Posted on 10/23/2004 8:51:03 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
/begin my translation
Episode 1) At the end of last June, a research fellow on N. Korea working at a government agency was told an amazing news by a high level Chinese figure, whom he is quite familiar with, "Huh Chang-suk and his colleagues were arrested in last April. They were charged with the attempted assassination of Kim Jong-il." The researcher went on to tell this reporter, "As far as I know, the Chinese also maintains good contact with our intelligence agency. He conveyed all the relevant information to the agency, and the agency subsequently made a report on this event."
Episode 2)In the middle of last July, a defector, who used to be a N. Korean official, was approached by somebody from an intelligence agency. The defector was asked if he heard about Huh Chang-suk. According to the man from the agency, Huh Chang-suk is a nephew of Huh Dahm and a business manager working on Sino-N. Korean trade. Huh was arrested in connection with Ryongchon Explosion. He wanted to secure detailed personal information on Huh and the defector's personal opinions as well.
Episode 3) At the end of last July, a researcher at a government agency, who analyzes N. Korea-related intelligence met his counterpart from an intelligence agency, who let him in on the content of a report, which said, 'Ryongchon Explosion was an attempt to assassinate Kim Jong-il. The ring-leader of this plot, Huh Chang-suk, was arrested and executed right after the incident.' The man from the intelligence asked the researcher to evaluate the validity of this report.
Words had been coming out from multiple sources in last July that intelligence agency had filed a report to the effect that Ryongchon Explosion was an attempt on Kim Jong-il's life. The gist of the report was that the nephew of Huh Dahm, who died in 1991, and was the former head of National Peace and Unification Committee, was arrested and executed along with eight others after the explosion."
Intelligence agency cross-checked information with Chinese, collecting more details. In order to find more about Huh Chang-suk, they also interview defectors who were high ranking figures or from privileged families. Those involved were asked to keep it secret. Due to the extraordinary nature of the subject in question, however, some had trouble keeping it under wraps, and words eventually leaked out. Around last August, words had been circulating among government research agencies on N. Korea and a small number of educated N. Korean defectors, saying, "A member of a privileged family was behind the Ryongchon Explosion."
According to this report,
Huh Chang-suk, as has been mentioned, is a nephew of Huh Dahm. Huh Dahm was a Foreign Minister of N. Korea in 70's. He was in the regime's inner circle, a confidant of Kim Il-sung, then the leader of N. Korea and the father of Kim Jong-il. Furthermore, Huh Dahm's wife and Huh Chang-suk's aunt is Kim Jung-sook. Kim Jung-sook is also a cousin of Kim Jong-il
Huh family is part of powerful 'Royal Family' in N. Korea. The late Huh Dahm was a powerful figure. His wife Kim Jung-sook is still a regime's ultimate insider.
Huh Chang-suk and his colleagues made frequent trips to China and other countries for business. They know what is going on outside better than anybody else in N. Korea. Now in their 40's, they are a group of proud and confident people. However, since they are not from Kim Jong-il's immediate family, they are unhappy about the fact that their chances of rising to the top is remote. This is a typical reaction from 'Peripheral Royal Family."
According to N. Korean defectors, the most direct contributing factor must have been the movement to install the third generation successor. The most likely successor is Kim Jung-chol, Kim Jung-il's second son, who is only 23 years old. Sandwiched between Kim Jong-il in his 60's and Kim Jung-chol in his 20's, these technocrats have enough reason to be resentful.
A completely different Chinese source revealed to a researcher in a S. Korean think-tank that China 'condoned' Kim Jong-il's assassination.
According to him, a group of pro-Chinese N. Korean figures picked April 22 as the D-day(for assassination of Kim Jong-il. It was the day Kim Jong-il was to return from his visit to China.) They approached the top leadership of China to see if they can secure Chinese support. With that, China decided to work on Kim Jong-il for the last time. When Kim Jong-il visited China, China trotted out all top officials, including Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Wen Jabao to entice Kim Jong-il with hefty packages of economic aids and business joint ventures. Still, Kim Jong-il snubbed Chinese on nuclear issue in the end.
