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CBS/NY Times Poll Internals [Excellent News for Bush]
CBS/NY Times / PoliPundit ^ | October 31, 2004 | Alexander K. McClure

Posted on 10/31/2004 8:12:00 PM PST by West Coast Conservative

As most of you know, we here at Polipundit.com are not enthusiastic supporters of either the New York Times or CBS News, but there are some very interesting findings in their latest poll showing President Bush up 48%-45%. You can find the polls at the New York Times website. I cannot link to it.

John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever.

President Bush has a 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable rating. That is his best rating since last December.

Undecided voters lean to President Bush 50%-47%, validating the Pew finding and calling the Gallup number into question.

66% of Bush voters strongly favor their candidate.

50% of Kerry voters strongly favor their candidate.

By a 49%-34% margin, voters expect President Bush to win.

President Bush has a 49%-44% job approval rating.

The right track today is 43%. In 1996, it was only 39%.

48% of voters will vote on national security issues; only 33% on domestic issues.

By a 54%-29%, voters believe the Bush Administration has made them safer.

53% of voters do not think that Kerry agrees with their priorities, his worst number ever. 42% believe he has the same.

48% of voters do not think that Bush agrees with their priorities. 49% believe he does share their priorities.

52% of voters think Kerry has leadership qualities, his lowest number ever.

62% of voters think President Bush has leadership qualities.

57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.

60% believe Kerry says what people want to hear. Only 36% say that about President Bush.

53% of Americans say we did the right think in Iraq. Only 42% disagree.

31% say their families are better off than they were four years ago. 40% say about the same.

Most importantly, the percentage of voters call themselves a liberal has declined to 17%, the lowest number since 1997. 35% call themselves conservative.


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush; bushvictory; cbs; cbsnews; cbsnewsnyt; kerry; kewl; nytimes; poll; polls
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1 posted on 10/31/2004 8:12:02 PM PST by West Coast Conservative
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To: third try; Hiskid

Good poll internals. Ping


2 posted on 10/31/2004 8:14:49 PM PST by reformedliberal (Springsteen Concert: Kerry's Farewell Tour)
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To: West Coast Conservative
BUSH BLOWOUT!
3 posted on 10/31/2004 8:14:50 PM PST by Viet-Boat-Rider (((KERRY IS A NARCISSISTIC LIAR, GOLDBRICKER, AND TRAITOR!)))
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To: West Coast Conservative
Looks great. A sleepless night for the RATS tonight.

Bush 296-242

Bush wins OH and FL

Kerry picks up NH

Bush picks up IO, WI, NM

50.9% - 47.4%

4 posted on 10/31/2004 8:15:55 PM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: West Coast Conservative

Can you say "landslide"???

I thought you could....


5 posted on 10/31/2004 8:15:56 PM PST by clee1 (Islam is a deadly plague; liberalism is the AIDS virus that prevents us from defending ourselves.)
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To: West Coast Conservative; queenkathy; Grampa Dave; RonDog

Most interesting and encouraging.!


6 posted on 10/31/2004 8:16:13 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (A Proud member of Free Republic ~~The New Face of the Fourth Estate since 1996.)
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To: West Coast Conservative

Good. I have decided to believe this poll instead of the Gallup Poll, and now I can get some sleep. If you see a poll you don't like, just Freep for about five more minutes and the world will be rosey again.


7 posted on 10/31/2004 8:16:38 PM PST by speedy
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To: West Coast Conservative
Strong stuff.

52-47 sounds doable.

And that would mean around 350 EV...

8 posted on 10/31/2004 8:16:52 PM PST by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: West Coast Conservative

Interesting BUMP


9 posted on 10/31/2004 8:16:58 PM PST by Texas_Jarhead
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To: West Coast Conservative
57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.

Ouch! that's gonna hurt Wednesday morning...

10 posted on 10/31/2004 8:17:06 PM PST by Vortex (Garbage in, Garbage Out)
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To: West Coast Conservative
I feel a thousand times better after having read a few of those lines.

