Iranian Alert - October 17, 2004 [EST]- IRAN LIVE THREAD - "Americans for Regime Change in Iran"

But i thought one of the grand bargains, actually the only grand bargain and so-called victory for the europeans was the END of stoning in Iran?!?

More lies and deceptions from the EU and the Islamic Republic.

'Conspiracy' Crisis

[Excerpt]
October 17, 2004
NY Post
Amir Taheri

Last year a number of "investigative journal ists" had a field day with "news" of a secret Saudi plan to help President Bush's re-election. The charge that made many headlines and became the subject of much television chatter passed as news: The Saudis would bring the price of oil down to $15 to make the average American, who drives a gas-guzzler, happy, thus persuading him to vote for Bush.

The claim was picked up by Sen. Edward Kennedy, an old adept of conspiracy theories, and inspired several books and "documentaries" in which Bush was labeled "The Arabian Candidate." Some weeks later, Sen. John Kerry picked up the theme at his party's convention.

Well, here we are on the eve of the election with oil above $50 a barrel, the highest price ever. There is no sign of Saudis staying awake at night to pump oil into the market to give Bush a boost. Nor have the oil barons, who were supposed to be Bush's allies, gone out of their way to increase refining to bring prices down for the American consumer.

The myth about the Saudi secret plan was reinforced with the claim that Bush was the favorite of Arabs. But now polls suggest that more than 60 percent of Arab-Americans intend to vote for Kerry, and a further 10 percent for Ralph Nader. That leaves Bush with around 30 percent of the Arab-American vote, hardly enough to qualify him as "The Arabian Candidate."

NOR is it difficult to find out what Arab regimes think of Bush. It is enough to read Al-Ahram, the Egyptian government's newspaper, or to tune in to Al-Jazeera, the satellite-TV channel owned by the Emir of Qatar, to gauge the depth of hatred that the Arab despotic elites feel for Bush.

The Islamists share that hatred. "Anybody but Bush," Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi mused in a Newsweek interview last week. Almost a dozen Islamic groups have echoed this by calling on American Muslims to vote for Kerry.

While the two senators for Massachusetts were trying to stick the "Arabian" label on Bush, some Arabs were promoting a label of their own. To them, Bush, far from being sympathetic to the Arabs, was, in the words of Al Ahram, "the most dangerously pro-Israeli president the U.S. has ever had." Al-Jazeera commentators claimed that the Bush administration was "made of Jews, and for Jews."

Yet polls show that some 70 percent of Jewish-Americans plan to vote for Kerry. The Arab media that routinely describe Jewish-Americans as an Israeli "fifth column" in the United States would have a hard time explaining why "the most pro-Israel president ever" is not getting the Jewish-American vote.

APART from being labeled "Arabian" and "Israeli," Bush has also been branded the candidate of Big Money. But is he?

We now know that the Kerry campaign raised over $300 million, compared to Bush's $240 million. And that the top 100 corporations contributed more to the Kerry campaign than to Bush's. And that the anti-Bush cause attracted massive donations from many wealthy individuals, notably a $15 million check from the speculator George Soros. No one can be sure how the Americans will vote on Nov. 2. But one thing is already certain: Bush is not an "Arabian," "Oil Cartel," "Israeli," or "Big Money" candidate.

With none of those labels having stuck to Bush, another conspiracy kite has been flown: the claim that Bush is cooking a big surprise to be sprung in October. Perhaps the sudden introduction of Osama bin Laden, the fugitive terrorist, on television just days before the election. We've been told that bin Laden was arrested months ago in Pakistan but kept on ice on Bush's orders to be conjured, like a rabbit out of the magician's hat, in October.

Well, there will be no "October Surprise," and bin Laden, as far as I know, has been dead since December 2001 (despite CIA claims to the contrary, based on a couple of dubious audiotapes attributed to bin Laden).

It is important to remember all this because of the steady growth of the market for conspiracy theories in the United States.

Normally, conspiracy theories are popular in underdeveloped despotic societies in which the government lies to the people and is lied to in return. In such societies, no one says or does anything without some concealed motive, and nothing happens without a secret plan concocted by a cabal of conspirators.

The presidential campaign of 1980 birthed the first "October Surprise" chimera. This was a yarn about secret deals between emissaries of Ronald Reagan, the Republican nominee and Iranian mullahs to delay the release of American hostages in Tehran until after the U.S. election.

