Posted on 10/27/2004 1:32:44 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
This is a brief response and note to Kathryn's bringing to our attention Jay Costs points (below). I also think that Bush is doing much better in Ohio than the MSM gives him credit for; the MSM are spinning. And this explains why Bush was able to stay away from the state for ten days; he has a chance to take Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, and still hold Ohio. Rove isn't an idiot and they haven't given up on Ohio. Jay mentions many good reasons for thinking this and he is essentially correct. I want to emphasize a few things, only some of which he mentions.
First, as he mentions, Ohio is very much of a GOP state, it is not a swing state; the Democratic party is hardly to be found; and there is no interesting state-wide Demo candidate running for any position that in any way will help Kerry; Voinovich will be re-elected with about 63% of the vote.
Second, the social-moral issues (gay marriage, abortion) and security concerns have a huge impact in Ohio, especially among women and African-Americans. This is even reflected in nation-wide polls. Kerry cannot break even with Bush with female voters; he needs to get at least 10% more of them than Bush and Bush will pick up about 13% of the black vote.
Third, only fools will think that the roughly 800,000 newly registered voters are all going for Kerry; they will end up breaking about 50-50; pay attention to the large number of voters the GOP has registered, these guys have not been napping for the last five months; there are new voters in rural counties too, they're not all up in Cuyahoga County.
Fourth, Bush will get a much larger percentage of Independents than some folks think. Fifth, there is no enthusiasm for Kerry, even among his supporters. Nobody likes this guy, and his wife seems to justify the worst tendencies of the French Revolution; it is impossible for people to envision her in the White House as first lady.
I will predict that Bush will win the state by one or two points less than "Issue 1" (no gay marriage) will pass with: "Issue 1" will pass by about 6%, and Bush will take Ohio by 4 or 5 percent.
It is my considered opinion that the Democrats and the Kerry campaign are extremely desperate in Ohio.
And I understand why.
I agree with this article -
The only thing the Socialist Democrats have going for them lately are Lawyers - and the fraud issue - As long as the Repubs. and the Justice Dept. keep track - all should go well in Nov.
my thoughts -
I hope this is right, but I'm still going to worry anyway, because I'm a worrier.
I think that Bush wins with 300+ EV's.
Here in Ohio all my friends are pro Bush
The ethnics up here just don't relate to east-coast elitists.
-Eric
I hope they're right.
Excellent post, and I fully agree. Don't underestimate Dem efforts to cheat, but we will be right on their backs when they try to do it.
Heinz Kerry=Madame Defarge
Finally, the press is catching up to what some of us figured out a little while ago.
The Bush team isn't going to jeopardize a needed state to chase a fairytale coated in blue. They campaigned in Ohio, pulled it to their column, than swung out to Blue to attempt to swing them to the red column. All the while Kerry could only pull close in Ohio and this with almost non-stop campaigning and foolish photo op with gooseblood.
They'll put it safely away this week and weekend, while Kerry is forced on defense in blue states.
The Bush team rarely plays Defense. Offense is the winning strategy nearly everytime. The only concern in Ohio has been fraud, and will remain a concern, but the campaign knows what the Dems are up to. Foolish to consider they aren't prepared for this, either.
This makes me feel better about the election.
Metesky, it is not true is it? Heinz Kerry=Madame Defarge.
Dah, President Bush will win in a landslide. Just go vote! Everyone but the people are against President Bush.
I wish we had the president's schedule for the next several days. I know today was PA, OH, MI; Thursday is MN, OH, PA; coming back to MN on Saturday; and heard a stop in NH over the weekend, finishing in Florida???
Can anyone correct me or elaborate?
Interesting. That is what they said about Ronald Reagan: no one wanted him but the People.
Nobody likes this guy, and his wife seems to justify the worst tendencies of the French Revolution; it is impossible for people to envision her in the White House as first lady.
LOL - Those NRO guys sure can turn a phrase.
Issue 1 will pass with well more than 60%.
This year, the Repubs are prepared. They'll be there right when the Dems cry fraud.
And the MSM won't be able to bury the facts this time, they have serious competition.
I've heard that he's finishing in Detroit and Youngstown -- both Democrat bastions.
That should tell us something...
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