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Iran's strongman plots comeback

As radical-conservative elements in Iranian parliament seek to preserve the state's dominant role in the economy, Iranian politician Aliakbar Hashemi Rafsanjani opposes them in a move analysts say is designed to catapult him to the presidency next year.

By Kamal Nazer Yasin for EurasiaNet (15/10/04)

A pitched political battle is raging in Iran over control of economic policy. Radical-conservative elements in the Iranian parliament are seeking to preserve the state's dominant role in the economy. They are opposed by prominent Iranian politician, Aliakbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Political analysts in Tehran say Rafsanjani wants to use the political dispute as a stepping stone to the presidency in 2005. Rafsanjani is a pragmatist among Iranian conservatives and is one of giants of the Islamic republican era, having served as parliament speaker from 1980-1989 and president from 1989-1997. He has maintained a low political profile in recent years. However, Rafsanjani has continued to wield immense influence, operating in the shadows as the head of the Expediency Council, one of the country's unelected political oversight bodies.

A bitter privatization dispute

Over the past two weeks, the Expediency Council has become embroiled in a bitter dispute with parliament over the privatization of state-owned assets. A hard-line faction that has seized control of parliament's agenda has been pushing legislation that would drastically curtail executive power and effectively retain state control over the economy. On 2 October, Rafsanjani engineered an Expediency Council decision that trumps the parliamentary effort to preserve much of Iran's current economic structure.

The Council's decision provided for changes to Article 44 of the Iranian constitution, which at present mandates that the state play a dominant role in key economic sectors. The move paves the way for privatization of inefficient enterprises, which consume a large portion of the state budget. "All major industries, manufacturing and service sectors will be ceded to the private sector in a bid to prevent the state sector from being a big employer," said a statement issued by the Expediency Council. One of the few sectors not covered by the privatization decision is broadcast and print media.

Tinkering with the constitution

Tinkering with the constitution is highly unusual, but within the Expediency Council's prerogatives, political observers said. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the authority to overturn the council's decision, but he is unlikely to do so, analysts added. Prior to the council's decision, radical-conservative legislators, who seek to rekindle the revolutionary fervor that created the Islamic republic in 1979, appeared poised to seize the political high ground in Tehran.

Rafsanjani's action via the Expediency Council is widely seen as having stopped the radical-conservatives' momentum. It is also being hailed by centrists and reformists as a move that could salvage Iran's economy. "The intervention by the Expediency Council is an unprecedented decision, for revitalizing the economy," a reformist government spokesman, Abdullah Ramezanzadeh, said at a 4 October news conference.

Undermining Islamic republican ideals

Iranian centrists and reformists, as well as influential members of the conservative establishment, hope that large-scale privatization will help the country attract billions in foreign investment, and lead to the modernization of Iran's energy infrastructure. A retooled infrastructure could stimulate job creation, thus easing the country's crushing unemployment problem. According to some estimates, Iran will need to create at least 700,000 jobs per year in coming years just to keep pace with the growth rate of young people coming of working age.

The radical-conservatives in parliament are actively trying to discourage foreign investment, mainly by seeking to place restrictions on the government's ability to negotiate international trade deals. Outside investment, the radical-conservatives apparently believe, could undermine the Islamic republican ideals that they seem intent on restoring. Accordingly, media outlets controlled by Iranian hardliners condemned the Expediency Council's decision. "The Expediency Council's decision on Article 44 of the Constitution is a grave mistake," said a 10 October editorial published by the ultra-conservative Jomhoori Islami newspaper. "Any modification of the Constitution by the council lacks legal legitimacy."

Casting himself as Iran's 'savior'

Meanwhile, hardliners have launched a whisper campaign designed to discourage Rafsanjani from running for president, playing up reports that the former speaker and his family members have engaged in improper business dealings. Political analysts in Tehran say that Rafsanjani's recent maneuverings are designed to aid a bid for the presidency in 2005. In mounting his quiet campaign, Rafsanjani is attempting to cast his himself as Iran's "savior" from retrograde radical-conservatives. In keeping with his cagey political style, however, Rafsanjani is publicly adopting the stance of reluctant politician. "I am disinclined to run for office [the presidency]," he said in comments published on 9 October by the Hambastegi daily. "However, if Islam and the country come under threat, I will not hesitate to rise to the occasion."