The yarn served several purposes.

First, it diverted attention from the fact that President Jimmy Carter had failed miserably to obtain the liberation of the hostages after 400 days, inspiring Ayatollah Khomeini to come up with his notorious dictum: "America cannot do a damned thing!"

Second, it shifted blame for failure to liberate the hostages from Carter to Reagan, who had supposedly conspired with the mullahs to keep U.S. citizens captive.

Finally, the yarn made excuses for Carter — as an honest man who was being stabbed in the back not only by the treacherous mullahs but also by the Republicans.

THE fact that so many Ameri cans are prepared to buy "alternative histories," as presented by the arch-liar Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11," and more than 200 books built on conspiracy theories, must be seen as a sign that American democracy is unwell. It shows that the opposition is unable to take on the governing party and the president through normal political debate (which is about options, choices, policies and performance).

PART of this is due to intel lectual laziness. For exam ple, it is somewhat difficult to criticize the Bush doctrine of pre-emption in self-defense as a means of altering the status quo in the Middle East to democratize the region and thus, indirectly, serve America's national interests. It is easier to say Bush invaded Afghanistan because Texas oil wanted to build a pipeline from Central Asia. Or to say Bush invaded Iraq because his oil buddies want to steal its oil or because Ariel Sharon would sleep better with Saddam Hussein in jail.

This year's presidential election is likely to enter history as the poorest in a long time, in terms of tackling real issues. ...

E-mail: amirtaheri@benadorassociates.com

Since Kerry (not Bush) has apparently become "The Arabian Candidate", I guess that label has flip-flopped and become a 'good thing'?
What do you say Sen. Kennedy? How about you, McAuliffe?
*crickets*

THANKS for the list

"France will continue to work with its *partners and the Iranian authorities*..."

Isn't that the same thing?

Terrorism: Following Zarqawi's Footsteps in Iran

[Excerpt]

Vahid Salemi / AP

Zarqawi connection? Iran’s judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi (left), Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (standing) and former prosecutor Morteza Moqtadaei

By Mark Hosenball

Newsweek

Oct. 25 issue - The Bush administration has repeatedly fingered Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi—self-confessed beheader of U.S. hostage Nicholas Berg and other Western captives—as a critical link between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda. In the vice presidential debate, Dick Cheney said that after U.S. forces attacked Afghanistan seeking to roust Osama bin Laden, al-Zarqawi "migrated to Baghdad." But other U.S. officials say the Jordanian terrorist's contacts in neighboring Iran are probably more extensive than any dealings he had with Saddam.

Sources close to Jordanian intelligence say al-Zarqawi has gone back and forth across the Iran-Iraq border since Saddam's regime fell. According to a Jordanian intelligence briefing made available to NEWSWEEK, al-Zarqawi crossed the Iranian border after being wounded in Afghanistan in late 2001, was treated, then stayed in an Iranian safe house in the same town as fugitive Qaeda leaders. Later al-Zarqawi traveled to northern Iraq, Syria and Turkey. But he supposedly returned to Iran around March 2002, at which point he was "arrested" by Iranian authorities. Some Jordanian investigators believe that a high-ranking Iranian intel official then established a relationship with him to provide aid.

TO GO WITH AFP STORY "IRAQ-TRANSITION-ZA

Marwan Naamani / AFP-Getty Images

Wanted: The U.S. Army is offering $5 million for the capture of Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi

U.S. officials say that al-Zarqawi was escorted by Iranian authorities to the border with Iraq and expelled in the spring of 2002. Bush aides say he then allegedly spent several months in Baghdad and in an enclave in Iraqi Kurdistan controlled by the Qaeda-affiliated Ansar Al-Islam. But according to the Jordanian briefing, after the invasion of Iraq al-Zarqawi recrossed the border into Iran and was again "captured" by Iranian authorities. Some Jordanian officials believe that during this sojourn in "custody," al-Zarqawi's high-level Iranian contact got in touch again, and this time encouraged him to organize violent resistance to the American occupation of Iraq. Bush officials have said they now believe al-Zarqawi is the most important kingpin of the Iraqi insurgency. American intel agencies agree that he flitted between Iran and Iraq before and after the U.S. invasion. But U.S. analysts are skeptical of Jordanian allegations about a significant relationship between al-Zarqawi and Iranian intelligence. ...