Pray, pray, pray! And GOTV!

11 posted on 10/31/2004 8:17:10 PM PST by NetSurfer (Proud member of the Pajama-Wearing Lunatic Fringe)
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To: West Coast Conservative
No complacency! Forget the polls!

Democrats for Bush Flyer -- Print it, copy it, distribute it
12 posted on 10/31/2004 8:17:29 PM PST by Antoninus (A conservative bases his politics on his morals. ... A liberal bases his morals on his politics.)
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To: West Coast Conservative

What is the party breakdown?


13 posted on 10/31/2004 8:17:42 PM PST by guitar Josh
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To: West Coast Conservative
This sounds really good for Bush.

So what's with all the polls showing a virtual tie?

14 posted on 10/31/2004 8:18:07 PM PST by Jorge
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To: West Coast Conservative

this is good news! If I don't have a nervous breakdown betweeen now and Tuesday night, it's going to be a miracle!


15 posted on 10/31/2004 8:18:08 PM PST by RepubMommy
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To: Viet-Boat-Rider
I was a liberal pre 9-11.

My values have changed for the better since then. I value country over party now.

16 posted on 10/31/2004 8:18:12 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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To: pbrown

Welcome to the fold!


17 posted on 10/31/2004 8:19:01 PM PST by KoRn
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To: West Coast Conservative

Get out and Vote!! Get your friends and family to vote!! We need EVERYONE who supports Bush to vote!! Turnout is EVERYTHING!!!


18 posted on 10/31/2004 8:19:06 PM PST by CurlyBill (Voter Fraud is one of the primary campaign strategies of the Democrats!)
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To: pbrown

Welcome, glad you came over from the dark side.


19 posted on 10/31/2004 8:19:27 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (A Proud member of Free Republic ~~The New Face of the Fourth Estate since 1996.)
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To: Jorge
So what's with all the polls showing a virtual tie? >

You can't cheat if it's not close...

20 posted on 10/31/2004 8:19:44 PM PST by Vortex (Garbage in, Garbage Out)
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To: West Coast Conservative
Today started out rough, especially with the Fox News poll, but this data is starting to make sense, defining the perimeters , of this race.

The graphs look like the trendlines are converging and Bush is dropping while Kerry aspires; however, given the internals of this poll, those trendlines are deceptive.

The rallies in Mpls and Cincinnati run against the trendlines. Why would 40,000+ pack stadiums to see a the President if he is a "loser"? It makes no sense. Is Kerry getting those kinds of crowds? No, he's getting 12,000 in his backyard of NH! The Big Mo has finally hit and it's at Bush's back!

21 posted on 10/31/2004 8:20:42 PM PST by MHT
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To: West Coast Conservative
53% of Americans say we did the right think in Iraq. Only 42% disagree.

Think? Good post ... but are you for real?

22 posted on 10/31/2004 8:20:53 PM PST by BluH2o
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To: West Coast Conservative

So put away the razorblades, Gallup-watchers


23 posted on 10/31/2004 8:21:01 PM PST by Darkwolf377
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To: KoRn

Thank you. It feels like I'm wrapped in a warm coat on a wintery day.


24 posted on 10/31/2004 8:21:01 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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To: CurlyBill
Got my new tag line ready for dems demise Tuesday
25 posted on 10/31/2004 8:21:07 PM PST by spokeshave (Strategery + Schardenfreude = Stratenschardenfreudery)
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To: pbrown

Welcome to the party, pbrown!


26 posted on 10/31/2004 8:22:34 PM PST by NCPAC (Social Darwinists Unite!)
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To: dvwjr; Dales; RWR8189; ambrose; LS; counterpunch; skaterboy; Iowa Granny; Illinois Rep; kesg; ...
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_polls/poll103104.pdf

According to this, the party ID:

245 Rep RV, weighted
246 Dem RV, weighted
248 Ind RV, weighted

The internals in this poll are amazing for Bush. In almost every important asset, he does well. Even the undecideds go 50/47 for Bush.

