Posted on 10/30/2004 12:48:57 AM PDT by Cableguy
President Bush had a slight lead over John Kerry in a newspaper's poll of Ohio voters.
The poll commissioned by The Plain Dealer for its Saturday edition showed that voters surveyed favored Bush over his Democratic challenger, 48 percent to 45 percent.
A Plain Dealer poll of the same size conducted in mid-September had the Republican incembent with 50 percent to 42 percent for Kerry.
Five percent of voters in the recent poll considered themselves undecided, down from 6 percent in September.
The survey of 1,500 likely voters, conducted Oct. 26-28 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points.
Two percent of those interviewed for the new poll favor neither Bush nor Kerry and responded "other," although no specific alternatives were offered. Ralph Nader, who attracted 2 percent in the last Plain Dealer poll, was not included in the recent one because he will not appear on the ballot.
another must ping
Very, very nice . . . but I'd still like to see W be up to at least 50-51%.
Thanks for the ping. Sweeeeeet!
Good poll for three reasons:
1) M-D polls are the best
2) It has a large sample
3) Bush's lead is outside the MOE (2.6%)
You are wrong about #3. MOE is applied to both candidates. So Bush could be 45-51 and Kerry 42-48. The spread needs to more than double MOE to be statistically significant in terms of polling.
4. Bush carries Ohio
This is good news, but I am still puzzled by the 5% undecided. If you are too dumb to figure out who you like best, JUST DON'T VOTE!!! (that is unless you finally decide to for Bush, then by all means PLEASE)!
Blah...yep you're right. I still got #1 and #2!
No the range is Bush 45.4 to 50.6
Kerry 47.6 to 42.4
So there is overlap under a pessimistic analysis. Interesting the optomistic analysis is virtually identical to the earlier Plain Dealer Poll.
Yep. Mason Dixon is the best pollster for state polls (Gallup is also supposed to be good, but they don't do many state polls) and the 1500 LV gives it a good sample.
I think Fred Barnes mentioned on Fox that Cleveland/Mason-Dixon had accurate results in previous elections.
Add to that Arnold's appearance today.
Plus the bin Laden tape.
I think Ohio will be an easy win for Bush at the end of the day. Unless all the dead people vote. But then again, we do have a Republican governor/sec state (who is black giving him more credibility) in OH.
I have a problem rationalizing the sizable improvement for Kerry (and decline for Bush) since their previous poll in September. In other polling, which insiders say doesn't accurately reflect how the state will ultimately swing, Kerry has shown leads quite a few times in quite a few polls. This has been true, and worrying to many on our side, for some time. Yet here this CPD poll, done by Mason Dixon, is touted as being worthy because of a good track record. My question is, do we really believe Kerry is somewhat surging in Ohio over the past month, while nationwide most polls are saying Dubya has opened a lead anywhere from slight to outside the margin of error?? Not to mention leads in several other battleground/nearby states to Ohio?? Not doubting the methodology, sample size, etc., necessarily, but I just feel something is missing here. Doesn't feel right to me when compared to September and all the other poll info we have, state and national.
I think many late undecideds just don't vote, as you suggested they probably shouldn't. We have a nephew like that. He is simply non-political, totally into sports. He is undecided every election and at 30 has yet to vote. Like about 50% of Americans.
Kerry has spent a lot of time and money in Ohio, so it is possible he has made some modest gains that he hasn't on the national level. It is a very tight state that is leaning Bush, but still well within striking distance for Kerry. Kerry has to pull an upset off in Ohio or Florida to have any real chance at the election. Bush can lose Ohio and still only needs to pick up Minnisota or Wiconsin to win.
Aren't the swifties running ads in OH?
Kerry has spent huge there, as you say. However, relative to spending by the Bush Campaign in other states, like Iowa and Wisconsin, I would guess Kerry's spending in those other places stacks up well. There's also PA, which many on our side bemoaned was not doable for dubya, as well as Michigan, where now our guy has gotten some encouraging polling news.
Yet, yet, yet.....here we have Ohio bucking all of this since a strong Bush result in September. Now we are reduced to cheering this poll merely for showing our guy ahead, when in reality this poll shows clear erosion for him and betterment for Kerry. I don't know, I truly don't, so I have based my instincts about Ohio on reports from the ground there.
And let me say the more exposure Kerry gets, to me the more sickening and scary he appears. So more exposure in Ohio shouldn't help him, relative to more exposure helping him in the other states. It doesn't seem to help him elsewhere, so I can't imagine why it would help him just in Ohio.
48-45 with 5 ud...wheres the other 2?
Oh i found it at the end..dang 415 in the morning..ill be glad when this thing is over
I hope we take it big cause i dont wanna see Blackwell turned into the Kathy Harris of 2004
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