Rafsanjani's candidacy stands to gain support from Iran's managerial class, moderate conservatives and elements of the clergy and armed forces. Ironically, the realization of his presidential ambitions in 2005 may depend on reformists, who during the 1997 presidential election campaign, won by incumbent Mohammad Khatami, heaped scorn on Rafsanjani's political legacy.

Reformists in a state of disarray

Reformists now find themselves in a state of disarray, having been routed in a political battle with hardliners, culminating in the parliamentary elections last February, in which conservative elements won a dominating majority of seats. A consensus reformist candidate for president has failed to materialize. Thus, many reformists may at least consider throwing their support behind Rafsanjani.

Reformists continue to view Rafsanjani as an unscrupulous politician, ready to sacrifice any policy position for the sake of personal political aggrandizement. Yet, at the same time, some reformists admit that he may be the "lesser evil" candidate - someone more likely to steer a centrist political course. Others see him as one of Iran's few politicians with the skills needed to address not only the country's domestic political and economic turmoil, but also the mounting international crisis over Iran's nuclear program. Rafsanjani at present appears the odds-on favorite to capture the election. Whether he can be effective as chief executive, however, remains uncertain. His relatively narrow political support base, combined with reformists' skepticism and the bitter radical-conservative opposition, means that he would likely face draining policy fights in the future. But as one analyst said: "Those who underestimate Heshemi's [Rafsanjani's] prodigious skills do so at their own peril."

Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_17-10-2004_pg4_18

Iranian MPs move to stop Rafsanjani presidency bid

Hardline MPs collecting signatures to propose a bill to prevent anyone more than 65 years of age from standing

TEHRAN: Iran's conservative MPs are drumming up support for a bill that would bar influential former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from standing for the post again next year, newspapers reported on Saturday.

Mid-ranking cleric Rafsanjani, 70, is styled as a pragmatic conservative, whose 1989-1997 presidency was characterised by modest economic and cultural liberalisation. Rafsanjani has said he would stand for the presidency in summer 2005 if there were no other suitable candidates. Radical conservatives in parliament, who came to power in late May after thousands of reformist candidates were banned, have stubbornly resisted privatisations, foreign investment and greater social freedoms

Newspapers reported hardline MPs Ali Ahmadi and Reza Talainik were collecting signatures to propose a bill to stop anyone more than 65 years old from standing, a further sign of rifts opening within the conservative camp of oil-rich Iran.

"The suggestion is that those who initiated the draft plan did so to stop people like Rafsanjani who is 70...and pave the way for the candidacy of the so-called right-wingers," wrote the Jomhuri-ye Eslami daily. Rafsanjani heads the Expediency Council, Iran's top legislative arbitration body, that earlier this month overturned a key plank of Iran's constitution to allow large-scale sales of state assets.

This rebuffed parliamentarians who had spent their first few months in power unravelling a slew of planned privatisations and foreign investment deals.

Liberal President Mohammad Khatami steps down in 2005. His attempts to push through sweeping economic and social reforms having been largely frustrated by hardliners. The reformist candidate of choice had been Mirhossein Mousavi, a prime minister during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, but he renounced his candidacy earlier this month.

"After Mirhossein Mousavi, the only candidate who can challenge the conservatives is Abkar Hashemi Rafsanjani," said Ali Akbar Mousavi-Khoeini, a member of the League of Combatant Clerics, a reformist party. Prominent hardliners tipped for the presidency are Ali Akbar Velayati, an ex-foreign minister, and Ali Larijani, former head of the state broadcast media. They are now both advisers to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Chief nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani is keeping his cards close to his chest. reuters