27 posted on 10/31/2004 8:22:41 PM PST by Cableguy (Bush wins 53/47)
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To: West Coast Conservative

"John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever."

This is key.


28 posted on 10/31/2004 8:23:11 PM PST by wolf24
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Thank you.

They are indeed the dark side. I didn't come over by myself, I brought 6 family members with me.

29 posted on 10/31/2004 8:23:16 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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To: finnman69

You're close. Except Bush will take MN but not WI.


30 posted on 10/31/2004 8:23:40 PM PST by ottothedog
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To: reformedliberal

Well, I was optimistic yesterday, but I have become a little worried about the voter turn out in Florida. I sure hope Rove knows what he is doing there, and with Jeb as governor you would think they would have a huge advantage, but I hear this talk about large numbers of early voters being democrats. It is driving me nuts.


31 posted on 10/31/2004 8:23:58 PM PST by manx
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To: West Coast Conservative

This is probably the most important thing ...

66% of Bush voters strongly favor their candidate.
50% of Kerry voters strongly favor their candidate.

THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE TURNOUT NUMBERS - WE HAVE A MORE MOTIVATED BASE.

The other numbers are good, but they almost worry me that they may have oversample our side ... eg. only 17% liberals. Is that right?


32 posted on 10/31/2004 8:24:29 PM PST by WOSG (George W Bush / Dick Cheney - Right for our Times!)
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To: NCPAC
Thank you.

I can't explain the difference in me. I'm just different now. I'm happier and more optimistic than before.

I always felt like I was walking around with a dark cloud over my head......but, no longer.

33 posted on 10/31/2004 8:26:23 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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To: West Coast Conservative

There's a set of poll results worth framing and hanging on the wall.


34 posted on 10/31/2004 8:26:28 PM PST by Redbob
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To: Vortex
57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.

Ouch! that's gonna hurt Wednesday morning...

and no socialized medicine to help with his depression on wednesday either.

35 posted on 10/31/2004 8:26:52 PM PST by mlocher (america is a sovereign state)
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It's not voters that decide an election, It's those that count the votes!.......Joseph Stalin

My Pastor quoted this from the Pulpit this morning.Calling all poll watchers?

36 posted on 10/31/2004 8:28:34 PM PST by oldpath (Just when I got my degree in political Science, I need one for political Psychiatry. Those dems!)
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To: ottothedog

Bush will take Wisconsin.

See http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/poll-update-103104.html.


37 posted on 10/31/2004 8:34:17 PM PST by kesg
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To: West Coast Conservative

I'm thinking a lot more than 50% of the undecideds will pull the lever, or whatever, for President Bush. When push comes to shove and they're alone in the voting booth, and no one ever need know how they voted, they'll choose Bush! Their concern for their family's security will override everything!


38 posted on 10/31/2004 8:34:50 PM PST by SuziQ (Bush in 2004-Because we MUST!!!)
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To: manx

See http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/poll-update-103104.html


39 posted on 10/31/2004 8:34:57 PM PST by kesg
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To: pbrown

"I was a liberal pre 9-11. My values have changed for the better since then. I value country over party now."

God Bless You.

Conservatives arent ogres, as the MSM/liberal academia wants you to believe ... some thoughts about conservatism I was having before I coincidentally read your post ... I hope you dont mind if I share as "food for thought":

Conservatism in America is really old-fashioned classical Liberalism of our founding fathers, believing in:
- individual responsibility and personal liberty as two sides of the same coin
- belief that there is a right, there is wrong, and there's a difference (ie, 'just say no' to moral relativism)
- Government serves the people and is constructed to protect peoples rights, liberties, life and property. (John Locke's ideals that were written into our Declaration of Independence by Thomas Jefferson)
- being skeptical of 'wishful thinking' social engineering projects, instead understanding human nature as imperfect, habit-based and not always rational. Such reality requires Govt ("if men were angels, there would be no need of Govt" - Adams), but a skepticism about power ("power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely" - Lord Acton)

If we act on the principle of liberty, we immediately get opposed by the socialists, communists and others who demand 'equality' as the highest good. Equality of result is the enemy of freedom, and so conservatives end up being the 'bad people' for opposing illegitimate forms of creating equality through various forms of Govt sanctioned theft, extortion, racism, etc. examples are racial quotas, punitive taxation, socialized industries, welfare-state programs designed to enforce 'equality', etc.