This caused Chinese to abandon the support of Kim Jong-il. They would rather have another N. Korean regime friendly to China. This also fits better with Chinese grand design in N. East China, so-called North East Initiative.
Chinese told the plotters that Chinese would look the other way if they go ahead with their plan. With that, the plotters followed through, resulting in Ryongchon Explosion.
Now, the story from the first sources and the one from the second can fit together nicely. Huh Chang-suk worked on Sino-N. Korean trades. His uncle, Huh Dahm, had good personal connection to the late Deng Xiao-ping of China and other top figures. Huh Chang-suk could have gone into this job thanks to his uncle's extensive connection. Thus, we can reasonably conclude that Huh Chang-suk is one of those pro-Chinese N. Korean figures who approached the top Chinese leadership with the assassination plan.
It would also explain how somebody like Huh Chang-suk, who is not from N. Korean military nor has powerful political base, would dare to carry out Kim Jong-il's assassination. They must have been convinced that they have the blessing of China, which wants pro-Chinese regime in N. Korea, and could pour in Chinese military to help keep things under control if something happens. In short, it was "pro-Chinese coup d'etat."
/end my translation
It is interesting to note that all sources are Chinese. Chinese are volunteering all this information to S. Korea, including their involvement. This analsis pretty much fits my speculation, that is, a conspiracy to kill Kim Jong-il with Chinese hand in it. It also explains many things N. Korea and China have been doing around Sino-N. Korean border. Chinese troops are not there just to hold off influx of refugees, even though that is surely part of their duties. N. Korean troops are not there just for catching escaping refugees, either. N. Koreans are rather frantically beefing up the security of Sino-N. Korean border. N. Korean troops have to guard against possible Chinese military action. On top of that, there could be cross-border covert operations to destabilize N. Korean regime. Operatives can blend into stream of refugees or visitors.
The killer blow to N. Korean regime could most likely come from its backdoor, if U.S. turns up heat on China.
Ping!
Curiouser...and curiouser...
So, could this mean that China would hold sway in North Korea and what would that mean? Pretty big question but your thoughts would be appreciated.
China would want to install solid pro-Chinese regime in N. Korea, who would serve as a buffer against U.S. In due time, China would assimilate N. Korea economically, and eventually politically. For near term, China wants N. Korea to be a loyal satellite state.
The second invasion of N Korea by China in the past 50 years might be a different type.
This is getting very interesting.
This is why he's so ronry.
5.56mm
Yeah, Kim ticked off Chinese, who can choke his regime to death. China is now doing slow strangulation, a la anaconda. For example, Chinese drastically cut down food aids since last spring. If China ever completely shut down oil and food, N. Korea would most likely go down.
Chinese would only do this because they fear Japanese and Taiwanese nukes.
If something happens in N. Korea, they move in and take control. Ostensibly it would a peace-keeping mission. But it would be more than that. What did Red Army do after it move to Poland? It installed a pro-Soviet regime.
My first question was going to be is this a pro-ChiCom/pro-North paper?
This is not believable at all that.
So inth end, it's a lose, lose situation for us.
I like to see North Korea go, but I can't trust China either. They might install another Communist government if they invade North Korea.
Yes.
The ChiComs never want N. Korea to become less communist or more free than China. There has to be a worse regime out there that they can look better in comparison and so they can contiune to extort the west with promises their of "influence" on the worse rogue regime. The ChiComs would also like to be able to exploit thw people in N. Korea to make plastiuc trinkets for 1 cent an hour.
You are probably correct. To the N. Koreans it would be a choice between fighting or eating.
5.56mm
Re: "Chinese would only do this because they fear Japanese and Taiwanese nukes."
That fits in with my armchair analysis. North Korea with nukes is of no advantage to China. Like you said, it is only encouraging South Korea, Japan and Taiwan to go nuclear also.
How do you kill someone with a Chinese blessing?
Are Chinese blessings really that lethal??
;-)
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