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Bush Leads, Uncertainty Reigns (CBS Poll, B49/K46)
CBS News ^ | 10/31/04 | CBS

Posted on 10/31/2004 3:18:54 PM PST by nopey23

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To: LS

Someone please explain ....
For those who already cast a ballot the breakdown is
51% for Bush and 43% for Kerry. Since they did cast
a vote that means 94% cast a vote for Bush or Kerry
and 6% cast a vote for ???.

What am I missing ?


61 posted on 10/31/2004 3:38:03 PM PST by Gern Blandstone ( Absentee voter crowd absent)
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To: Torie

Those all have weight, I agree. But also working on Bush's side is that he was an unknown quanity in 2000, some of his base stayed home in 2000 after the DUI attack, and we are at war with terrorist organizations, which most people trust him to better deal with.


62 posted on 10/31/2004 3:38:27 PM PST by xuberalles
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To: Halls

"A poll by CBS showing Bush ahead? I love it! If that doesn't say Bush is going to win I don't know what will!!"

You're right. THIS THING MUST BE GOING TO BE A BLOWOUT OF MOOReISH PROPORTIONS!!!!!!!!!


63 posted on 10/31/2004 3:38:57 PM PST by SolomoninSouthDakota (John Kerry purposefully went after the wrong goose in the wrong place at the wrong time.)
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To: granite

Me too. I always believe good will prevail.


64 posted on 10/31/2004 3:38:59 PM PST by xuberalles
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To: Torie
I understand that but these guys get paid to do this for a living. A professional pollster should be able to get good data on the quantity and quality of new registrants. From there the math is easy.

For Kerry to get to 50%, he has to get 4 million more votes while Bush holds steady. I'm not buying it, the Amish said they are voting this time and they are voting for BUSH! LOL

65 posted on 10/31/2004 3:39:26 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: nopey23

Ah jeeze, here comes the C-BS hit piece.....!


Headline: Kerry Comes Back!

Hate to be a sour puss, but I don't trust Dano farther than I can throw 'em - which ain't far!


66 posted on 10/31/2004 3:40:10 PM PST by macsmind76 ("thou shalt not get away with it!")
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To: KoRn

Yes..and they were one of the more accurate ones in 2000


67 posted on 10/31/2004 3:40:12 PM PST by madison46 (I now suffer from election cynicism.)
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To: Merry

Is 8 percent considered a landslide. I think it will be 8 points.


68 posted on 10/31/2004 3:40:50 PM PST by granite (IT IS UP TO US NOW.)
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To: RocketMan1

:-} Yeah, I know the theories but I've never seen hard data to support them. But I have seen the theory morph into a law this election cycle. Its like clockwork.


69 posted on 10/31/2004 3:41:42 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: kjam22

why?


70 posted on 10/31/2004 3:41:45 PM PST by tagawgrag
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To: Gern Blandstone

Maybe 6% stated that they had already voted, but refused to say who they had voted for?


71 posted on 10/31/2004 3:42:37 PM PST by EllaMinnow (On November 2, keep in mind what mattered most on 9-11.)
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To: Dog
Thanks for the ping...I've been out all afternoon.

Did you see these hysterical lines from today's Minneapolis Star Tribune? They released a poll showing Kerry up 9 pts, way outside other polls. Here's what their pollster said:

"You're not going to see Kerry winning by 8 points, and that lead in the poll may be a little high. The poll is very consistent with a whole lot of other results, so no one can disagree with it."

Bush also could be helped by the fact that the Minnesota Poll has, since 1996, consistently found that starting the Friday night before the election, the electorate becomes more conservative and ends up voting more Republican.

Ha Ha! Those pesky voters keep getting more conservative after Friday....LOLOLOL!
72 posted on 10/31/2004 3:43:20 PM PST by Timeout (Just hours to go....before we sleep!)
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To: Darkwolf377

Kerry's range has been 46 to 47 awhile now and Bushes has been 48 to 49...now in the last week we have had Bush at 50 and over on major polls not tracking....tracking has shown a tie this weekend but a 2 to 3 + for Bush during the week. Many now say that it looks like Bush is getting the undecided but he only needs a little. Bush is at 50 % or better now as we speak and will probably get 51 % of the vote to Kerry's 48 and who ever less than 1. The State polls from Mason Dixon are the ones to hang your hat on.


73 posted on 10/31/2004 3:43:20 PM PST by IndependantVoter
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To: JazzX
I haven't felt this much tension since the 2002 Red Wings/Avalanche Western Conference Finals.

Let's hope this one's over as early as that game 7 was. And that the French guy (Patrick Roy/John Kerry) is taunted by the audience after leaving the stage.

74 posted on 10/31/2004 3:43:41 PM PST by Numbers Guy
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To: nopey23
Bush is ahead 51% to 43% among early voters!
75 posted on 10/31/2004 3:43:51 PM PST by West Coast Conservative
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To: Timeout

I just read that......isn't that a hoot.


76 posted on 10/31/2004 3:47:17 PM PST by Dog ( Message to Edwards : "REAL MEN DON'T PRIMP (Especially WITH COMPACTS)".)
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To: unspun
What in the world is Matthew Dowd doing saying there is only a 3% edge? I doubt that he even said this, coming from seeBS.

Dowd has consistently said that this was a 2-3 point race for months.

77 posted on 10/31/2004 3:48:04 PM PST by AHerald ("Be what you is, cuz if you be what you ain't, then you ain't what you is.")
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To: Numbers Guy

Does Anyone know when Gallup posts their next numbers?? Please let us know. Thanks.


78 posted on 10/31/2004 3:48:23 PM PST by easy.nyc1
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To: Cableguy

Thanks for the ping. Looks like steady as she goes on these national polls, still waiting for Time and especially Gallup.


79 posted on 10/31/2004 3:48:52 PM PST by kesg
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To: andy58-in-nh
And PUCK THE FUNDITS!

Well...I have heard of "Play[ing] on words" but "play on letters"! Kudos for creativity!!!

80 posted on 10/31/2004 3:50:33 PM PST by rjmeagle (Do Not Cast Pearls Before Swine (Dems)!!!)
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