Posted on 10/16/2004 7:03:03 AM PDT by bad company
Saturday October 16, 2004--On Saturday morning, the latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern. Two-thirds of the interviews for today's Tracking Poll were conducted following Wednesday night's Presidential Debate.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I just had a light-bulb moment. The polls are getting ridiculous now. My thoughts are,,the Dems have been in charge of MSM and info distribution and judicial activism for soooo long now,,Americans have forgotten how to trust our gut feelings. Isn't that a sad side effect? W has tons of faith in the American people that if they listen to their hearts and guts they will vote the right way....
The lib establishment has robbed many of us of that confidence and I am tired of it.
I don't need any polls to tell me that the very same American people who rallied together on 9/11 are going to do the right thing at the election this year.
Don't let the Dems spook you or turn you away from your conscience. They can post all the polls they want. My conscience and my gut feeling tell me all I need to know.
Four more yearS!
Rasmussen took FL away from Bush. Back to toss up.
Bush lost 0.7% and Kerry gained 0.7% in ONE DAY? That means Bush is down 2 points from where he was before the debate.
If Rassmussen's numbers weren't generated by a monkey on crack flinging pooh at the numbers 45,46,47,48 and 49, I'd say it's disasterous.
Help me out here, I'm new to FR.
Yesterday, this same Rasmussen poll was VERY encouraging: Bush 49.0 and Kerry 45.5; but today it's 48.3 to 46.2
That can't be good, can it?
I'm from Taxachusetts (and Viet Nam era) - so we've seen this phony Kerry up close and personal for WAY too long (not to mention Ted "the Swimmer" Kennedy).
This phony can NOT become President.
So help my courage - and interpret some of these polls for me.
Thanks!
The weight of the evidence still has Bush up in Fla:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html.
Have you noticed that on the freebie side they havn't posted numbers for minnesota or wisconssin in three weeks? I wonder what those numbers are.
My estimates for Rasmussen's three day raw data is 49.6/46.4/48.9 Bush, 45.4/46.0/47.2 Kerry. Bush had a good day roll of yesterday, and will have another good day roll off tomorrow. Expect further tightening unless he polls very well today. But don't panic. This is all part of the same cycle of Rasmussen's polling that has been going on for months. It is like a sine wave with a regular flow of peaks and troughs. Over the last couple months, the average number for both candidates indicates Bush is building a very slow, but growing lead.
God Bless you for your service for which MOST Americans are grateful.
I don't have a clue how to interpret the polls my friend. I actually rely on my fellow Freepers to help me see the trends. I am relatively new to this forum myself.
I say, trust your gut. What does your instinct tell you? You are a VET, you surely have a honed sense of what is right and wrong. I would look to you to help me and others because of your incredible experience. I recently realized when I look back on most matters of national importance, my gut feelings are pretty good.
I'll give you an example that I think A LOT of people can relate to. I'll try to be brief. In the run-up to this Iraq war, when W was trying SO HARD to get the French and
Russians (among others) to go for it in the UN and they wouldn't budge,not an inch,,weren't you scratching your head and wondering what was going on? Didn't you once say to yourself,,there has to be something behind the scenes, there has to be a REASON France will not support getting rid of Saddam Hussein....right?
Well, if you got that funny feeling and those suspicions,,you were right!!! Lookeee here,,now what do we see? The UN oil-for-food scandal and guess who some of the prime recipients of Saddam's money are turning out to be...? FRANCE and RUSSIA. This is what I mean? Judges now tell us what is right is wrong and leave mass confusion in the wake of their decisions. People go to jail because they use guns to protect their families during home invasions and break ins and the criminals sue the victims and win!!!! Doesn't a part of you say,,this is crap! That's what I mean. The American gut has been turned inside out by the libs and its time to fix it!
Sorry for the rant. Trust your gut.
Unless the poll is out of reach (10 points) just use it to guage the general temp of the electorate. National polls really don't mean much as the electoral college is where the president is really elected. while it was fun to look at noone here (well mostly) really believed that GWB was up by 13 points after the convention. Whereas GWB is still in the lead, it's obviously a close race. The only poll to celebrate or mope about is the one on nov 2.
Rasmussen ping...
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
It is from the Iowa Electronic Market, where people bet real money on who they think is going to win. So far this year it seems to lead turn the polling data just a bit. Right now, it's trend looks good for Bush.
I think MD is a long shot but PA and NJ are possible.
Bush 299
Kerry 239
Sorry for the rant. Trust your gut
My optimism comes totally from the gut. I watch the rallies, Bush is up beat and humourous with loads of smiling attendees. Kerry is a drone and the audience seems smaller (maybe camera angles) and way less animated.
My gut says Bush is a winner.
We are not alone Bearshouse,,we are not alone.
Nice call, Rokke. You called 48-46 yesterday. I see Kerry has a relatively good 47 due to roll off today, though.