American Sanctions on Iran Likely

15:25 Oct 17, '04 / 2 Cheshvan 5765

(IsraelNN.com) Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz stated today that the White House may soon impose sanctions on Iran in response to threats from Teheran. Mofaz added the sanctions may even precede the upcoming American presidential elections to be held in November.

Russia urges Iran nuclear action

A general view of Iran's first nuclear reactor, being built in Bushehr

Sanctions against Iran would threaten the Bushehr project

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said Iran must take more steps to dispel concern about its nuclear programme, Russian media have reported.

He said Iran should ratify a protocol signed last year with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and end its uranium enrichment programme.

Iran says it will reject any proposal for a complete halt to such activities.

The UK, France and Germany are to present a package aimed at convincing Tehran to give up nuclear ambitions.

The IAEA would like to see more steps promoting greater trust in the Iranian nuclear programme and Iran must take such steps

Sergei Lavrov
Russian foreign minister

Iranian press on new initiative

The Iranian government is expected to receive the proposal next week.

The IAEA has set a deadline of the end of November for Iran to suspend all uranium enrichment-related activities.

The US accuses Iran of aiming to develop nuclear weapons, but Iran says its nuclear programme is purely for peaceful purposes.

Correspondents say Washington still favours UN sanctions against Iran but is prepared to give the Europeans a final opportunity to negotiate a settlement before next month's deadline.

Russia is opposed to sanctions, which could threaten its $800m deal to build Iran's Bushehr nuclear power station.

Moratorium

Mr Lavrov said there were specific steps Tehran could take to calm IAEA fears about its nuclear programme.

"The IAEA would like to see more steps promoting greater trust in the Iranian nuclear programme and Iran must take such steps," the Russian Interfax news agency quoted him as saying.

He specified that Iran should ratify a protocol it signed last year allowing for additional IAEA inspections, and impose a moratorium on its enrichment programme.

But the Russian minister said Russia would continue to co-operate with Iran on construction at Bushehr.

Efforts to get Iran to abandon enrichment have been a failure so far, yet prospects of imposing effective sanctions on Iran through the UN Security Council are uncertain to say the least, says BBC News Online's world affairs correspondent Paul Reynolds.

National security official Hossein Mousavian said on Saturday that Tehran would not be deprived of its legitimate right to a nuclear fuel cycle.

Mr Mousavian's words appeared to confirm the lack of optimism that an offer to Iran would work.

However, he said Iran was ready to consider continuing its suspension of uranium enrichment and discuss new initiatives to provide guarantees that the process would never be diverted to military purposes.

Our correspondent says Britain, France and Germany feel there is a window of opportunity ahead of a meeting of the IAEA on 25 November.

The European offer is said to include a pledge to resume EU-Iran trade talks.

It is also thought to include guarantees that Iran will have access to nuclear fuel from Russia.

Published Saturday, October 16, 2004

City to host Iranian center

BY MAX GLADSTONE
Contributing Reporter Downtown New Haven will soon play host to a new effort to preserve the memories and experiences of the Iranian people.

The U.S. State Department's Human Rights and Democracy Fund recently allotted a $1 million, two-year grant to establish the Iranian Human Rights Documentation Center, which will be dedicated to recording human rights abuses by the Iranian government from 1979 to the present. The IHRDC was co-founded by former Yale Law School lecturer and senior fellow Payam Ahkhavan, professor of internal medicine Ramin Ahmadi and journalist and writer Roya Hakakain.

The current Islamic Republic of Iran was formed in 1979 when Ayatollah Khomeini deposed the former Shah. Hundreds of the Shah's supporters were executed, and the regime Khomeini established has since been accused of numerous human rights violations including torture, arbitrary execution and wrongful arrests.

Based on his experience as a U.N. prosecutor in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, Akhavan said that honesty and justice are essential to effective democratic transformation in societies such as Iran that have suffered from systematic human rights violations.

"Eradicating a culture of impunity is an indispensable component of building civil society in Iran and providing non-violent alternatives for democratic change," Akhavan said. "The rule of law must become a political habit, and this can only be achieved if public officials are held accountable for serious human rights abuses such as arbitrary executions and torture."