The modern American Conservative believes in preserving the kind of country our founder's idealized, innovating to make the country better but sticking to the principles of liberty that our nation was founded on. The enduring success and value of these political ideals is proof that:
"Good Ideas Never Go Out of Style"


40 posted on 10/31/2004 8:38:27 PM PST by WOSG (George W Bush / Dick Cheney - Right for our Times!)
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To: Vortex

"57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.

Ouch! that's gonna hurt Wednesday morning..."

You know the bad news ... the other 43% are already on some form of anti-depressant...!!


41 posted on 10/31/2004 8:39:49 PM PST by WOSG (George W Bush / Dick Cheney - Right for our Times!)
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To: West Coast Conservative

Great news. I have two predictions now.....

Best Case:

Bush - 349 Electoral Votes
Kerry - 189 Electoral Votes

Probable Case:

Bush - 310 Electoral Votes
Kerry - 228 Electoral Votes


42 posted on 10/31/2004 8:44:12 PM PST by MissouriConservative (BUSH: "Let's Roll" - KERRY: "Let's Roll Over")
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To: finnman69

Excellent!


43 posted on 10/31/2004 8:44:46 PM PST by Frank_2001 (Now get out and Vote Republican on Nov. 2!!!)
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To: WOSG
All the things you said. Those were the things I was brought up to believe.

I never knew the types of parties that were grouped together with the Democrats till 9-11.

For the first time I opened my eyes and saw just what the Democrats supported.

When I looked around and saw what trash had stolen the party, I was no longer a part of it.

I'm sorry that it took something like 9-11 to open my eyes to see exactely what America was facing.

44 posted on 10/31/2004 8:49:16 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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To: West Coast Conservative
Drudge sez that this is mirroring the internals of the parties. However, one party pollster told me that we need to always be 4% up to be even, given the unknown factor of the 527's newly registered voters.

This means that a 3% lead is actually a 1% trail, 4-pt lead is even, and a 7-8% lead generally means we're leading outside the margin of error (but not recount).

Not to be a downer, but given the unknowns of registration and lawyering this cycle, never be comforted until we're doubly out of the margin of error. The good news from this is that most of our solid red states are in this category and that's a strong starting point!

45 posted on 10/31/2004 8:50:48 PM PST by MHT
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To: WOSG
I hope you don't mind that I printed out your post. It was beautiful and I could see myself in the things you said.

God Bless you.

46 posted on 10/31/2004 8:53:02 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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To: West Coast Conservative
"62% of voters think President Bush has leadership qualities."

I remember election night (or early morning) four years ago when Gore announced his challenge, George W. Bush was calm and reassuring to his supporters. He quickly and effectively responded to the first crisis of his Presidency before he became President. I thought that he showed superb leadership qualities, then, and have never doubted about it since.

47 posted on 10/31/2004 8:56:51 PM PST by AlienCrossfirePlayer (USA needs "W" for 4 more years)
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To: pbrown

Not at all!

That is gratifying.

btw, more of my thoughts at this blog, which is currently focussed on and called "Liberating Iraq":

http://freedomstruth.blogspot.com


48 posted on 10/31/2004 8:58:45 PM PST by WOSG (George W Bush / Dick Cheney - Right for our Times!)
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To: West Coast Conservative

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1264375/posts


49 posted on 10/31/2004 8:59:43 PM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: WOSG

Thanks. I put that link on my favorites list.


50 posted on 10/31/2004 9:17:45 PM PST by processing please hold (All I ever need to know about Islam, I learned on 9-11)
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