There is an interesting question of the nature of randomness within the MOE. Meaning, is it Gaussian or Uniform in distribution? Certainly not sinusoidal.
And a reminder, Rasmussen is NOT to be followed for an accurate snapshot because of his constant partisan mix. He is and has been for some time the very best measure of trend, but his absolute numbers mean nothing. You're going good work allowing us a look at an extra day (ahead) of trend, but the values reported mean nothing. They may be wrong.
The non-constant partisan mix samplers like Gallup who showed 9% swings over the past month in party affiliation are certainly wrong about their trends (so good on Rasmussen), but what they *will* show is any major manifestation of big Dem advantage from their attempted registration avalanche. There has been no such surge, thank God.
Now then, everyone, you have a duty to do. You can spare your country a weekend. Please volunteer with the campaign. I'm going to Reno the final weekend. I'm covering my own costs, but if you would rather not cover travel costs the RNC will reimburse you to go to a nearby battleground and help. (gopteamleader.com)
People, please do this. There is NOTHING, absolutely nothing worse than knowing that you didn't do all you could. Leave all your energy in the arena, not on your chair. If the worst happened and we lost, how will you feel knowing you didn't do all you could to prevent it?
The points that he let slip from deep inside Yaawn was that he would only go to war with a terrorist Country if it passes the Global Test. A test that was not passed in the first Iraq War and would not have been passed for Afghanistan since that was going to be a quagmire. We would not go to war to protect America if either France, Germany, China, North Korea or Libya disagreed.
He claims that America has lost it’s standing and admiration in the World. When exactly did the Europeans ever like America? Certainly not during the clinton regime when he couldn’t travel to Athens or Turkey because the protests were too violent with numbers pushing a million. Anyone remember the European term Maddie the Mad Bomber about Madeline Halfbright? Some of us would rather be respected & feared than loved by a bunch of radical unemployed Socialist/Communists.
We learned that he wants to destroy the current Medical System and install a Gummit program. He wants to enslave us with a Universal Healthcare modeling the Canadian system that takes 6 months to get an appointment. Never mind that Hillarycare II will drive the deficit into the Stratosphere.
He said that he will only raise taxes on the top 2% or $200,000 although the top two brackets he promises to rollback go down to the $150,000 level. He promises a tax-cut for us pissants in spite of his voting numerous times against Child Credits, death taxes, the marriage penalty and even raised taxes on Grandma’s Social Security. Anyone want to own a bridge in Brooklyn.
Mostly we learned that he is a very angry man who will attack anyone and everyone. During the debates he of course attacked the President in a fashion reminiscent of Jinjis Khan and Michael Mooron. Besides the President who apparently did nothing right, he attacked our closest allies, our troops fighting the wrong war, the VP’s daughter and even his own wife. In Yawn’s world the only person who measures up is Yawn Tax & Carry.
He exposed himself as man who refuses take stand on anything. He continuously dodges questions of a consummate politician, political sidestepping every issue to the point of exhaustion. His answers to personal questions were as bland and rehearsed as all of his answers. The Faith question he twisted the Bible verse of loving your neighbor to use as a club for not making Welfare large enough? Well, he did show what he truly worships, Big Gummit!
The debates actually gave us a good look into the emptiness that is Yawn Kerry. He has no soul, heart or backbone. Flip flop really doesn’t reach far enough because that supposes that he has taken a stand at one point or another. Other than his absolute hatred for America he cannot take a stand on anything. It is not a part of him to make a decision of any kind. He is the type that goes to a restaurant and orders the same thing every time because he could never order if there were more than 2 items. And forget the wine list, “pick something out Snookums.”
This is a shell that truly does blow in the wind. He criticizes anything other people do such as President Bush because they have positions to criticize. Twenty years in Congress and no accomplishments because he cannot take a stand and he is far too angry to bring people together. So here he sits on top of the most powerful political machine in the World’s history an empty hollow man.
Conversely, the debates showed us what a wonderfully simple leader we have now. This man is one of the most optimistic and family loving man to occupy the Oval Office. His vision of Freedom in the World is one of the most brilliant visions of all time. The belief that all men are endowed by their Creator yearning to breath freedom. To allow Democracy to overtake the Middle East and sweep across that land like a wildfire is purely brilliant. This is a mission that will bring Peace for the first time to a region that has been a desert of hope.
So in the next 2 weeks we have to do everything we can to make sure this man stays in the White House and let Freedom Ring around the World.
Pray for W and Our Troops
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1) Bush is moving in Gore(blue States). Ohio is stronger then the MSM states. NJ and MD are tied! Kerry & Edwards are visiting MD and NJ to shore up support. Dem are bring out Senator Lautenburg. The MD Republican Party is call for Poll watchers. They only do this when it is very close.
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NJ is real. Maryland is not. Edwards is there mostly to fund raise. The party is desperate about its Senate hopes. Also, they have to have money for a post election legal fiasco.
Fundraising for the Florida recount weeks last year was a major problem for the Dems.
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