As a former associate producer for 60 Minutes and author of the book "Journey from the Land of No," a memoir of her experiences growing up as a Jewish teenager in Khomeini's Iran, Hakakain said she feels it is her responsibility to ensure that the true story of Iran is remembered.

"I felt that a certain history I had witnessed had been misinterpreted or, in some ways, obliterated," she said. "The project, IHRDC, is in some ways an extension of the same desire -- to want to tell the story of history in our own voice, the way that we experienced it, not the way that it's been written about so far."

Ahmadi and Akhavan said they expect that the center will be closely involved with the Yale community.

"We plan to develop a close working relationship with the Law School, and also with other departments who are interested in having their students, whether graduates or undergrads, do research on human rights," said Ahmadi.

Hakakain said she hopes that, in addition to increasing accountability for human rights violations, the center will also provide Iranians with what she terms "a body of history and memory."

"So much of what happens in dictatorships, you know, [is] that all records get deleted and everything gets constantly erased," she said. "No matter how courageous individual Iranians tend to be and no matter how hard they work, the memory of their heroism and their courage is constantly erased. I hope that the center can become an indelible body where things can stay, and in the future they can look to it and be heartened."

Katsav Addresses the Iranian Threat

17:45 Oct 17, '04 / 2 Cheshvan 5765

(IsraelNN.com) President Moshe Katsav today warned that if Iran is permitted to achieve nuclear independence, “the world will change for the worse”.

The president warned that a “terror-supporting totalitarian regime may not be permitted to develop nuclear weaponry”.

The president is calling on the “free world” to take a firm position against Teheran, adding that every time this was the case, Iran backed down and when the world took a passive approach, Iran continued its weapons development program.

Oct. 17, 2004 18:44 | Updated Oct. 17, 2004 20:19

Mofaz: IDF deployed to combat rockets

By HERB KEINON

The IDF's three-week operation in northern Gaza has not ended, but rather the army is just redeploying after its military goals were met, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz told the cabinet at its weekly meeting Sunday.

"I directed the army to continue it's immediate readiness to combat the further firing of rockets on Sderot, including a continued preparedness to reenter the area when necessary" Mofaz said.

Mofaz said that the IDF did not end the fighting, and will continue to employ "special measures" in the area.

Mofaz told the ministers that the operation "succeeded" in significantly reducing the number of rocket attacks on Sderot, in damaging Hamas's ability to fire rockets, and in improving the IDF's ability to control the area.

Operation Days of Repentance ended Friday night with the IDF pulling out of the densely populated refugee camps in northern Gaza, but leaving some troops on the hilltops in the area. Mofaz said that some 120 Palestinians were killed during the operation, of which about 70 were involved in terrorist activities.

Palestinian officials have put the number of Palestinians killed at 140.

Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom also briefed the cabinet, and related to recent overtures from Syria.

"We have recently witnessed a number of positive statements coming from Syria, which are being carefully analyzed. However, like we have said in the past, Israel will be ready to return to the negotiating table without any preconditions only when Syria abandons the way of terror," Shalom said.

Shalom said there are currently discussions taking place in the UN Security Council to draft another resolution, in addition to Security Council resolution 1559 that called for Syria to remove its troops from Lebanon. Despite these moves, Shalom said, Syria is continue to work to put together a new government in Lebanon, something he said demonstrates Syria's determination to continue to exert absolute control in Lebanon.

Shalom also said that 10 days ago Iranian President Mohammad Khatami visited Syria to talk about further cooperation between the two countries.

World pressure on these two "terrorist states" is critical right now, Shalom said. The foreign minister said it is a "pity" that the European Union intends to initial an association agreement with Syria in two days.

"I call on Europe to strengthen the international front against terror and not allow Syrian to engage in a policy of divide and rule, and by so doing avoid having to answer to [the world] for its support for terrorism. A continuation of the international pressure on Syria, that will cause it to abandon terrorism, will bring them more swiftly to the negotiating table with Israel," he said.

Regarding Iran's nuclear program, Shalom said that Europe plans to offer Iran a package this week that includes "sticks and carrots." According to this plan, if Iran will abandon its uranium enrichment program, the EU will grant them a number of benefits.

"We, of course, are opposed to giving any incentives to a country that publicly tries to attain nuclear arms, which will threaten the entire world. Iran is trying to buy time, and the international community needs to act in a suitable manner to stop this. We call for the [Iranian] issue to be brought to the UN Security Council [for possible sanctions] in November."

