problems involving cognition (we're all trying to identify a correct answer), coordination (we need to synchronize our individual activities with others) and cooperation (we have to act together despite our self-interest). His rubric, then, covers a range of problems, including driving in traffic, competing on TV game shows, maximizing stock market...

IEM Inc., a Baton Rouge, La.-based emergency management and homeland security consultant, announced it will lead the development of a catastrophic hurricane disaster plan for Southeast Louisiana and the City of New Orleans under a more than half a million dollar contract with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). In making the announcement today on behalf of teaming partners Dewberry, URS Corporation and James Lee Witt Associates, IEM Director of Homeland Security Wayne Thomas explained that the development of a base catastrophic hurricane disaster plan has urgency due to the recent start of the annual hurricane...

From hopping over to Tradesports throughout the day looks like "W" got down to about 28 or so. Maybe lower? Anyone make a killing? Let us rejoice vicariously through you!

Market Quotes: Pres04_WTA.html Quotes current as of 05:00:01 CST, Wednesday, November 03, 2004. Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average DEM04_G52 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.003 DEM04_L52 0.001 0.006 0.001 0.001 0.035 0.012 REP04_L52 0.952 0.975 0.974 0.787 0.975 0.886 REP04_G52 0.003 0.066 0.030 0.030 0.169 0.095 The source of these quotes is updated every 15 minutes. To refresh your screen, use the refresh button on your browser. | Prospectus | Price History | Graph | | Login and Trade | WebEx Manual | IEM Home Page | Site maintained by Iowa Electronic Markets

Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average KERR 0.495 0.519 0.499 0.475 0.507 0.492 BU|KERR 0.501 0.504 0.506 0.501 0.519 0.511

Does anyone know when those close? Is it when the polls open of close?

In the last 2 hours, Bush has fallen from 55.3 to 51.3 on the winner takes all market. On the vote share market, Bush is still up 3% on Kerry. Anyone seeing any news out there that would account for this?

http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html I think we are seeing some kind of manipulation going on. Bush was up by a decent margin not long ago. Then all of a sudden the bottom dropped out and now its a dead heat.

This is the one I'm following. Currently it has Bush taking 52.5 percent of the popular vote and Kerry with 47.5 percent. This is not the same as the "US PRESIDENTIAL WINNER TAKES ALL MARKET" who's numbers we've seen posted here many times.

Evidence of movement towards Bush: http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

Bush 55.1 % Kerry 45.1 %

Bush has gone up 5 points in the last hour. Now at 56.4%

The continual manipulation of the Bush contract on Tradesports and IEM has a real risk of effecting this election. The seller either has significant knowledge of unknown information or is manipulating the contract for EFFECT. MANY commentators and pundits check these markets regularly and it effect their judgements and confidence. This is not a time to wobble. Freepers need to make this known WIDELY. The seller has sold 100's of thousands of contracts to break and suppress the market. If you do not understand the effect it has just look at Soros' manipulation of the pound. He made himself right....

Race tightening up considerably ... Market Quotes: Pres04_WTA.html Quotes current as of 07:45:01 CST, Thursday, October 28, 2004. Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average DEM04_G52 0.158 0.163 0.163 0.159 0.163 0.161 DEM04_L52 0.305 0.308 0.308 0.300 0.310 0.303 REP04_L52 0.326 0.330 0.326 0.318 0.330 0.328 REP04_G52 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.201 0.219 0.206 The source of these quotes is updated every 15 minutes. To refresh your screen, use the refresh button on your browser.

Kerry is now where he is on most of the polls around 47% Bush at about 54%. The 47% is about where most polls show Kerry's ceiling. While its obvious that the extremely high numbers of the past few weeks for Bush had to come down, where do you all expect it to end up? Did the 2000 election show a change of the leader close to election day? Incidently, tradesports numbers are now very similar to these. Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average DEM04_G52 0.163 0.165 0.165 0.140 0.165 0.157 DEM04_L52 0.304 0.312 0.311 0.295 0.322 0.306 .476...

Bush is over $0.62 in the Iowa Electronic Markets and is surging. It's at the highest level since before the first debate. Buy now why you can still make a quick buck. It's too bad you can't short Kerry. W. is a lock to win.

Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average DEM04_G52 0.146 0.149 0.147 0.147 0.166 0.154 DEM04_L52 0.241 0.242 0.241 0.235 0.245 0.242 REP04_L52 0.292 0.316 0.317 0.279 0.317 0.304 REP04_G52 0.311 0.316 0.312 0.312 0.326 0.319

Iowa Electronic Markets Pres04_WTA 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm

This is amazing! If you look at the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average of all polls, which is considered THE MOST ACCURATE POLL (futures markets notwithstanding), looks eerily similar to the IEM election futures market. I think this is excellent news for Bush. Take a Look:Iowa electronic Market: RCP Average:

In the past hour or so there has been a major Bush surge and a major Kerry fall. Kerry has fallen down into the 35 range. While Bush is back up over 60 again.