Skip to comments.Marshall claims Bush +3 in Poll to be released this afternoon
Posted on 10/31/2004 1:09:36 PM PST by VAGOP
Good news if true. No indication of what poll. Hopefully not GAllup since the PResident will hopefully have a larger lead in Gallup.
Hopefully it's ABC/WaPo beginning to show a Bush trendline.
IS ABC/WAPO due out? Otherwise, it's probably Gallup.
Unfortunately ABC/WAPO was already released at 48-48. It may be NBC/Wall St. Journal.
When does Gallup come out? Isn't that usually a Sunday or Monday poll?
who is marshall?
I think Gallup comes at 5 p.m. Eastern.
I think the Poll he is speculating on is TIME. They usually come out on Sundays
I think that if it was Gallup it would have been released on CNN during Wolf Blizer (sp?) show- that's why I think it might be NBC.
Whatever poll it is, I'll take +3. It's better than W in a "tie" or behind.
Yeah, folks, when does Gallup come out?
Yeah I'm hoping for a bigger number from Gallup than this so hopefully it is another poll. Although this is Josh Marshall so who knows, he's as partisan (and illogical) as they come
I believe Gallup is due out at 5pm. Which means if these results are Gallup the MSM will show a Kerry surge! :-(
He is spinning the ABC Note column like crazy.
who is Marshall?
If this is Gallup, it's not good news
Maybe it's CBS/NY Times?
Based on today's latest polls, and figuring tossup states going to the leading candidate, even if just by 1%.
Total (270 to win):
I hope it's not Gallup or Time. Both usually come out late Sunday, or Monday and both had Bush above 50% with a 5 point lead.
I'm sticking with 52-47 Bush.
If its gallup then its back to the 2-3 point race everyone thinks it should be. I never understood the Gallup by 11 points earlier this year.
Joshua Micah Marshall is a writer living in Washington, DC. He is a Contributing Writer for the Washington Monthly and a columnist for The Hill. His articles on politics, culture and foreign affairs have also appeared in The American Prospect, The Atlantic Monthly, The Boston Globe, The Financial Times, The Los Angeles Times, The New Republic, The New Yorker, The New York Post, The New York Times, Salon, Slate, and other publications. He has appeared on Crossfire (CNN), Hannity and Colmes (FOX), Hardball (MSNBC), Late Edition (CNN), NewsNight with Aaron Brown (CNN), O'Reilly Factor (FOX), Reliable Sources (CNN), Rivera Live (CNBC), Washington Journal (C-SPAN) and talk radio shows across the United States. He has a bachelors degree from Princeton University and a doctorate in American history from Brown University.
Yes, but if their methodology for some reason really favors W, it might mean it's even tighter.
I AM THE GOD OF POLLS TO BE RELEASED IN THE NEAR FUTURE! TREMBLE AND MARK IT DOWN!
you people talk too much about polls. Why is it not good that Gallup has Bush +5?
Wait and see people then look at the sample then discuss
Actually the ABC side of the WP/ABC Poll had it 49 to 48...Bush. Marshall is probably getting his info from Rather at CBS or its the Time Poll....Gallop I think will be better for Bush than 48% but he did have a bad week do to the explosives b.s. and should be turning now as we speak as the Asama news cycle gets into high gear...
Perhaps it is a CBS/NY Times poll. He seemed to have had the info on the NYTroGate story before it was published in the NY Times. In fact, NY Times admitted that they published it before they wanted to because it had leaked to the internet.
THAT'S RIGHT--AND DON'T YOU FORGET IT!!! ;-]
Gallup could easily be 48-45, as Gallup does not make any effort to adjust for party ID. If they get a more heavily Democrat sample this time, it could look like the race is getting closer.
I dont think its a Gallup poll. I would think Gallup, being the biggest of them all would release on Monday... the day before.
Because Gallups last poll was Bush up 5. So now if he is up 3 he has lost 2 points. OY these polls are making me nuts. I am getting a glass of wine!
The Wash Post poll comes out every day at 5:00pm, so I would think that is the one.
I agree. Gallup and Time will be released tomorrow, most likely. It's probably CBS/NY Times.
I'm going to guess it is the CBS/NYT poll, because the reported margin is 48-45, which is very similar to the last CBS/NYT poll. In fact, it would be a one point improvement over the previous 47-45 result (with Nader included). If so, Bush is in great shape, because this poll tends to be overly infested with Rats.
WAPO is already out.. dont know why they did it early, but was out before 12:00pm today..
because it's just in some people's wiring to be chicken littles... doom and gloomers...
Whoever's up in the last Gallup poll wins, right?
No.. its if the lead is 50+ then he wins.. usually.
WaPo has been releasing early on Sundays so that they get talked about on the talk shows. They did it last Sunday too.
Not actually. Just keep looking at the averages of the major reputable polls, and you will see Bush remains about 3 points up from Kerry,a nd at the 50% mark.
Looking good to me...I actaully believed with the weekend polling and all, and the tilt of the MSM and certain pollsters (Zogby vocally being a Kerry support this year--although if one checked closely they would have noticed he has long been a Democrat supporter), that Bush would be down by 2-3% by tonight. All this has actaully been great news for Bush. He polls much better during the week.
What does he know?
If Bush is up 5 in Gallup I'd take it anyday. Pretty much spells doom for Kerry.
None of this matters, folks. What matters is whether you and I are doing what we can to get people to vote for Bush. Polls are damn interesting, but not a lock.