In another cabinet development, the ministers approved the appointment of Science and Technology Minister Ilan Shalgi as Environment Minister, to replace Yehudit Naot, who formally quite the cabinet on Sunday because of health reasons. Naot, who announced her intention to resign in September, is battling cancer.

"Yehudit Naot informed me, to my great sadness, that she is quitting her position because of illness," Sharon said. "Minister Naot excelled in her job and raised environmental issues to the highest level." Sharon said Naot has displayed great courage in fighting her illness.

Shinui is slated to hold a meeting Thursday to name a replacement for Shalgi, who has served as Minister of Science and Technology since the cabinet mini-reshuffle in July.

Iran ready to discuss nuclear issue "without conditions": official

www.chinaview.cn 2004-10-18 00:07:31

TEHRAN, Oct. 17 (Xinhua) -- Iran on Sunday said it was ready tohold negotiations on its nuclear program "without any conditions",but Tehran could not be forced to do anything, the official IRNAnews agency reported.

"Iran is ready to hold talks about its nuclear issues withoutany conditions, but the outcome depends on the approach of bothsides," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi was quoted assaying.

"We held fruitful talks with the Europeans in the past days andexpect to continue the negotiations in the near future," Asefisaid.

He added that "Europe should take note that mutual respect andconfidence is required to reach a satisfactory result. TheEuropeans will soon realize that the trend should be followed upand there is no way to get away with it."

"They should actually accept that they cannot force Iran intoanything," Asefi underlined.

He also defended Iran's insistence on the resumption ofactivities related to uranium enrichment and linked Tehran'sfurther decisions to result of the negotiations with the Europe. "It is not a question to continue the enrichment process, butrather to restore our undeniable right," he said. "The continued voluntary suspension of enrichment processdepends upon the outcome of the negotiations," Asefi said. The International Atomic Energy Agency adopted a resolution lastmonth, which urges Iran to suspend all of the activities related touranium enrichment and fully cooperate with the inspectors to clearup all related issues.

The resolution has been criticized and rejected by Iran, whichtermed it as "illegal".

Tehran has denied US accusation of developing nuclear weapons,asserting that it is politically motivated and Iran's nuclearresearch is fully peaceful.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=9952

Iran's strongman plots comeback

As radical-conservative elements in Iranian parliament seek to preserve the state's dominant role in the economy, Iranian politician Aliakbar Hashemi Rafsanjani opposes them in a move analysts say is designed to catapult him to the presidency next year.

By Kamal Nazer Yasin for EurasiaNet (15/10/04)

A pitched political battle is raging in Iran over control of economic policy. Radical-conservative elements in the Iranian parliament are seeking to preserve the state's dominant role in the economy. They are opposed by prominent Iranian politician, Aliakbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Political analysts in Tehran say Rafsanjani wants to use the political dispute as a stepping stone to the presidency in 2005. Rafsanjani is a pragmatist among Iranian conservatives and is one of giants of the Islamic republican era, having served as parliament speaker from 1980-1989 and president from 1989-1997. He has maintained a low political profile in recent years. However, Rafsanjani has continued to wield immense influence, operating in the shadows as the head of the Expediency Council, one of the country's unelected political oversight bodies.

A bitter privatization dispute

Over the past two weeks, the Expediency Council has become embroiled in a bitter dispute with parliament over the privatization of state-owned assets. A hard-line faction that has seized control of parliament's agenda has been pushing legislation that would drastically curtail executive power and effectively retain state control over the economy. On 2 October, Rafsanjani engineered an Expediency Council decision that trumps the parliamentary effort to preserve much of Iran's current economic structure.

The Council's decision provided for changes to Article 44 of the Iranian constitution, which at present mandates that the state play a dominant role in key economic sectors. The move paves the way for privatization of inefficient enterprises, which consume a large portion of the state budget. "All major industries, manufacturing and service sectors will be ceded to the private sector in a bid to prevent the state sector from being a big employer," said a statement issued by the Expediency Council. One of the few sectors not covered by the privatization decision is broadcast and print media.

