Posted on 10/31/2004 12:57:34 PM PST by MoonMullins
Don't know how to read this.
Follow-up comments:
1. These are daily averages for 12 states I've compiled from RCP over last week.
2. Wisconsin poll includes Zogby showing Kerry with 8-point lead; race would be tied without Zogby
3. Trend is toward Bush in 8 states, toward Kerry in 3 states; 1 state basically unchanged
Zogby is messing us the averages
Des Moines Register and Redstar Tribune are too...Of course ARG are there as is LA Times
I agree. Trend is still good.
Based on today's latest polls, and figuring tossup states going to the leading candidate, even if just by 1%.
Safe/Strong/Leaning:
Bush: 222
Kerry: 186
Slightly Leaning:
Bush: 79
Kerry: 51
Total (270 to win):
Bush: 301
Kerry: 237
By your chart, I get 27 EV trending to Kerry, 88 to Bush and Ohio up in the air.
Zogby should be in jail with Miachael Manure,Al Bore,Saddam and Bin (kerry0 Laden.Oh and Terry Mcasshole
Adding the rest of the states per RCP, I get Bush = 301 Electoral Votes, Kerry = 217 and Ohio still up for grabs. This includes giving New Jersey and Hawaii to Kerry.
Rasmussen Oct 31
Ohio B 50 K 48
Flor B 49 K 47
Minn B 48 K 47
Mich K 49 B 47
Penn K 49 B 47
Why does electoral-vote.com show Kerry with 283 right now? Is that a mistake? Someone please explain trends and whether they hold up in a period of forty-eight hours.
Because they're a liberal site that is in the tank for Kerry. They use any poll that is favorable for Kerry while delaying or ignoring polls that show Bush ahead. Right now they're pushing all the Zogsauce results.
And yet, Andrew Sullivan is referencing that site.
What happened to him? I used to think he was (mostly) on our side.
The guy running the site used a Kerry ahead by 2 Zogby for Florida.
Very nice. Check out MN and the Star-Tribune poll, that one really throws MN off the mark. Take it out and it still falls on the Kerry trend ever so slightly, but still on the Bush side of the fence.
Electoral-vote.com is nuts. Look at some of one of their calls.
NM- Mason-dixon has bush up by 4% and Zogby has Bush up there by 9%. On their map they call NM for Barely Kerry.
I think Michigan is getting out of reach. But it doesn't look like W needs it to win. In fact I can think of several ways Bush wins, but not so many for Kerry.
Here's how to read it:
Red Numbers (positive) indicate Bush is ahead. Blue Numbers (negative) indicates Kerry is ahead.
Next time I will post with Electoral Votes.
You did a good job. I like the analysis.
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