Posted on 10/27/2004 5:09:12 PM PDT by ambrose
Posted on Wed, Oct. 27, 2004
Poll: Nader could cost Kerry in Minnesota
FREDERIC J. FROMMER
Associated Press
WASHINGTON - A new poll by the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute found independent candidate Ralph Nader polling at 5 percent, enough to possibly cost Democrat John Kerry the state.
The poll, which showed Nader with more support than other recent polls, had President Bush and Kerry in a statistical dead heat: Bush at 47 percent and Kerry at 44 percent, within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
It also contained some good news for Kerry. Independent voters put domestic issues at the top of their list, and they favored Kerry 45 percent to 29 percent on handling domestic issues, such as the economy and health care.
On the question of Nader, however, the poll found potential trouble for Kerry. In a two-way race, Kerry led Bush among the crucial independent voters, 47 percent to 39 percent.
But in a race that includes Nader and Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik, independents split evenly between Kerry and Bush, with 15 percent choosing Nader and 1 percent choosing Badnarik.
Minnesota is one of several key battleground states that could help decide the election.
The survey of 690 likely Minnesota voters was conducted Oct. 21-26 by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut.
"The Nader threat is real," said Larry Jacobs, director of the Humphrey Institute's 2004 Elections Project, which commissioned the poll.
"There was a complacency among a lot people that Nader wasn't getting the kind of support in national polls that he had last time, and he was fading. That may be true nationally, but he's going to have pockets of support."
Jacobs noted that Nader received 5 percent of the vote in Minnesota in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore narrowly won the state over Bush.
"This is a state that regularly votes for 3rd-party candidates," he said.
Jacobs said that in 2000, Nader drew from progressive voters.
"This time he's draining independents who are anti-incumbent voters," he said. "It's a different group of voters, but it's the same overall damage to the Democratic ticket."
Kerry spokesman Bill Burton said he is confident that people who want a change who will ultimately vote for Kerry.
"People know that if you're voting for anyone but John Kerry, you obviously do increase the likelihood of sending George Bush back to the White House," he said.
Burton also said other polls showed Nader with lower levels of support.
A poll last week by the St. Paul Pioneer Press, for example, showed Nader getting 2 percent, compared to 47 percent for Bush and 45 percent for Kerry (with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.)
The previous week, a Star Tribune of Minneapolis poll also put Nader at 2 percent, with Kerry leading Bush 48 percent to 43 percent (the margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points).
In a statement, Bush campaign spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt said: "This president has made serious gains and John Kerry is on defense in a state that has not elected a Republican for president since 1972. We believe President Bush can make history in Minnesota."
The poll also found that Bush had a 13-point lead over Kerry over the handling of terrorism, and a 5-point lead over the handling of Iraq.
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Everybody said Nader wouldnt matter nationally and thats right but ive been saying for the longest time that Nader could cost him a state and it looks like MN might be the one
How glorious the map is going to look on election night.
You remember all the red in 2000's map???
Add New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania to it.
I don't know why they are calling independent voters "crucial". If they've already decided who to vote for, they are no longer independent or undecided, and Bush still leads by 2.
Minnesota is critical too.. Bush could slip Ohio and still not miss a beat!!
DUmmies are not going to know what hit them on Tuesday night.
KERRY MAKES ME WANNA RALPH! Attention Democrats: bring your doggie bags on November 2nd!
KERRY MAKES ME WANNA RALPH! Attention Democrats: bring your doggie bags on November 2nd!
After what Perot did to GHB, this would be a sweet justice.
Well then Kerry should immediately go to Minnesota and explain why HE is the real anti-capitalist, anti-jobs candidate who will bring crushing regulation to all industries in the name of the environment.
If he's too busy, he can give that same speech in Ohio, Pennsylvania or Michigan.
I'll say this much...Kerry's ad count has gone WAY up in Minnesota...I've seen no less than 10 in the last 45 minutes
I sure do wish Ralphie could have stayed on the Ohio ballot. I'm realy worried about OH, but MN would go a long way towards offsetting a potential loss there.
Bush is leading in every freaking poll in Minnesota. I love it! Kerry absolutely cannot ignore it now.
PA doesn't look too good Josh, Bush is polling better in NJ.
But this is good news about Minnesota.
BTW, I just got a call from BC04 HQ in Des Moines. Bush will be in Des Moines on Monday. I think that FL is definitely locked up. He may need some shoring up in OH, but could surge with Ahnold's help.
Kerry is scrambling to cover his blue bases.. He's toast!
Hey, one of you Freepers take a look at this for John Thune and then post it like it should be. I am too computer dumb to do it.
http://www.johnthune.com/game/dueling21.html
It is a real good old fashion hooooot! Everyone will love it.
Extraordinary news!! Didnt the last Humphrey poll show Kerry up in MN? So GWB has gained. I think he might just win it and we are seeing a trend in his direction in several states.
Speaking of HHH, the 1968 election is the first one I remember well. My parents and most adults I knew were for Humphrey. That's back when Dems still stood for some traditional values, and they would defend America. That sure changed in 1972.
Interestingly, Nader appears to be hurting President Bush as far as the national popular vote is concerned.
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