Tinkering with the constitution

Tinkering with the constitution is highly unusual, but within the Expediency Council's prerogatives, political observers said. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the authority to overturn the council's decision, but he is unlikely to do so, analysts added. Prior to the council's decision, radical-conservative legislators, who seek to rekindle the revolutionary fervor that created the Islamic republic in 1979, appeared poised to seize the political high ground in Tehran.

Rafsanjani's action via the Expediency Council is widely seen as having stopped the radical-conservatives' momentum. It is also being hailed by centrists and reformists as a move that could salvage Iran's economy. "The intervention by the Expediency Council is an unprecedented decision, for revitalizing the economy," a reformist government spokesman, Abdullah Ramezanzadeh, said at a 4 October news conference.

Undermining Islamic republican ideals

Iranian centrists and reformists, as well as influential members of the conservative establishment, hope that large-scale privatization will help the country attract billions in foreign investment, and lead to the modernization of Iran's energy infrastructure. A retooled infrastructure could stimulate job creation, thus easing the country's crushing unemployment problem. According to some estimates, Iran will need to create at least 700,000 jobs per year in coming years just to keep pace with the growth rate of young people coming of working age.

The radical-conservatives in parliament are actively trying to discourage foreign investment, mainly by seeking to place restrictions on the government's ability to negotiate international trade deals. Outside investment, the radical-conservatives apparently believe, could undermine the Islamic republican ideals that they seem intent on restoring. Accordingly, media outlets controlled by Iranian hardliners condemned the Expediency Council's decision. "The Expediency Council's decision on Article 44 of the Constitution is a grave mistake," said a 10 October editorial published by the ultra-conservative Jomhoori Islami newspaper. "Any modification of the Constitution by the council lacks legal legitimacy."

Casting himself as Iran's 'savior'

Meanwhile, hardliners have launched a whisper campaign designed to discourage Rafsanjani from running for president, playing up reports that the former speaker and his family members have engaged in improper business dealings. Political analysts in Tehran say that Rafsanjani's recent maneuverings are designed to aid a bid for the presidency in 2005. In mounting his quiet campaign, Rafsanjani is attempting to cast his himself as Iran's "savior" from retrograde radical-conservatives. In keeping with his cagey political style, however, Rafsanjani is publicly adopting the stance of reluctant politician. "I am disinclined to run for office [the presidency]," he said in comments published on 9 October by the Hambastegi daily. "However, if Islam and the country come under threat, I will not hesitate to rise to the occasion."

Rafsanjani's candidacy stands to gain support from Iran's managerial class, moderate conservatives and elements of the clergy and armed forces. Ironically, the realization of his presidential ambitions in 2005 may depend on reformists, who during the 1997 presidential election campaign, won by incumbent Mohammad Khatami, heaped scorn on Rafsanjani's political legacy.

Reformists in a state of disarray

Reformists now find themselves in a state of disarray, having been routed in a political battle with hardliners, culminating in the parliamentary elections last February, in which conservative elements won a dominating majority of seats. A consensus reformist candidate for president has failed to materialize. Thus, many reformists may at least consider throwing their support behind Rafsanjani.

Reformists continue to view Rafsanjani as an unscrupulous politician, ready to sacrifice any policy position for the sake of personal political aggrandizement. Yet, at the same time, some reformists admit that he may be the "lesser evil" candidate - someone more likely to steer a centrist political course. Others see him as one of Iran's few politicians with the skills needed to address not only the country's domestic political and economic turmoil, but also the mounting international crisis over Iran's nuclear program. Rafsanjani at present appears the odds-on favorite to capture the election. Whether he can be effective as chief executive, however, remains uncertain. His relatively narrow political support base, combined with reformists' skepticism and the bitter radical-conservative opposition, means that he would likely face draining policy fights in the future. But as one analyst said: "Those who underestimate Heshemi's [Rafsanjani's] prodigious skills do so at their own peril."

Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.

http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=26161&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs

Iran's upcoming presidential elections

Saturday, October 16, 2004

LONDON, Oct 16 (IranMania) Since last week when former Iranian premiere, Engineer Mir Hussein Mousavi firmly and officially rejected the calls for standing in the upcoming presidential elections a new wave of political developments emerged in Iran leading to a new round of consultations concerning the probable right and left candidates.

