[The Loan Arranger]

'Fleshing out' the candidates reactions to the Osama videotape. This is going to give the president a 3-5 point boost by Monday, wait and see...

[coconutt2000]

I know why Osama released this video. He has to quell a division in his organization. There's a power struggle and he needed this video out to thumb his nose at Bush, in order to try and solidify his base.

Osama is dead if he can't convince whoever is harboring him that he still retains control of Al Qaeda. Without Al Qaeda, Osama is useless... even as a figure head he'd be useless.

If Bush wins, Osama is screwed, and very likely he'll be handed over to us or silently killed. If Kerry wins, Osama wins and we'll probably see quick and rapid cleaning house in Al Qaeda of a few top leaders who thought they could take over with Osama out of the way.

This is a diabolical game of realpolitik and Osama is in trouble. He only has the card of fear to play, and he's got one hell of a bluffing face.

[i_am_right_of_center]

"This is going to give the president a 3-5 point boost by Monday"


Maybe- maybe not- but the fact that three years ago Bush said he wanted OBL dead or alive will be picked up by Kerry and hammered home by his minions and in tv ads.

OBL dead would have been more preferable...I think his tv appearence will have an unstable effect on the electorate.

[Prophet in the Wilderess]

If anything, it will galvanize BUSH's base more to GOTV with more drive and enthusiasm.
For Kerrys base, I think they know, that BUSH's base will be more driven to go out and vote, and they know in their minds now, that KERRYS chances are getting more slim by the moment, and they weren't to enthusiastic for him in the first place ( only the delusional are voting for him now ). I think, they are having second thoughts before they cast their votes ( no matter how much they hate BUSH, they are wondering, " CAN KERRY REALLY BE BETTER AT KEEPING US SAFE THAN BUSH ? ). Fear can sometimes override emotions of hate, and fear can cause you to focus on the matter at hand .

[Stateline]

Kerry belongs on Gilligans Island.......

[QwertyKPH]

"My opponent continues to say things he knows are not true."

Two points:

1: G.W.B. continues his use of "my opponent" instead of speaking his name. It's a brilliant strategy of subliminal non-recogonition.

2: A lesson to us all on how to call someone a liar without saying the word.

[SkyPilot]

Here it is in a synopsis:

Bin Laden gave a present to the Bush campaign.

[AlGone2001]

It'll take serious stupidity to believe OBL said anything that helps Kerry.