Posted on 10/17/2004 1:45:49 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
COLUMBUS, Ohio—Is it time for Democrats to panic? If you're a John Kerry supporter, here's some bad news to chew on: Despite winning all three debates according to opinion polls, Kerry hasn't taken the horse-race lead in a single poll that's been released since the third debate, and he seems to be trending the wrong way. Time polled voters on Thursday and Friday and turned up a statistical tie among likely voters, 48 percent for President Bush, 46 percent for Kerry, with a 4 point margin of error. Newsweek's poll, taken over the same period with a 4 point margin of error, shows Kerry with only 44 percent among likely voters. Bush gets 50 percent. When the Zogby tracking poll added the day after the debate to its sample, Bush's lead over Kerry increased from 46-45 to 48-44, with a 2.9 point margin of error. The Washington Post daily tracking poll for Friday, Oct. 15, shows Bush opening a 50 to 47 lead over Kerry; the 3 point margin is equal to the poll's margin of error.
Oh, and there's one more poll to report. The Post asked voters on Thursday night whether Kerry's comment during the debate about Mary Cheney was "inappropriate." Not many undecideds here: 64 percent said inappropriate, while 33 percent said appropriate. With a 6 point margin of error, the best statistical case for Kerry is that he offended only 58 percent of the electorate. Of course, just because Kerry offended people doesn't he mean changed anybody's vote, just as winning a debate doesn't necessarily translate into ballots. But if you're searching for the Occam's Razor explanation for Kerry's small but noticeable slide in the polls since Wednesday, his comment about Mary Cheney is probably it.
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.msn.com ...
More likely, more and more people are seeing Kerry for what he really is and know that America does not need or want a mealymouthed, appeaser of a Massachusetts Liberal as president and commander-in-chief.
Good article, in a know your enemy sort of way.
There is a long time to go before the election, and events could still impact both ways. The recent polls are encouraging, however.
I find myself gloomily thinking about the disaster that a Kerry victory would bring, and cheer myself up thinking about the look on Dan Rather's biased mug as reports that W gets four more.
We need to work harder every day.
"Anybody but Bush" can't stand when the alternative would be, as you so correctly describe, "a mealymouthed, appeaser of a Massachusetts Liberal as president and commander-in-chief."
Add to that, a man with mean nasty streak and the voters will turn away.
ROFLMAO
Frankly, even more than Bush winning another 4, I relish watching the complete meltdown of the left when Bush wins.
To witness the apoplectic NY Times editorials would be priceless.
I don't know.
When they feel like it, I guess.
If Kerry were surging, we'd probably have that info now.
Bump!
Bump!
There is some good news for Democrats, beyond the usual caveats about polls and statistics: The Post poll, taken Wednesday through Friday, shows Kerry with a 10 point lead, 53 to 43, over Bush among likely voters in 13 battleground states.
This is somewhat alarming, yet also encouraging in a way. How can Bush be slightly ahead in all the national polls and, at the same time, be 10 points behind in the battleground states? Well, recent polls have Bush leading in many of his safe states by monster margins. He leads Alabama 56-32, Texas 60-37, Kansas 57-38, Montana 55-34, Kentucky 57-38, Oklahoma 63-33, Tennessee 58-39, etc. Meanwhile, some of Kerry's safe states have either turned into battleground states or have seen margins go from double digits to single digits.
The danger for Kerry is that he loses a number of Gore states because there are more and more of them he has to spend time and resources defending.
The danger for Bush is that he could lose 10 or more states by fewer than 5 percentage points each. He could win the nation's popular vote by 1 percent or more, but lose the electoral college because Kerry has targeted his voter-registration drives to states like Ohio and Florida - worth 20 and 27 electoral votes, respectively.
I think you are absolutely right. A few weeks ago it was easy to not make a decision since you had a month or more to decide. Now people are having to look at both candidates and make a decision. They are looking carefully at Kerry and seeing him for what you described.
I think Bush has successfully tarred Kerry as a "Massachusetts liberal," even though the latter are still trying to figure out what exactly that means.
Luckily, the rest of us know precisely what it means..... don't we Uncle Teddy?
Somebody said "Kerry is Teddy on the South Beach Diet."
I thought Bush was running fairly strong in the battleground states. Has something changes in the last couple weeks?
He may've been a smooth talker in the debates, but the way in which he answered virtually every question was to immediately start harping on Bush, no matter what the question. Then he'd assure us that he has a "plan." He sounds like a fricking broken record, and if you'll read articles about his campaigning since then, he's not slacking up with the repetition.
I believe he's taken his rhetoric too far. When a question pops about flu vaccines, and he manages to lay even that directly at Bush's feet, he sounds like an idiot to anyone except his hardcore supporters IMO. You name it, it's Bush's fault, according to Lurch. To hear him tell it, Bush has single-handedly caused everything bad that has happpened in the world in the past four years. Bush personally spent the billions of dollars in the deficit, as if we don't have a Congress. Bush personally did it all. I think this idiotic rhetoric is what's starting to widen the gap; plainly put, he sounds like a fool.
MM
Yes,,, we can see a ( DEAN ) moment coming from Kerry very soon.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAggggggggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhh
Yes, we will see him do his DEAN moment, and trow some chairs during a live TV rally.
Let's hope there is a crowd of Bush supporters in the crowd, chanting ( SIGN THE 180 SIGN THE 180 SIGN THE 180 ).
AAAAAAGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
In truth, an approval rating doesn't show intent to vote either. Some of those who disapprove of the President's job performance may be angry that he hasn't hit back harder or hit the terrorists harder this year.
Give Our President A Mandate! Get Out The Vote!
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