Many are talking about the candidacy of former parliament speaker, Mehdi Karroubi besides the repeated calls on ex-president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The other probable aspirants are secretary of Iran's Islamic Participation Front, Mohammad Reza Khatami, Vice President, Mohammad Reza Aref, Tehran's conservative MP, Ahmad Tavakkoli, former head of Iran's state broadcasting organization, Ali Larijani, former Foreign Minister, Ali Akbar Velayati and Tehran's mayor, Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_17-10-2004_pg4_18

Iranian MPs move to stop Rafsanjani presidency bid

Hardline MPs collecting signatures to propose a bill to prevent anyone more than 65 years of age from standing

TEHRAN: Iran's conservative MPs are drumming up support for a bill that would bar influential former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from standing for the post again next year, newspapers reported on Saturday.

Mid-ranking cleric Rafsanjani, 70, is styled as a pragmatic conservative, whose 1989-1997 presidency was characterised by modest economic and cultural liberalisation. Rafsanjani has said he would stand for the presidency in summer 2005 if there were no other suitable candidates. Radical conservatives in parliament, who came to power in late May after thousands of reformist candidates were banned, have stubbornly resisted privatisations, foreign investment and greater social freedoms

Newspapers reported hardline MPs Ali Ahmadi and Reza Talainik were collecting signatures to propose a bill to stop anyone more than 65 years old from standing, a further sign of rifts opening within the conservative camp of oil-rich Iran.

"The suggestion is that those who initiated the draft plan did so to stop people like Rafsanjani who is 70...and pave the way for the candidacy of the so-called right-wingers," wrote the Jomhuri-ye Eslami daily. Rafsanjani heads the Expediency Council, Iran's top legislative arbitration body, that earlier this month overturned a key plank of Iran's constitution to allow large-scale sales of state assets.

This rebuffed parliamentarians who had spent their first few months in power unravelling a slew of planned privatisations and foreign investment deals.

Liberal President Mohammad Khatami steps down in 2005. His attempts to push through sweeping economic and social reforms having been largely frustrated by hardliners. The reformist candidate of choice had been Mirhossein Mousavi, a prime minister during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, but he renounced his candidacy earlier this month.

"After Mirhossein Mousavi, the only candidate who can challenge the conservatives is Abkar Hashemi Rafsanjani," said Ali Akbar Mousavi-Khoeini, a member of the League of Combatant Clerics, a reformist party. Prominent hardliners tipped for the presidency are Ali Akbar Velayati, an ex-foreign minister, and Ali Larijani, former head of the state broadcast media. They are now both advisers to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Chief nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani is keeping his cards close to his chest. reuters

Russia wants Iran to come clean on nukes

AP[ MONDAY, OCTOBER 18, 2004 12:42:42 AM ]

MOSCOW: Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said on Sunday that Iran should make stronger efforts to assuage international concerns about its nuclear programme.

Mr Lavrov said that Iran should ratify a protocol it signed last year, envisaging additional inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Iran must also abandon uranium enrichment, he added. “The IAEA would like to see more gestures encouraging greater trust in the Iranian nuclear programme, and Iran must make these gestures,” Mr Lavrov said.

The IAEA, which is the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog agency, is investigating nearly two decades of covert nuclear activity by Iran. Tehran maintains its programme is meant to generate electricity, but the US claims it is a weapons programme.

An IAEA meeting last month demanded that Iran stop all activities related to uranium enrichment — a technology that could be used to make weapons.

It also called on Tehran to accelerate co-operation with agency inspectors probing past and present nuclear activities and suggested defiance could lead to penalties, including possible referral to the UN Security Council at the next board meeting in November.

Russia has repeatedly emphasised that Iran has the right to develop a peaceful nuclear energy programme, but Moscow has urged Iran to voluntarily halt all efforts to enrich uranium as a sign of goodwill and to show greater openness to IAEA inspectors.

Mr Lavrov also said Sunday that a Russian-built nuclear reactor in the Iranian city of Bushehr, which is set to be launched in ’05, hasn’t caused IAEA’s concern.

Mr Lavrov said that Moscow and Tehran have yet to sign agreements on shipping nuclear fuel to Iran and returning the spent fuel to Russia. The agreements have been delayed repeatedly.

The US fears that that the $800m Bushehr deal could help Tehran build nuclear weapons. Moscow says that having Iran ship spent nuclear fuel back to Russia will make any such project impossible.

pong

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