Posted on 10/28/2004 11:07:29 AM PDT by SoDak
Republicans John Thune and Larry Diedrich have overcome double-digit deficits to draw ahead of their Democratic rivals, Sen. Tom Daschle and Rep. Stephanie Herseth, according to an independent poll.
The Republicans' leads were between about 1 and 2.5 percentage points - within the poll's 3.5 percent margin of error - and pollster John Zogby of Zogby International warned that the Senate and House races in South Dakota were too close to call. "We've got two competitive races here," he said.
Libertarian House candidate Terry Begay polled less than 1 percent.
The Rapid City Journal, KOTA-TV and other state media outlets commissioned the poll, which Zogby conducted Monday and Tuesday. Pollsters interviewed 800 likely voters.
Thune led Daschle 48 percent to 45.5 percent in the Senate race, Zogby said. Diedrich led Herseth to 47.2 percent to 46.1 percent.
"It's all in the hands of independent voters," Zogby said, noting the high number of undecided voters who are not members of a political party.
Earlier this year, Daschle and Herseth had double-digit leads.
Zogby's results also would be a huge turnaround from a Mason-Dixon poll conducted last week for the Sioux Falls Argus Leader and KELO-TV, which showed Daschle with a two-point lead and Herseth with a four-point lead.
The two polls used different methods to determine the ratio of Democratic to Republican likely voters. Daschle campaign spokesman Dan Pfeiffer called Zogby's method "questionable."
Pfeiffer said a Daschle poll put the Democrat up 50 percent to 48 percent.
Thune campaign spokesman Dick Wadhams, who also has been critical of Zogby polls, said he believed the results confirmed "momentum" for Thune, but he said, "This race goes down to the wire, and John Thune will campaign incessantly until 7 p.m. Tuesday." A Republican Party poll put Thune ahead by 4 percentage points.
Diedrich said Wednesday night the poll confirmed his own momentum. "It's following the trend we're seeing," he said. "It's a matter of getting to know me."
Herseth spokesman Russ Levsen, like Pfeiffer, said Zogby had underestimated Democratic likely voters. "Those numbers are far different from everything we've seen, but we've always thought this would be a close race," he said. "We'll continue to run a positive race and talk about Stephanie's independent record in Congress."
Poll results can differ significantly depending on how pollsters define "likely voters." Zogby's initial report, for example, showed Thune leading Daschle by 49.6 percent to 43.9 percent, a result Pfeiffer called "absurd," adding, "No sane person in America believes this is a six-point race."
Diedrich led Herseth 48.8 percent to 44.5 percent in those first results, and Zogby said that gave even him pause.
Zogby said he arrived at those results using the ratio of Republicans to Democrats in exit polls conducted during the 2000 presidential election. Those results were 49 percent Republican and 33 percent Democrats.
Democratic turnout could have been low in that election for a number of reasons. Thune overwhelmed his Democratic opponent for the House that year, there was no Senate race and there was no significant Democratic get-out-the-vote effort.
Current voter registration in South Dakota breaks down to 47.5 percent Republican, 38.1 percent Democrat. Most of the rest are independents. The Libertarian and Constitution parties each have less than 1 percent.
On Wednesday, after reporters pointed out the discrepancy between registered voters and Zogby's estimate of "likely voters," he closed the gap to 47 percent Republicans and 35 percent Democrats. When he refigured the results, he came up with three-point advantages for both Republicans. "We decided to look at it anew," he said. He called the change "one I could easily defend."
Pfeiffer was not convinced. "No one with any knowledge of South Dakota would believe the assumptions made by Zogby."
Pfeiffer also pointed out that in the 2002 election, which Thune lost by less than 1 percent to Democrat Tim Johnson, Republican voters outnumbered Democrats by only 10.5 percent.
Zogby, who is based in Utica, N.Y., said he stood by his adjusted poll results, but he also cautioned he was not predicting the outcome of either race. "Six days from the election? God no!"
Is that sarcasm or true???
Is this a joke about Herseth, or did she really do this?
Do you have a source for this?
It's in the Argus today apparently, can't post from there. I saw it in the Daschle Vs. Thune blog.
http://www.argusleader.com/news/Thursdayarticle4.shtml
Big mistake. Why should people support a fake Republican when they can support the real one? All this will do is depress her base. It's just amazing how they'll say just anything to get elected! PANIC TIME FOR THE DEMS!
There's been the inevitable talk amongst Republicans that maybe she would switch if Daschle lost and she won. I don't think she would.
I see that now. DVT was a bit misleading. Earlier in this year, she had said though that she would lean towards Bush over Kerry during a debate.
WOW. That was a HUGE mistake. She just lost like at least 10% of her base.
I'm not a gambling man when it comes to politics, but if I were to put money on someone, it wouldn't be her.
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